There seems to be little doubt that there is some strength in the cold rolled and coated products markets. The lead times are extended with ArcelorMittal being into May on galvanized according to one of their automotive service centers. We heard from a couple of the conversion mills who told us their orders books were […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel and the companies that use the products are becoming more optimistic about both the short term and medium term success for their companies. Earlier this week we began the process of collecting data regarding various trends involved with the flat rolled steel industry. One of the key proprietary […]
Many of you have read that hot rolled is the weakest product and that there is a significant spread between domestic hot rolled base prices and those of cold rolled and galvanized steel. Even with the energy markets being in the so-called “crapper” impacting the hot rolled order books, we are seeing stronger steel mill […]
As we mentioned in our previous article, flat rolled steel mill lead times have moved out by a week on hot rolled and as much as two weeks on cold rolled and galvanized. Galvalume lead times have remained decent but have not extended at this time but, that is to be expected for seasonal reasons. […]
The following article is written by Spencer Johnson of FC Stone LLC. With six years of experience, Spencer provides his customers strategic and tactical advice on protecting themselves against commodity price volatility in the steel markets. Spencer rotates weekly futures articles with Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC. Spencer can be reached at spencer.johnson@intlfcstone.com. If […]
First, a note to our Premium level members (subscribers) we will produce another Premium supplemental issue of our newsletter for you tomorrow afternoon. The newsletter will contain the most recent CPIP (construction put in place) data. We also will release the results of this week’s flat rolled steel market trends analysis in the form of […]
We saw mixed results for flat rolled steel price ranges and averages this week. We saw modest gains in hot rolled, cold rolled and Galvalume while galvanized remained the same as last week. Lead times remained short on hot rolled which continues to be the weakest product. We are also beginning to see “inquire” only […]
One of the important keys to understanding the strength or weakness of the flat rolled market in the United States is to follow the steel mill lead time announcements made to their customers. We can then compare them against prior weeks (and the results of our market trends report which is conducted twice per month) […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and our Managing Price Risk I & II instructor. Assisting Andre with tonight’s article is Jack Marshall also associated with CrunchRisk. Here is how Andre and Jack saw trading […]
Hot rolled prices, which have moved $45 per ton (higher) since early December, did not move this past week. Hot rolled has been the weakest of products which both SDI and AK Steel alluded to in their earnings conference calls earlier today. However, we have seen lead times improve on cold rolled and coated steels […]
As part of our Premium level service, Steel Market Update (SMU) analyzes the service center shipment and inventory data and provides a short term forecast for carbon flat rolled steel shipments and inventories then we use our proprietary model to determine if distributor inventories are in Apparent Excess or a Deficit situation. Our forecast also […]
We are seeing a divergence in the normal spread between hot rolled lead times and those of cold rolled and coated products. Normally, we would see HRC lead times at just a couple of weeks less than that of the other “higher value” products. With the demise of the energy segment of the industry that […]
Steel Dynamics’ struggling recycling segment widened the company’s net loss to $253 million in fourth quarter 2015. It was determined that the book value of the metals recycling segment recorded $435 million in non-cash goodwill and other related asset impairment charge. Excluding the metals recycling charges, adjusted net income was $22 million on net sales […]
In the market analysis questionnaire concluded late last week we asked a number of questions regarding foreign steel and the potential for another uptick in foreign market penetration with the domestic mills raising flat rolled steel prices. We asked if the mill price announcements were opening the door and making foreign steel prices more competitive? […]
I will be at the AHR Expo on Monday of this week (January 25th). I will only be there for one day due to other conflicts on my schedule. If you are planning on attending and would like to meet with me, the best way to find me is either through text or a phone […]
Based on the results of our flat rolled steel market analysis, all of the flat rolled lead times are averaging longer lead times than what we measured one year ago. The SMU steel market questionnaire found the average lead time on hot rolled coil (HRC) was 3.91 weeks, up from a 3.63 week average reported […]
As lead times move out (see article above) we traditionally find the mills less willing to negotiate flat rolled steel prices. We asked those taking our mid-January flat rolled steel market survey to provide us information regarding the willingness of the U.S. steel mills to discount or negotiate steel prices. Hot rolled, which has been […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and our Managing Price Risk I & II instructor. Assisting Andre with tonight’s article is Jack Marshall also associated with CrunchRisk. Here is how Andre and Jack saw trading […]
The domestic steel mills announced a new round of price increases earlier this month. Steel prices are responding by moving higher, at least by a portion of the second increase. We are hearing from our sources that the mills have been able to collect $40-$50 or essentially all of the first price increase by this […]
Twice per month Steel Market Update conducts a review of the flat rolled steel markets and one of the items on our questionnaire is how far out are steel mill spot lead times. We also follow lead times as published by the domestic mills to their customers which we share with our readers from time […]
The prices we have referenced in tonight’s issue do not reflect the new price increase announcements. We understand that there are new prices floating in the marketplace that has galvanized and Galvalume base prices at $28.50/cwt and hot rolled well over $400 per ton. However, the numbers we have been collecting since Monday are showing […]
Nucor Sheet Mill Group got the flat rolled pricing ball rolling earlier today as they advised their customers by emailed letter that base prices will rise on new spot orders by a minimum of: Hot Rolled: $20 per ton ($1.00/cwt)Cold Rolled: $30 per ton ($1.50/cwt)Galvanized: $30 per ton ($1.50/cwt) Nucor did not advise of any […]
We discussed mill lead times a little earlier this week based on the first two days of data received by our flat rolled steel market analysis (survey). We also reported on what we were seeing from the mills themselves last week when we went through and analyzed a number of the lead times being published […]
I was speaking with a large service center which buys mostly hot rolled this afternoon. We were discussing what each of our opinions were regarding the direction of pricing and how 1st quarter will ultimately come out. In the process this executive (who buy the way will be attending our Leadership Summit Conference) told us […]
We saw very modest movement in flat rolled steel prices since we last reported prices on Tuesday, December 29th. With most buyers and steel mill commercial people on holiday our new flat rolled market analysis picked up some movement at the upper end of our range in hot rolled, a reduction of the lower end […]
When SMU was at the recent HARDI conference in December we remember that many of the executives were not interested in taking inventory positions as they felt there still could be more room to fall. From our perspective, looking at prices from a historical perspective, the domestic mills had already suffered lower prices than what […]
Manufacturing ended the year with general global slowing as production and new orders declined. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI registered 50.9 in December, down from 51.2 in November. The global PMI average for 2015 failed to surpass the average reading for the prior two years. PMI indices for China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and […]
The flat rolled steel price roller coaster did not do the steel mills or companies holding inventory any favors this past year. We saw hot rolled prices drop from just below $650 per net ton (average) at the beginning of the year to the low point of $360 per ton achieved the week of December […]
The Chicago Business Barometer (or Chicago PMI) fell at its fastest rate since 2009, down 5.8 points to 42.9 in December. The drop took analysts by surprise who were projecting a reading in the 48 to 50 range. MNI Indicators notes that the December reading is 16.5 points below the January 2015 high of 59.4. […]
This is normally the week when many buyers (and sellers) of steel tend to take an extended holiday and this year is no exception. Without a large number of price points to reference we have chosen to keep our prices in line with what we reported this past week. Here is how we see spot […]