The debate these days seems to be centered around how much inventory is really out there, how much is incoming (especially from foreign sources) and how much flat rolled will buyers need to buy come this summer? Earlier today I asked a small steel mill if they believed the low coated inventories (1.65 months) according […]
Steel Market Update is asked many times where we think flat rolled steel prices are heading. Our current SMU Price Momentum Indicator is at “Neutral” which means we believe the market to be in transition and, prices could move in either direction from this point. We adjusted our indicator just recently from Higher to Neutral […]
Flat rolled prices were essentially unchanged this week with the exception of hot rolled coil which seems to have a few more “legs” in the product due to an improving energy market and limited foreign steel imports. The pressure on HRC right now is coming from the two new players: Big River Steel and Acero […]
On Friday Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our flat rolled steel Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral from Higher. The key reason behind our decision to move our indicator is “indecision” in the marketplace. More about that in a moment. The current market cycle began on October 21, 2016 when the domestic mills were able to […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) just concluded our early April flat rolled steel market trends analysis. A portion of that study is focused on steel mill lead times as we look to see if there are any changes in the trend which could affect flat rolled steel price negotiations. Lead times remained constant compared to what […]
As with steel mill lead times discussed earlier in this newsletter, those responding to our flat rolled market trends questionnaire reported the steel mills as modestly willing to negotiate all but Galvalume flat rolled steel pricing. Thirty-eight percent of our respondents reported the domestic mills as willing to negotiate hot rolled pricing. This is 9 […]
Flat rolled steel prices are showing themselves as being in a “mature” market having been on the rise for most of the 24 weeks since prices began their climb at the end of October 2016. We peaked out on hot rolled at $655 per ton over the last two weeks. This week we moved off […]
At the end of March the domestic steel mills cancelled any open portion of their ferrous scrap orders for March delivery with their scrap suppliers. This is always the first sign of an expectation of a drop in ferrous scrap prices once the negotiations begin in earnest for April delivery. Even with the tight supplies […]
As we moved around the industry trying to gauge where flat rolled steel prices are this week, we found most buyers as being optimistic but perhaps not as many as two weeks ago. There seems to be a growing question about whether the market has “peaked” or not. Everyone wants to know where prices will […]
We are getting mixed messages regarding “real” lead times coming out of the domestic steel mills. The information we are sharing below comes from actual mill lead times coming directly from the producing mills to their customers. This is different than the lead time averages collected by Steel Market Update and shared with our readers […]
I had a couple of conversations earlier today regarding the status of trade and, in particular, whether or not there could be further trade cases filed by the domestic steel mills or by the U.S. Department of Commerce. At least one mill is hearing that there could be new trade cases. This could become an […]
Last week, Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our mid-March flat rolled steel market trends survey. We invited 670 people to participate in the gathering of data and opinions which resulted in our flat rolled steel market trends analysis presented to our Premium level members last Friday in the form of a Power Point presentation. It […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel having been bouncing like the proverbial rubber ball over the past six weeks as they try to make sense of where steel prices are heading over the near term. Steel Market Update (SMU) asked those responding to our flat rolled steel market trends survey last week where they […]
Flat rolled lead times, which had been stuck in a rut over the past couple of months, have started to move out according to those responding to our flat rolled market trends survey. We are now seeing average lead times on hot rolled close to five weeks (4.81 weeks). We also saw movement in cold […]
The aggressiveness of the flat rolled steel mills was minimal on Galvalume steels this week but other products appear to be open for discussion, according to those taking the SMU flat rolled market trends analysis survey just completed earlier today (Thursday, March 23, 2017). We found 47 percent of our respondents reporting the domestic mills […]
Flat rolled prices moved higher over the past week based on SMU sources. Even so, there is much discussion as to what direction prices will go from here and we will have more on that subject later this week. We did receive comments from a large service center that our readers might find of interest […]
Demand for HVAC products was coined as being “good” or “very good” by the wholesalers who participated in the monthly HARDI galvanized steel conference call. The wholesalers who spoke on the call earlier today reported strong first quarter sales for their full product line but a few complained of lower steel sales compared to year […]
Steel mill lead times are one of the key indicators of future direction of steel prices. Steel buyers must be aware of the amount of time it takes a supplier to produce and ship a new order. Lead times and balancing inventories go hand in hand. When lead times shrink, buyers can pull back on […]
Over the course of a few weeks, buyers and sellers of flat rolled steels changed their view of the direction of flat rolled steel price direction. In the middle of February only 14 percent of those responding to our flat rolled steel market trends analysis survey reported prices would move higher with the majority (52 […]
When we conducted our flat rolled market trends analysis during the middle of February we found 20 percent of our respondents had concerns regarding supply during calendar year 2017. The majority of respondents (63 percent) expressed no concerns about supply. As we move forward to last week the majority is still expressing no concerns about […]
A quick note about our galvanized index: Effective today we are adjusting the coating extra being used on our .060” G90 galvanized benchmark items from $69 per ton to $78 per ton. We are continuing to use the US Steel extra for guidance. So, the change that you see in our G90 item is a […]
Flat rolled steel prices are reacting to the two $30 per ton price announcements made by the domestic steel mills over the past month. The culprit (or scapegoat depending on your perspective) has been the rapid rise in ferrous scrap prices which are the primary inputs for electric arc furnace (EAF) steel mills and is […]
Hot rolled average lead times remain extended at 4.38 weeks compared to the 3.79 weeks SMU was reporting one year ago. Cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume lead times were running close to or just below last year’s reported average. Lead time is the average amount of time it takes for a new order of a […]
Flat rolled steel mills have become less enthusiastic about negotiating prices for new orders of hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume steels. Based on the results of the flat rolled steel market trends analysis coming out of the survey we have been conducting over the past four days. We found 33 percent of the […]
Flat rolled steel prices firmed a little with benchmark hot rolled up $10 and cold rolled the same. Galvanized price average remained the same and Galvalume was up $5 per ton. We heard from a number of steel buyers that they were waiting to see what was going to happen with scrap prices (expectation was […]
Scrap prices moved higher as scrap dealers and the domestic steel mills finished their March negotiations. With prime grades of scrap settling at about twice the $30 per gross ton originally thought a couple weeks ago, the sheet mills have got a decision to make. Do they take prices up or have they raised prices […]
Flat rolled steel prices rose this past week on every item with the exception of the SteelBenchmarker hot rolled index. Steel Market Update (SMU) saw benchmark hot rolled as up $25 per ton to $625 per ton. Platts moved up $5 per ton to $630 per ton and SteelBenchmarker, who reports prices twice per month, […]
Global manufacturing is expanding at the fastest rate in almost six years, according to the latest JP Morgan Global Manufacturing report. The PMI rose to 52.9 in February from 52.7 in January for its highest reading since May 2011. IHS Markit said February’s expansion is continuing a trend it began a year ago and indicates […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel HR futures trading has been very muted this week following last weeks high volumes that resulted from the mill price increase […]
The February ISM Report on Business indicates manufacturing activity expanded in February with the overall economy in a 93rd month of consecutive growth. The PMI was 57.7 percent, up from 56 percent in January. Looking at it from a 3 month moving average, February showed growth at 56.1, up from 54.7. Production at 62.9 gained […]