The steel market is waiting anxiously to see what happens June 1 when the tariff exclusions are set to expire for Canada, Mexico and the European Union. Some expect the exclusions to be extended as trade negotiations continue. Most expect steel prices to remain steady or move higher, based on an informal canvass of Steel […]
What are the potential long-term implications of the Trump administration steel tariffs, in particular their effects on rerollers in the United States? Steel Market Update canvassed steel executives this week for their views on current market conditions, and the impact of the tariffs on pricing and availability clearly remains a source of concern. “I buy […]
A large manufacturing company that buys a tremendous amount of hot rolled in the spot markets explained to SMU what they were seeing out of the domestic steel mills this week: “The market is relatively calm at the moment. Steel prices have been hovering in the same range for the last four to five weeks. […]
Steel Market Update canvassed the market on May 22 to gather steel executives’ views on supply, demand and pricing in the current environment. Some also shared their thoughts on their biggest challenges today. Below are some of their more insightful comments: Q: Are you seeing any signs that steel prices are going to “break out” […]
Service centers held essentially the same number of months of supply of flat rolled steel inventories at the end of April as they did as of the end of March 2018. SMU Service Center Months of Supply Index for flat rolled (sheet) steel is 2.7 months based on responses from 95 percent of the steel […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel import prices (delivered to USA ports) and domestic (USA) hot rolled coil prices (FOB Domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and […]
Mill lead times, which had been stretching for much of the year, may have turned the corner. Flat rolled lead times are still extended, but appear to be stabilizing, according to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends data. Lead times for hot rolled now average about five and a half weeks, cold rolled about seven […]
Steel mills appear slightly more willing to negotiate spot prices on hot rolled, cold rolled and coated steel than a month ago, according to respondents to this week’s Steel Market Update market trends questionnaire. “They will negotiate, but from a high number,” commented on service center executive. “It depends on the mill, but most are […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market was written by David Feldstein. As the Flack Global Metals Director of Risk Management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled futures market, and we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing futures articles for Steel […]
Flat rolled steel prices were mixed again this week. Benchmark hot rolled saw erosion at the low end and a slight increase at the top end of our range. The net result being HRC is unchanged compared to one week ago. Other products saw similar adjustments with most averages being close to where they were […]
Distributors of products for the HVAC sector expect prices for steel, especially galvanized, to drop in the coming weeks or months. Demand remains strong, they report, but they are keeping inventories lean in anticipation of declining prices. “There is a greater likelihood that prices will go down than go up. With the lead times being […]
Manufacturers and fabricators report that business is good, but it’s certainly not easy. Steel Market Update has recruited a dynamic group of executives who will explore topics ranging from trade and tariffs to automation and logistics on Wednesday, Aug. 29, at SMU’s Steel Summit Conference in Atlanta. The title of their panel is Manufacturing Forecast: […]
Flat rolled and plate steel prices were mixed in what has to be considered yet another quiet week for pricing. Steel buyers have mixed feelings as to where steel prices go from here, with some believing prices have no place to go but up and others looking at the HRC futures market (which is backwardated) […]
SMU’s flat rolled steel Price Momentum Indicator is currently pointing at Neutral meaning sheet steel prices are in transition or have hit a lull. A Neutral reading does not mean flat rolled steel prices will automatically move lower from here just because the previous indication was for higher prices. The injection of the U.S. government […]
Compared to this time last year, flat rolled lead times are highly extended – on all products. Plate lead times, which is not on our graphic, are also highly extended, but we are treating it differently as the domestic mills are on controlled order entry/allocation with their plate customers. Hot rolled lead times are averaging […]
Extended lead times will generally lead to steel mills being stingy about offering “deals” below the company pricing guidelines. Flat rolled steel prices have essentially plateaued. There may be a small number of “deals” out there (is $860 HRC really a “deal?”), but most mills are sticking to their guns. In all four products (hot […]
Global manufacturing started second quarter with a small hop rather than a jump. The JPMorgan Global PMI posted 53.5 in April, up slightly from March’s six-month low of 53.3. “April PMI data signaled a marginal pick-up in the rate of expansion of the global manufacturing sector, the first growth acceleration seen since the turn of […]
Flat rolled and plate steel prices continue to show signs of stability as the market absorbs the most recent decision on Section 232 exclusions (countries) and awaits decisions about individual product exclusions. Steel Market Update continues to reference our SMU Price Momentum Indicator as being at Neutral, but I want to warn our readers that […]
Supply executives report that new orders, production and employment are growing, according to the latest survey by the Institute for Supply Management. The April PMI in the ISM Report on Business registered 57.3, a two-point decline from March. Most of the components of the PMI registered a decrease in percentage points from March, but were […]
Metalforming manufacturers are expecting steady business conditions during the next three months, according to the April 2018 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. PMA members, however, are seeing negative impacts from the Section 232 aluminum and steel tariffs. Orders are expected to remain steady in the next few months. Manufacturers said daily shipping levels […]
This should come as no surprise to our readers, the theoretical spread between foreign steel export prices and the SMU hot rolled coil index average is quite large. However, when looking at foreign steel offers on hot rolled (and there are precious few) which range from $820-$840 per ton, according to SMU sources, the spread […]
Reliance Steel & Aluminum reported record sales of $2.47 billion and record shipments of 1.6 million tons in the first quarter of 2018. “The positive pricing and demand fundamentals experienced in the fourth quarter of 2017 continued through the first quarter of 2018, with pricing momentum building throughout the quarter,” said President and CEO Gregg […]
The number of companies – especially service centers – reporting they have been on allocation or controlled order entry has dwindled over the past couple of weeks. Many companies are reporting extended lead times or an abundance of late deliveries, but no full allocations with their suppliers. The one exception being plate companies, where almost […]
The number of companies – especially service centers – reporting they have been on allocation or controlled order entry has dwindled over the past couple of weeks. Many companies are reporting extended lead times or an abundance of late deliveries, but no full allocations with their suppliers. The one exception being plate companies, where almost […]
Were it not for the surprisingly strong steel demand, the price hikes prompted by the Trump administration tariffs would be a disaster, say manufacturers. As it is, the effects of the Section 232 tariffs are proving troublesome for many companies. President Trump is due to announce May 1 whether his 25 percent tariff on steel […]
“Too many plates spinning right now to try and peg a price direction. The wrong tweet at the wrong time could throw all your planning out the window,” said one manufacturing company to Steel Market Update earlier today, explaining his take on the market. Steel buyers are seeing stability in most products with the possible […]
As a group, flat rolled steel buyers are of the opinion that prices on hot rolled, cold rolled and coated products have plateaued over the near term. However, to a person, the buyers are waiting for May 1st to arrive and then see how President Trump, USTR Robert Lighthizer and the Department of Commerce handle […]
We have been struggling with the decision as to when we should make an adjustment to the SMU Price Momentum Indicator. The issue that has been holding us back for the last week or two is the role the government is playing in the steel market, which muddies the water. We have made the decision […]
We have been struggling with the decision as to when we should make an adjustment to the SMU Price Momentum Indicator. The issue that has been holding us back for the last week or two is the role the government is playing in the steel market, which muddies the water. We have made the decision […]
Based on responses to this week’s Steel Market Update flat rolled market trends questionnaire, mill lead times remain extended, but appear to have stabilized a bit in the past month. Mill lead time, which is the amount of time it takes for the domestic mills to produce a new order taken this week, is one […]