Lead times for spot orders of flat rolled and plate steel products showed initial signs of shortening this week, according to returns from Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level—the longer the lead time, the busier the mill. The current lead times […]
U.S. Steel’s performance in the first quarter of 2020 was better than expected with adjusted EBITDA projected at $30 million. “Our Flat-rolled segment results are expected to be better than anticipated as strong operating performance across our footprint, continued cost improvement, and seasonally strong shipment volumes more than offset the typical seasonality of mining,” said […]
John Packard is taking some time off… As we all hunker down (wondering if that’s the hint of a sore throat when we swallow), it’s easy to feel the walls closing in. The intellectual part of us knows the economy will return to normal eventually (indeed, there’s money to be made when the market comes […]
Our latest look at foreign versus domestic hot rolled prices shows that U.S prices continue to remain advantageous over foreign imports, according to SMU and CRU price indices released earlier this week. The price gap between domestic HRC compared to German and Italian products has widened since our previous price updates, while the East/Southeast Asian […]
Except for galvanized and plate prices, which stayed flat, flat rolled steel saw declines of $10 to $25 per ton last week. The downtrend certainly could have been worse, given the coronavirus crisis, but sources report that steel production and demand remain surprisingly strong. Steel Market Update’s Flat Rolled Price Momentum Indicator remains at Neutral, […]
Distributors supplying galvanized steel to the HVAC market report that demand and prices have remained surprisingly resilient so far, but they fear it’s only a matter of time before their business feels the full effect of the coronavirus crisis. “Your business is going to change. We are in the very early part of that change,” […]
Flat Rolled = 46.1 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 49 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled As prices eroded in February, service centers further reduced their flat rolled inventories 4.6 percent month on month by month’s end, according to adjusted February data compared with January’s final. With 20 shipping days in February compared to […]
We had to change the way we calculate the adjusted data, which will also change how we derive our analysis. Previously, we adjusted the data to mirror the exact mix of service centers that responded to the previous month’s survey. We saw a decrease in participation in the March survey, which we can understand given […]
Steel prices are as unpredictable as the spread of a rogue virus, but one symptom of COVID-19 is likely to be lower steel prices. As of this writing on March 13, the price of flat rolled steel products had yet to see much effect from the global panic over the coronavirus. Steel Market Update’s latest […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s March Steel Sheet Products Monitor Covid-19, the novel coronavirus, has severely disrupted China’s economy. While new cases in China have slowed, thanks particularly to a historically significant containment strategy, Covid-19 has moved on to other countries. These include Italy, Iran and South Korea, but also other areas […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
Steel prices saw only small movement this week, with Galvalume up a bit and plate down a bit. We don’t expect that to be the case moving forward as the market really begins to feel the effects of the coronavirus on the economy and oil prices. In the meantime, Steel Market Update’s Price Momentum Indicators […]
Average mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel saw little change this past week. In fact, according to Steel Market Update’s surveys of the market, lead times have moved up or down by just a day or two, depending on the product, since the beginning of the year. Lead times for steel delivery […]
Our latest look at foreign versus domestic hot rolled prices shows the U.S price advantage remains strong, according to SMU and CRU price indices released earlier this week. The price gap between domestic HRC compared to German and Italian products has widened over our mid-February update, while the East/Southeast Asian price spread has shrunk (but […]
Sheet prices in the U.S. Midwest market fell by $5-9 /s.ton, w/w with HR coil losing the most, assessed at $560 /s.ton. These prices reflect transactions from last week, which were primarily conducted ahead of recently announced mill price increases. While prices fell, the overall volume component fell at a faster rate. Until the price […]
Steel Market Update’s canvass of the market on Monday and Tuesday indicates that flat rolled steel prices have moved up by $10-20 per ton following last week’s price increase announced by domestic steelmakers. With the help of higher scrap prices expected in March, the mills are hoping to reverse the slide prices have experienced since […]
In just a few weeks from the first known case, the COVID-19 outbreak has wreaked havoc on the global manufacturing sector. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI posted a steep decline in February, falling to 47.2 from 50.4 in January, its lowest level since May 2009. New orders and production fell at record rates in […]
U.S. manufacturing activity grew only slightly in February, according to the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. The Institute for Supply Management reported that the February PMI decreased 0.8 points to 50.1, just above the no-change mark of 50. The PMI for new orders fell into contraction at 49.8, while production dropped four points to […]
John Packard is traveling… The mills announced another $40 increase in flat rolled prices this week in the hopes of reversing the recent downturn in steel prices. Instead of an increase, ArcelorMittal released minimum base prices of $620 for hot rolled and $820 for cold rolled and coated. Steel Market Update puts the current benchmark […]
SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a Director at Cargill Risk Management, and […]
With the exception of coated steels, prices continue to weaken as uncertain market conditions and concerns over the potential fallout from China’s coronavirus weigh on market sentiment. Steel Market Update maintains its Price Momentum Indicator at Lower. Here is how we see prices this week: Hot Rolled Coil: SMU price range is $540-$580 per ton […]
Written by: John Packard, President & CEO, Steel Market Update Steel prices in general appear to have weakened further for the fifth week, based on Steel Market Update’s canvass of the market over the past two days. Hindsight being 20/20, SMU arguably could have adjusted its Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Lower earlier than […]
We have adjusted our plate price momentum indicator from neutral to lower. Prices have been dropping over the past couple of weeks, and steel buyers are very negative on the markets right now (see some of the comments in an article above). I have to tell you I am really struggling with all of the […]
Earlier today I moved our Price Momentum Indicator to Lower from Neutral. I explained my reasoning in an article in tonight’s issue. What happens should one of the steel mills announce a price increase within the next couple of weeks? With scrap poised to move higher, and lead times being decent at most of the […]
Mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel have shortened slightly this month, though not yet enough to signal a definite trend. The current numbers suggest the mills are still maintaining relatively healthy order levels, but a change may be in the works. Lead times for steel delivery are an indicator of demand […]
After the early-February blip when SMU reported the foreign versus domestic hot rolled price spread as slightly widening, we now see that foreign prices have declined a bit more than domestic prices. As a result, the price advantage held by U.S.-produced HRC has begun to shrink again, meaning foreign import prices are somewhat more attractive […]
Canadian steel producer Stelco Holdings cited challenging market conditions and an “unprecedented” drop in steel prices for its fourth-quarter loss. Stelco reported a net loss of $27 million for the quarter on sales of $435 million, down from $648 millon in the prior-year quarter, due to lower steel prices and shipping volumes. Full year net […]
By CRU Multi-Commodity Analyst Zanna Aleksahhina As of Feb. 19, the outbreak of coronavirus Covid-19 has killed more than 2,000 people, infected over 75,000 others, and put millions in self-isolation. Aside from the human tragedy, the virus poses a real threat to the Chinese economy. The automotive industry will be hit hard, and we expect […]
Steel prices continue to lack a clear direction, as Steel Market Update keeps its price momentum at Neutral. SMU’s canvass of the market over the past two days shows hot rolled prices unchanged, cold rolled up and coated steels down. Plate prices also saw a small decrease. Here is how we see prices this week: […]
While business activity remains fairly strong in February, distributors of galvanized products to the HVAC industry are waiting and watching for some indication of which way steel prices will move. Steel Market Update is, too. SMU has moved its Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral until the market establishes a clear direction. Steel prices have softened […]