SMU contributor Bryan Tice is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. He and the firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients. They also provide process and analytical support. Before joining Metal Edge Partners, Bryan held commercial leadership roles involving purchasing, sales, and risk management […]
US plate prices edged down again this week after seeing their largest decline in nearly five years the week prior. The latest declines are not exactly a surprise given plate prices had been holding an unsustainable premium over coil and buying has been largely hand-to-mouth. But the straw that broke the camel’s back might just […]
The temptation to purchase foreign hot-rolled coil (HRC) at a bargain remains low, with adjusted foreign prices now within $40 per ton of domestic steel, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis. For the past three months, the potential discount on imported products has been shrinking. After taking freight costs, trader margins and tariffs into […]
Nucor announced a price hike on Monday, and our HRC price is up modestly for the first time since mid-April. It’s too early to say whether those two trends are related. Our HRC price went up $15 per ton. Nucor’s price increase was $50 per ton, and the jury is still out on whether it […]
SMU’s benchmark hot-rolled coil price inched upward for the first time since mid-April, nearly four months ago. The modest gain came even as cold-rolled and coated prices continued to see significant declines. Plate prices were roughly flat. By the numbers: Our average hot-rolled coil price now stands at $820 per ton ($41 per cwt), up […]
I mentioned in my last Final Thoughts that I’d been surprised to see hot-rolled coil lead times inch up, even if only modestly so. I cautioned at the time not to make too much of just one data point or to call a trend based on just one survey. That big caveat aside, as we […]
We’ve got a full issue tonight, so I’ll keep my final thoughts brief. If you’re looking for reasons to be bearish, there are still plenty out there. When it comes to sheet prices, nearly all respondents to our survey report that mills are willing to negotiate lower. When it comes to geopolitics, the war in […]
The appeal to purchase foreign hot-rolled coil (HRC) further faded this week, with foreign prices now in close quarters to domestic steel, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis. Since mid-May, US steel prices have generally declined at a faster rate than foreign prices, meaning the potential discount on imported products has been shrinking for […]
Steel mill lead times were mixed this week, with some products slightly up and others down, according to SMU’s latest market check. Hot rolled and plate lead times rose compared to what we saw two weeks ago, while cold rolled and coated lead times inched further downward. Is this just a blip or the start […]
Sheet prices continued to move lower this week, and plate joined the downward trend following a price decrease announced last week by Nucor Corp. Hot-rolled coil prices now have a tenuous grasp on $800 per ton ($40 per cwt). SMU’s average HRC price stands at $805 per ton, down $35 per ton from last week […]
Steel prices continued to fall in each week of July, following declines in May and June. Hot rolled prices were $955 per ton ($49.75 per cwt) the first week of July, slipping between $35 and $45 per ton each week to reach $840 per ton as of last Tuesday. The SMU Price Momentum Indicator for […]
US plate prices were largely unchanged this week, but probably not for long now that Nucor has significantly lowered plate prices with the opening of its September plate order book. The move came after Nucor in early July kept prices flat with the opening of its August order book. Discrete plate prices, as well as prices […]
Foreign hot-rolled steel imports have all but lost their appeal this week and are now at levels comparable to domestic steel prices, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis. Since mid May, US steel prices have generally declined at a faster rate than foreign prices, meaning the potential discount on imported products has been shrinking […]
Prices for hot-rolled, cold-rolled and galvanized flat-rolled steel fell again this week with little signs of a near-term bottom. Hot-rolled prices fells into the low $800s per ton ($40s per cwt). Cold-rolled and galvanized base prices, meanwhile, fell into the $1,200s per ton ($60s per cwt) for the first time since mid-March. Spreads between highs […]
On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on a variety of subjects including steel prices, supply and demand, and new mill capacity. We are sharing some of the comments we received in each buyer’s own words rather than summarizing them in ours. Want to have your voice heard? Contact Brett@SteelMarketUpdate.com to […]
Stelco Holdings Inc. expects its second quarter earnings results to be notably higher sequentially and year-on-year but is warning that a weakening steel market will mean lower results for the second half of the year. In a preliminary earnings report, the Canadian flatrolled steelmaker said it expects its Q2 adjusted EBITDA to be Candian $460-470 […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this new Premium content – an index comparing lead time and demand data – with Executive members. For information on upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Apparent demand for flat-rolled steel in the US remains on a downward trend – as it has been since late April, […]
We were close to peak steel prices this time a year ago. Are we now close to peak pessimism? Your answer to that question might depend on whether you’re working at a steel mill or at a service center. We’ve noticed a big split in sentiment lately. Roughly 40% of respondents to our surveys – […]
Steel mill lead times through this week were relatively flat for sheet products and down slightly for plate, according to SMU’s latest market check. On average this week, lead times declined by 0.1 weeks across the board compared to early July and are down an average of 0.4 weeks compared to one month ago. Having […]
The appeal to import cheaper foreign hot-rolled coil (HRC) instead of domestic steel continues to lessen, according to Steel Market Update’s latest foreign versus domestic price comparison. For the past two months, domestic steel prices have generally declined at a faster rate than foreign prices, meaning the potential discount on imported products has been shrinking. After […]
US plate prices have been holding steady and bucking the downtrend presently seen across sheet and coated products. Plate demand has remained largely steady, while buyers have maintained lean inventories, only taking volumes to fill gaps. The price dynamic has led to historically high premiums over hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices. Presently, plate prices are more […]
SMU’s average hot-rolled coil prices dropped below $900 per ton ($45 per cwt) for the first time since December 2020. And some sources, citing short lead times and spotty demand, said they see little reason for the trend to reverse in the short term. SMU’s hot-rolled coil prices now stand at $875 per ton ($43.75 […]
Flat Rolled = 55 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 54.7 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled US service center flat rolled inventories edged up in June. At the end of June, service centers carried 55 shipping days of supply on an adjusted basis, according to SMU data. This was up from 54.7 shipping days […]
SMU canvassed steel buyers on a variety of subjects including steel prices, supply and demand, and new mill capacity on Monday and Tuesday of this week. Rather than summarizing the comments received, we are sharing them in each buyer’s own words. Want to have your voice heard and share your comments with SMU? Contact Brett@SteelMarketUpdate.com […]
Hot-rolled coil prices fell again this week and now have a tenuous grip on $900 per ton ($45 per cwt). We remain at the lowest price levels since mid-December 2020 – more than 18 months ago. What’s going on? For starters, we know that the low end of our range might come as surprise to some […]
Sheet prices continued to slide this week and plate prices to defy gravity. If there is an upside, it’s that the pace of sheet declines has moderated slightly. SMU’s hot-rolled coil price now stands at $910 per ton ($45.50 per cwt), down $45 per ton from $955 per ton a week ago and down $190 […]
The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled After a brisk bout of futures activity in HR to close out the first half of 2022, we are experiencing much […]
There has been a broad consensus that wherever the current market bottoms will be higher than pre-pandemic norms. But as our latest survey results indicate, estimates of where that bottom is keep moving lower. About half of respondents to our latest survey think prices will be $800-899 per ton two months from now. In late […]
Steel mill lead times continued to shorten into July for both sheet and plate products, according to our latest market check this week. On average this week, lead times declined by 0.3 weeks compared to late June and are down an average of half a week compared to one month prior. Having gradually declined from […]
Nucor is keeping plate prices flat with the opening of its August 2022 order book. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker said it would maintain plate prices, effective with new orders. All published adders and extras will be applied, the company said in a letter to customers dated June 30. In its previous letter to customers dated June 13, Nucor […]