Canadian steelmaker Stelco posted sharply lower earnings in the third quarter on falling steel prices and higher raw material tags. The Hamilton, Ontario-based integrated sheet producer expects lower prices and short lead times to characterize the market through the end of 2022. “Despite market headwinds driven by cost inflation and a further deterioration in steel […]
Is this the week that prices bottomed, or do we still have room to fall? If you think ~$600 per ton ($30 cwt) is the bottom, you might point to some positive big-picture developments: strong energy prices, moves by China to prop up its property sector, or the weakening of the US dollar. You might […]
Steel sheet prices fell across the board again this week, with hot-rolled coil prices dropping to their lowest point since late September 2020 – more than two years ago. But industry opinion about the direction of prices has diverged. That’s a significant shift from prior weeks, when sentiment was almost uniformly bearish. Some market participants […]
On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on a variety of subjects including current and future steel prices, inventory strategies, supply, demand, and new mill capacity. We are sharing the comments we received in each buyer’s own words rather than summarizing them in ours. We want to hear your thoughts, too! […]
Flat Rolled = 52.5 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 47.3 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled US service center flat rolled supply in October was steady month on month, according to Steel Market Update data. At the end of October, service centers had 52.5 shipping days of flat-rolled steel on hand on an adjusted […]
I wish I could offer you some hope about steel prices getting better. But at the moment, the thing that strikes me most is that $600 per ton ($30 per cwt) for hot-rolled coil (HRC) sure looks like the “new” $600 per ton. That’s a joke of course. I make it in remembrance of all that […]
By CRU Senior Analyst, Puneet Paliwal, from CRU’s Scrap, DRI/HBI & Pig Iron Monitor The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) for November fell by 3.5% month-on-month (MoM), to 298.3, which is the lowest level since December 2020. Global scrap demand continues to be undermined by weak steel market fundamentals in key markets, causing prices to stay […]
Steel mill lead times were steady to down this week compared to our previous market check. Production times shrunk for four products tracked by SMU and slightly extended for one. Lead times retracted by an average of 0.2 weeks compared to two weeks ago and are half a week shorter than levels one month ago. […]
Domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) continues to hold the upper hand over imported steel when it comes to price, according to Steel Market Update’s latest foreign versus domestic price analysis. US HRC is approximately 4–7% cheaper than foreign prices this week, after consideration of freight costs, trader margins and any applicable tariffs. Prior to this week, […]
The news of the day, outside of politics (I hear we have an election), is that US Steel and the United Steelworkers (USW) finally struck a deal. That’s good news if you were hoping to take an unknown factor out of the market. It’s bad news if you were hoping for higher prices on a […]
Sheet prices fell across the board again this week as the slow grind lower that we’ve seen since last spring continued to gain speed. Hot-rolled coil prices fell $30 per ton ($1.50 per cwt) week-over-week. Declines in coated products were more pronounced, with cold rolled down $55 per ton, galvanized down $35 per ton, and […]
Wolfe Research managing director Timna Tanners will be the featured speaker on our SMU Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Nov. 30, at 11 a.m. ET. The live webinar is free. A recording will be available free to SMU members. You can register here. We’ll talk about Tanners’ outlook for steel prices, raw materials costs, as well […]
Wolfe Research managing director Timna Tanners will be the featured speaker on our SMU Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Nov. 30, at 11 a.m. ET. The live webinar is free. A recording will be available free to SMU members. You can register here. We’ll talk about Tanners’ outlook for steel prices, raw materials costs, as well […]
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports offer no cost advantage over domestic steel this week, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis. Domestic HRC prices are now approximately 1-3% cheaper than foreign steel, after consideration of freight costs, trader margins and any applicable tariffs. Although down, the relationship between foreign and domestic prices has remained within $18 […]
Apparent demand for flat-rolled steel in the US edged down slightly in SMU’s latest analysis of demand and lead time dynamics. Despite the slight decline in the latter half of October, the month’s SMU Steel Demand Index closed out roughly 2.5 points above September’s reading but remained in contracting territory for the sixth straight month […]
SMU polled steel buyers on a variety of subjects on Monday and Tuesday of this week, including current and future steel prices, inventory strategies, supply, demand, and new mill capacity. Rather than summarizing the comments we received, we are sharing them in each buyer’s own words. We want to hear your thoughts, too! Contact Brett@SteelMarketUpdate.com […]
Sheet prices are down yet again, with our hot-rolled coil price now at its lowest point since late October 2020. The question two years ago was how far prices might rise as demand snapped back from the pandemic faster than supply could be brought online to meet it. The question now is when and where […]
Sheet and plate prices fell across the board once again this week as market participants continue to question when and where the market might bottom. Some not long ago predicted that hot-rolled coil prices wouldn’t fall below $800 per ton ($40 per cwt). Our average price is now well below $700 per ton, with some […]
US plate prices were unchanged this week — the first sideways move in nearly a month. Tags had been eroding slowly of late though buyers have remained largely on the sidelines of the spot market, focused on managing inventories. Nucor’s $120-per-ton ($6-per-cwt) price cut on plate back in mid-September now serves as the top end […]
SMU polled steel buyers on a variety of subjects on Monday and Tuesday of this week, including current and future steel prices, inventory strategies, supply, demand, and new mill capacity. Rather than summarizing the comments we received, we are sharing them in each buyer’s own words. We want to hear your thoughts, too! Contact Brett@SteelMarketUpdate.com […]
Steel prices declined each week in October, with all sheet products now back in line with late-2020 levels. Hot rolled prices averaged $736 per net ton ($36.80 per cwt) in October, falling from $765 in the beginning of the month to $710 as of last Tuesday. The SMU Price Momentum Indicator for sheet products was […]
SMU has released its latest full survey results, and I want to highlight some big changes that we’ve seen in the data compared to just two weeks ago. Chief among them is what appears to be a big shift in service center pricing and buying patterns. We had seen most service centers trying to hold […]
I want to give a shoutout to the North American Steel Alliance (NASA) for giving me the opportunity to provide a keynote address at their Forecast Conference in Chicago earlier this week. And I want to take a minute to dive deeper into SMU’s lead time figures, one of the indicators I highlighted at the event as […]
Foreign hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports offer little to no cost advantage over domestic steel at this time, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis. After taking freight costs, trader margins and tariffs into consideration, HRC imported from Germany and Italy are theoretically more expensive than domestic steel, and Far East Asian HRC offers just a […]
Steel mill lead times declined across the board this week for all products tracked by SMU. Our latest lead times analysis shows that production times on sheet products decreased by 0.2–0.5 weeks compared to our previous market check two weeks ago, while plate lead times dipped 0.1 weeks. On average, lead times retracted by 0.3 weeks compared to […]
Don’t look now but sheet price erosion continues, with tags across all flat-rolled products inching lower this week, according to SMU’s latest check of the market. For some time now we’ve been trying to gauge SMU survey respondents’ sentiment and their sense of market direction by asking when they think HRC prices will bottom out […]
Galvanized prices continue to drop, as discussed during this month’s call of the Sheet Metal/Air Handling Council of the Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI). Prices have been steadily dropping for the past six months despite stable demand. A few highlights from the call include the differential between hot-rollled and cold-rolled coil being in […]
Domestic sheet prices slipped again this week across all sheet and plate products. It’s the continuation of a mostly downward trend on the sheet side that we’ve seen since mid/late April. Hot-rolled, cold-rolled and coated products were all down $20–25 per ton ($1–1.25 per cwt). Plate prices slipped a more modest $10 per ton. SMU’s […]
This week, foreign hot-rolled coil (HRC) offers little to no cost advantage over domestic steel, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis. Foreign prices now hold a theoretical discount of 0–1% over domestic steel, after adjusting foreign prices for estimated freight costs, trader margins, and tariffs. This relationship has teetered back and forth lately, with […]
What a difference a week can make. The lack of clarity in the short-to-medium-term direction presently in steel seems to be stumping maybe even the best and the brightest of flat-rolled buyers. And perhaps as Michael Cowden indicated in SMU’s prior Final Thoughts, the steel market might be somewhere in the middle — in-between bearish […]