Feelings are running high with prices inflecting downward from historically high levels. I’ve had producers say that we’ve written too negatively about higher prices. I’ve also had consumers say that we’ve written too positively about higher prices. For the record: SMU doesn’t have a position on prices. We aim to report what’s happening in the market […]
A year ago, the LME was $3,100 per metric ton (mt) and the Midwest Premium (MWP) was pressuring $0.39/lb. In early May 2023, the LME is resting near $2,300/mt and the MWP is settled at $0.25/lb. That marks a $0.50 /lb. reversal in underlying metal value year over year (y/y). The US Midwest premium continues […]
Mexico is benefiting from the trend of the reshoring of manufacturing as companies work to secure reliable supply chains and be closer to their end markets. As a result, Ternium’s Mexican operations are seeing increasing shipments and market share. Company executives discussed this and other topics on the company’s first-quarter earnings conference call on Wednesday, […]
Sheet prices fell across the board this week on the heels of shorter lead times, higher-than-anticipated inventory levels, and potential import competition. Some market participants predicted that further declines would be “managed” by a more consolidated flat-rolled steel industry. Others said they feared that prices could come down quickly given how sharply they rose in […]
SMU polled steel buyers on a variety of subjects on Monday and Tuesday of this week, including current and future steel prices, inventory strategies, supply, demand, and new mill capacity. Rather than summarizing the comments we received, we are sharing some of them in each buyer’s own words. We want to hear your thoughts, too! […]
Has the domestic hot band pricing rally run its course? Data and market sentiment seem to suggest as much, and prices could indeed be heading down. Hot-rolled coil just slipped for the first time since late November, according to SMU’s latest check of the market. I’m certainly not willing to speculate what will happen next, […]
Hot-rolled coil prices edged downward for the first time since late November, according to SMU’s latest check of the market. The dip in HRC prices comes after we saw lead times contract slightly, an uptick in the number of mills willing to negotiate lower prices, and a modest increase in sheet inventories. SMU’s hot-rolled coil price […]
Flat Rolled = 52.7 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 41.0 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled US service center flat-rolled steel inventories rose in March with a slowing daily shipping rate. At the end of March, service centers carried 52.7 shipping days of flat-rolled steel supply, according to SMU data, compared to 52.2 shipping […]
I sometimes think of Steel Market Update as an early-warning system for big market moves, and our most recent survey data clearly points to a market inflection. Take these three slides from our latest steel market survey. SMU Steel Market Survey Highlights For starters, nearly half of respondents to our latest survey think lead times […]
Remember the forecasts about 2023 being a normal year for steel? Instead, we find ourselves in a third consecutive year of “unprecedented” volatility. But I wonder whether we’re seeing a rough redux of 2022 when it comes to sheet products. Namely, sheet prices shooting sharply higher in Q1 only to correct lower in early Q2. […]
Steel mill lead times are down for the first time since January, according to SMU’s latest steel market survey data. Lead times seem to be tapering off after climbing week over week for the past few months. SMU’s hot-rolled lead time is approximately 6.1 weeks, a 0.6-week drop from two weeks ago. While numbers are currently […]
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports remain attractive, even as US price gains have slowed, according to SMU’s latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis. And while domestic tags continue to inch higher, they remain well behind the targeted base price of $1,300 per ton ($65 per cwt) for HRC issued by Cleveland-Cliffs back on April 3. The price […]
Hot-rolled coil prices marked a third consecutive week of very modest gains amid questions about whether the market was at or near a peak. Steel Market Update’s hot-rolled coil prices stands at $1,160 per ton ($58 per cwt), up $5 per ton from last week. HRC prices have risen only $20 per ton since March […]
SMU polled steel buyers on a variety of subjects on Monday and Tuesday of this week, including current and future steel prices, inventory strategies, supply, demand, and new mill capacity. Rather than summarizing the comments we received, we are sharing some of them in each buyer’s own words. We want to hear your thoughts, too! Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to […]
Looks like the Easter Bunny left a price increase in our baskets this week. After a price increase comes through, the question is always, “But will it stick?” This week’s market chatter contributors don’t seem to think it will. Many comments over the past few weeks refer back to long-term sustainability. Eventually, foreign prices will […]
What should we make of Cleveland-Cliffs’ price increase, and will it stick? We’ve asked some of you to weigh in on that, and we’ll publish your feedback on Thursday. Here is some initial reaction I’ve received in the meantime. Some market contacts stress that a spot price increase from a company not heavily involved in the […]
Sheet prices moved slightly higher as domestic steelmakers held to previously announced price increases and as Cleveland-Cliffs rolled out another round of price hikes. Cliffs had been inching prices above $1,200 per ton ($60 per cwt) before the price hike was announced, some sources noted. It’s not clear whether other producers will follow Cliffs’ move. […]
Manufacturing activity in the US continued to slow during the month of March, as did general economic activity, according to the latest Manufacturing Report on Business from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The ISM’s monthly PMI index declined for a fifth consecutive month, registering 46.3% in March. This was 1.4 points lower than the […]
This pre-holiday steel market feels a little like the one before Thanksgiving – albeit at approximately double the price. Back in November, hot-rolled coil prices had crashed to around $600 per ton ($30 per cwt), and there were questions about whether and when mills might push to increase prices to more sustainable levels. Now, HR […]
You may have wondered what goes on behind the scenes over here at CRU and Steel Market Update. CRU principal analyst Josh Spoores will talk about what goes into forecasts as well as his take on the latest market trends at the next SMU Community Chat on Wednesday, April 5, at 11 am ET. (You can register […]
The wide spread between foreign and domestic cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices remains in place despite recent price increases in Europe, according to SMU’s latest check of the market. Domestic CRC was, on average, $77 per ton more expensive than imported steel in the four regions we track as recently as early February. That premium has […]
Steel mill leads time were largely flat this week, a trend change in a year that has seen them mostly rising, according to SMU’s latest steel market survey data. Case in point: hot-rolled coil lead times were flat for the first time since early January. We’ve noted a similar trend in prices, which tend to trend […]
The appeal for imports of hot-rolled coil (HRC) remains strong even as US price gains have slowed, according to SMU’s latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis. And while we haven’t seen an official mill pricing notice in nearly three weeks, domestic tags continue to inch higher towards the targeted base price of $1,200 per ton […]
SMU’s hot-rolled coil price posted its smallest week-over-week (WoW) price gain since mid-January. Some sources said the market might be at or near a peak. But others said it might be taking a break ahead of domestic mills rolling out another round of price hikes. Our average hot-rolled coil price stands at $1,145 per ton ($57.25 […]
Josh Spoores, principal analyst at CRU, will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, April 5, at 11 a.m. ET. The live webinar is free. A recording will be available for free to SMU members. You can register here. We’ll talk about CRU’s forecast for fourth quarter HRC prices and […]
The outlook for the construction industry is relatively optimistic, despite the uncertain state of the overall economy, according to Ken Simonson, chief economist of the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC). Simonson, who chatted with SMU chief editor Michael Cowden on the March 22 SMU Community Chat, provided the most recent data covering many aspects […]
Foreign cold-rolled coil’s (CRC) pricing advantage over domestic product widened this past week as US prices rose further in response to continued mill tag hikes, according to Steel Market Update’s latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis of the CRC market. The move continues to widen the gap between US and offshore cold-rolled. Longer lead times […]
The LME aluminum three-month price steadied this week despite a whirlwind of upsetting news, finding its footing near $2,300 per metric ton. That’s below the $2,500-per-ton mark we saw as 2023 opened on a more optimistic tone. The recent news from across the geopolitical and macroeconomic scene has dampened demand sentiment in the near term. […]
SMU polled steel buyers on a variety of subjects on Monday and Tuesday of this week, including current and future steel prices, inventory strategies, supply, demand, and new mill capacity. Rather than summarizing the comments we received, we are sharing some of them in each buyer’s own words. We want to hear your thoughts, too! […]
The appeal for imports of hot-rolled coil (HRC) continues to grow as US prices move higher in response to repeated mill tag hikes. The price advantage domestic HRC had enjoyed over offshore just last month has swung negative at an accelerated rate, according to SMU’s latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis. The most recent pricing […]