Sheet prices came down harder than I expected this week. I probably shouldn’t have been surprised. For starters, mills are still making money at these levels, so there is not a lot of friction to lowering prices to get an order. Also, lead times are or will soon be overlapping with a period when we’re […]
SMU’s domestic hot-rolled coil price has fallen below $1,000 per ton ($50 per cwt) for the first time since early March as a broad-based sheet price decline picks up speed. Our HRC price now stands at $990 per ton on average, down $50 per ton from $1,040 per ton last week and off $170 per […]
As pricing and lead times continue to drop, buyers are keeping a close eye on the market, according to members of the Heating, Air-Conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) speaking on the Tuesday, May 23, meeting of its Sheet Metal/Air Handling Council. Cautious optimism carried over from April’s meeting. Currently, 90% of galvanized buyers say […]
Foreign cold-rolled coil remains much less expensive than domestic CRC even as prices in the US fall roughly in tandem with those abroad, according to SMU’s latest check of the market. Domestic CRC was, on average, $77 per ton ($3.85 per cwt) more expensive than imported steel in the four regions we track as recently as early February. […]
A weary market worn down by the absence of any positive demand reports ran below the critical $2,300-per-tonne trading line. Falling all the way to $2,200 before settling in the $2,270 – 2,290 range, the LME is in a new lower range as of the week ending May 19 as bearish sentiment pervades the market. […]
On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on a variety of subjects, including current and future steel prices, inventory strategies, supply, demand, and new mill capacity. Rather than summarizing the comments we received, we are sharing some of them in each buyer’s own words. We want to hear your thoughts, too! […]
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports are lingering at a notable price discount to domestic hot band tags despite repeated price decreases in the US market, according to SMU’s latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis. Domestic tags are still markedly more expensive than imported product, as both offshore and US steel prices continue to ease. The price advantage domestic […]
Prices for steel sheet continue to move lower as market participants debate how far and how fast prices might fall before they reach bottom. Some are also questioning when and how quickly prices might rebound. But most don’t see that happening until the back half of the year. SMU’s hot-rolled coil price has in the […]
Flat Rolled = 51.1 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 46.1 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled US service center flat-rolled steel inventories in April increased in terms of months of supply, according to SMU data. At the end of April, service centers had 2.69 months of flat-rolled steel on hand on an adjusted basis, […]
The drop in sheet prices we’ve seen at the mill level is now spreading downstream – an abrupt shift from just a few weeks ago, according to our latest survey data. More and more service centers are cutting prices. I had expected to see an increase in the number of service centers reporting that they […]
Steel mill lead times continue to decline for hot rolled, galvanized, and Galvalume products, while cold rolled and plate ticked up slightly, according to SMU’s latest steel market survey data. Lead times took a downard turn in mid-April after climbing for nearly five months. SMU’s hot-rolled lead time is 4 to 8 weeks with an average of […]
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports remain a feasible alternative despite repeated price decreases in the US market, according to SMU’s latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis. Domestic tags are still notably more expensive than imported product, as offshore steel prices and US prices decline in tandem. The price advantage domestic HRC had enjoyed over imported material as recently […]
Steel prices peaked at the start of the month, with hot-rolled coil reaching $1,160 per ton ($58 pet cwt) on average on April 10. Tags began to decline near the month’s halfway mark and closed out the month $40 per ton lower at $1,120 per ton. The SMU Price Momentum Indicator for sheet products was […]
Sheet price continued to decline this week on increased supply, shorter lead times, and aggressive pricing from some domestic mills. Also pressuring steel prices were expectations of lower scrap prices and import competition. SMU’s hot-rolled coil price now stands at $1,070 per ton ($53.50 per cwt), down $35 per ton from $1,105 per ton last […]
Premiums for aluminum in the US took fell again last week following a period of stability after the Federal Reserve stepped in the wake of the closure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Economic struggles have continued to depress shipment volumes into Q2, and many major macro data points are still muddied. Last week another bank […]
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports remain attractive to US buyers despite the current price correction in the domestic market, according to SMU’s latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis. Domestic tags are still significantly more expensive than imported product, namely because offshore steel prices are declining concurrently with US tags. The price advantage domestic HRC had enjoyed over imported […]
SMU polled steel buyers on a variety of subjects on Monday and Tuesday of this week, including current and future steel prices, inventory strategies, supply, demand, and new mill capacity. Rather than summarizing the comments we received, we are sharing some of them in each buyer’s own words. We want to hear your thoughts, too! […]
Our hot-rolled coil price slipped modestly again this week. That wasn’t a surprise given the trends we’ve outlined in our newsletters over the last few weeks – shorter lead times, increased domestic output, and mills more willing to negotiate lower prices. Declines often aren’t modest for long. Could we see bigger drops in two weeks […]
US hot-rolled coil prices slipped for a third consecutive week as market participants debated whether and when the declines might accelerate. Another big question: where the new floor for HRC might be? SMU’s hot-rolled coil price dipped to $1,105 per ton ($55.25 per cwt), down $15 per ton from last week and down $55 per […]
Feelings are running high with prices inflecting downward from historically high levels. I’ve had producers say that we’ve written too negatively about higher prices. I’ve also had consumers say that we’ve written too positively about higher prices. For the record: SMU doesn’t have a position on prices. We aim to report what’s happening in the market […]
A year ago, the LME was $3,100 per metric ton (mt) and the Midwest Premium (MWP) was pressuring $0.39/lb. In early May 2023, the LME is resting near $2,300/mt and the MWP is settled at $0.25/lb. That marks a $0.50 /lb. reversal in underlying metal value year over year (y/y). The US Midwest premium continues […]
Mexico is benefiting from the trend of the reshoring of manufacturing as companies work to secure reliable supply chains and be closer to their end markets. As a result, Ternium’s Mexican operations are seeing increasing shipments and market share. Company executives discussed this and other topics on the company’s first-quarter earnings conference call on Wednesday, […]
Sheet prices fell across the board this week on the heels of shorter lead times, higher-than-anticipated inventory levels, and potential import competition. Some market participants predicted that further declines would be “managed” by a more consolidated flat-rolled steel industry. Others said they feared that prices could come down quickly given how sharply they rose in […]
SMU polled steel buyers on a variety of subjects on Monday and Tuesday of this week, including current and future steel prices, inventory strategies, supply, demand, and new mill capacity. Rather than summarizing the comments we received, we are sharing some of them in each buyer’s own words. We want to hear your thoughts, too! […]
Has the domestic hot band pricing rally run its course? Data and market sentiment seem to suggest as much, and prices could indeed be heading down. Hot-rolled coil just slipped for the first time since late November, according to SMU’s latest check of the market. I’m certainly not willing to speculate what will happen next, […]
Hot-rolled coil prices edged downward for the first time since late November, according to SMU’s latest check of the market. The dip in HRC prices comes after we saw lead times contract slightly, an uptick in the number of mills willing to negotiate lower prices, and a modest increase in sheet inventories. SMU’s hot-rolled coil price […]
Flat Rolled = 52.7 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 41.0 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled US service center flat-rolled steel inventories rose in March with a slowing daily shipping rate. At the end of March, service centers carried 52.7 shipping days of flat-rolled steel supply, according to SMU data, compared to 52.2 shipping […]
I sometimes think of Steel Market Update as an early-warning system for big market moves, and our most recent survey data clearly points to a market inflection. Take these three slides from our latest steel market survey. SMU Steel Market Survey Highlights For starters, nearly half of respondents to our latest survey think lead times […]
Remember the forecasts about 2023 being a normal year for steel? Instead, we find ourselves in a third consecutive year of “unprecedented” volatility. But I wonder whether we’re seeing a rough redux of 2022 when it comes to sheet products. Namely, sheet prices shooting sharply higher in Q1 only to correct lower in early Q2. […]
Steel mill lead times are down for the first time since January, according to SMU’s latest steel market survey data. Lead times seem to be tapering off after climbing week over week for the past few months. SMU’s hot-rolled lead time is approximately 6.1 weeks, a 0.6-week drop from two weeks ago. While numbers are currently […]