Mill lead times, as reported through our proprietary steel market survey, are shrinking on three of the four flat rolled product categories followed by Steel Market Update. Hot rolled lead times which were referenced on a weighted average basis at 4.5 weeks at the beginning of August are now at 4.0 weeks. However, the 4.0 […]
As we entered the month of August we found flat rolled steel prices trending higher. Prices began rising 10 weeks earlier (late May) after U.S. Steel announced the first of three rounds of price increases. On May 21st the Steel Market Update (SMU) hot rolled coil average price was $565 per ton ($28.25/cwt) and by […]
SMU was speaking with one of the steel mills this morning who was lamenting about the drop in spot galvanized base prices from the $37.50/cwt level to down around $36.00/cwt base prices. Two conversion mills were mentioned as being the culprits leading the charge. Not everyone (yet) is participating but this mill executive thought it […]
The Chicago Business Barometer edged up 0.7 points in August, registering 53 from a reading of 52.3 in July, according to MNI Indicators. A gain in New Orders and Backlogs helped push the indicator upwards. The slight increase, however, indicates stabilization after an erratic second quarter. MNI reports the Barometer is still too close to […]
When is Sunday really Monday and Tuesday suppose to be Wednesday…? One of the changes SMU is making is to date our newsletters on the day they are actually produced and sent. So, you will note that tonight’s newsletter is dated, Tuesday, September 3rd as opposed to Wednesday, September 4th. SMU will produce three Executive […]
We are picking up a very mixed bag over the past two days regarding spot flat rolled pricing. As we go through the process we ask ourselves is the spot pricing market glass half full (meaning prices will go higher from here) or half empty (meaning prices will move lower). We don’t have a clear […]
On Friday, August 23rd, Steel Market Update adjusted our SMU Price Momentum Indicator from “Higher” to “Neutral.” This change is meant to be an indicator of the direction we expect flat rolled steel prices to move over the next 30 days. Prior to Friday our Indicator was set at Higher for 10.5 weeks going back […]
Financial Markets: When I last wrote, I mentioned that the SP 500 was likely headed to 1720 before a retracement and then an eventual rally up the 1775 zone. Well the SP 500 reached 1709 on August 2nd from which we have since retraced to 1640 yesterday. We settled today at 1657. In this retracement […]
Lead times slipped slightly across the board compared to where we saw them at the beginning of August. The lead times reported by those responding to our Steel Market Update (SMU) steel survey dropped from 4.5 weeks on hot rolled (weighted average) to 4.11 weeks. This is still well above where we were reporting lead […]
You will hear the term “spread” quite often when discussing the differences between flat rolled steel prices from one source to another. The term can be used when discussing domestic steel mills and their differences in pricing on the same product. It can also be used when discussing the differences between foreign steel imports and […]
From time to time SMU gets emails from our readers that we think others might find interesting. Here are a couple examples: In an email with the title “Bingo” we received the following comments from a large galvanized service center: “The bet is the first sign of weakness will come out of the conversion mills […]
Written by: John Packard With other periodicals calling a top or “peak” to the market the pressure has been put on Steel Market Update to clear up the muddied waters. From our perspective, the peak is usually identified when one of the domestic mills breaks ranks and starts cutting deals at numbers less than what […]
Written by: John Packard Essentially our review of the market has found little measurable movement in spot flat rolled prices this week. The opinion of many buyers is the market is closer to the top and any purchases need to be carefully considered prior to making any commitments. Buyers continue to express confidence in their […]
With other periodicals calling a top or “peak” to flat rolled prices, the pressure has been put on Steel Market Update to clear up the muddied waters. From our perspective, the peak is usually identified when one of the domestic steel mills breaks ranks and starts cutting deals at numbers less than what they were […]
The main issue driving steel prices during the month of July was supply and the constraints in supply related to production issues at the North American steel producers. U.S. Steel Lake Erie Works continued to be on lockout throughout July. The 2.5 million ton a year slab and hot rolled mill was first locked out […]
From Steel Market Update perspective there are a number of keys to watch during the month of August: • Scrap prices: Shredded scrap prices are forecast to be down $10-$20 per gross ton due to oversupply. Other scrap grades such as cut grades and prime are forecast to be sideways to down $5 per […]
By Sandy Williams Russel Metals reported second quarter earnings of $20 million on sales of $758 million, as compared to $23 million on sales of $719 millions in 2012. Revenues dropped 13 percent in the metals service center segment and 29 percent in the steel distributors segment due to lower demand levels and pricing. Energy […]
SMU doesn’t normally publish obituaries. I found the one about Berthod Beitz former Chairman of Krupp Steel especially touching and important to acknowledge. For the younger generation the idea of death camps and the world at war must be quite foreign. Even those of us born after World War II have only faded memories of […]
Written by: John Packard SMU thought our readers might be interested in what the domestic mills are “publishing” as lead times as of Monday of this week for new orders placed at that time. We have a number of mill lead times for you to review. AK Steel has informed their customers that their Middletown […]
Written by: John Packard Are we seeing early signs of prices weakening? The combination of our survey, which began on Thursday of last week and concluded earlier today, and our channel checks with both manufacturing and distributors produced a wider range in pricing than we had been seeing in recent weeks. Is this the beginning […]
Written by: John Packard Steel Market Update has been conducting our twice monthly steel surveys for approximately five years now. When we started, we chose people and companies with whom we trusted and had worked with knowing we could depend on the quality of the information gathered. Having worked within the industry for over 30 […]
Lead times continue to be quite short on all but Galvalume. Hot rolled lead times retreated to —- weeks based on the results from our ongoing SMU steel survey. Cold rolled and galvanized lead times remained relatively stable compared to the beginning of the month. According to our survey responders, mills are more willing to […]
The domestic steel mills continue to struggle to keep the flat rolled steel averages (indices) above benchmark levels. Hot rolled coil, which according to our index rose during the previous two weeks to $615 per ton (average), is now struggling to hold its gains. Other flat rolled items are having their issues and this was […]
Written by: Sandy Williams Metalforming companies are expecting business to be steady for the next three months according to the March 2013 Precision Metalforming Association Business Conditions Report. Optimism has been rising since November and has flattened out in February and March. Incoming orders are not expected to change much in the next three […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) has been speaking to a number of service centers regarding their spot sales and especially those sales which are made between service centers or brokers. A number of service centers have been commenting about their spot warehouse business being off over the past three months. Lisa Goldenberg of Delaware Steel told […]
Our SMU Price Momentum Indicator continues to be at Neutral and has been for 14 weeks. We do not yet see enough momentum to cause prices to rise or fall quickly. The market appears to be in a slightly over-supplied basis and demand – at the moment – is flat. Not dead by any means, […]
The domestic mills are trying to collect increases – some are a little more adamant than others – but there does appear to be an effort. Lead times continue to be relatively short for this time of year. Demand levels are inconsistent with a number of service centers reporting slower shipments than anticipated for the […]
Batting average is around .500 – Half Stick, Half Don’t Remember the good old days when the domestic steel industry would announce price increases based on the flow of business – when order flows increased to a point where mill books were strained and lead times became extended and industry prices moved higher? The “new […]
SMU asked those taking this week’s steel survey if the latest price announcement stood a better chance of having at least some of the increase being collected than the one announced six weeks prior. We presented the percentages in our last issue of Steel Market Update (SMU 3/6) and now we would like to provide […]
Written by: Sandy Williams Day one of the SMU Steel 101: Introduction to Steelmaking & Market Fundamentals workshop ended by rubbing shoulders with our mill hosts at a cocktail party at our hotel. This was my first opportunity to speak to the General Manager of the Severstal Columbus plant as well as a number of […]