A note from one of my long-time readers, “You need to get more controversial in your final thoughts. Tell us what you think.” I have taken a relatively low profile (although some might disagree) regarding my opinions on mill price negotiations – both contract and spot. So the way I will respond to my long-time […]
There is a lot going on regarding contracts, contract negotiations and the timing of when orders/commitments need to be placed with the domestic steel mills. SMU has had direct conversations and seen email correspondence which suggests at least one of the integrated steel mills is pushing for remaining 2013 tonnage to be placed right away […]
Buyers are telling Steel Market Update (SMU) that there have been some spot price offers which were held through the end of this past week. Most, however, are informing us that those mills who publicly announced new pricing are asking for increases and holding the line. We don’t doubt that there could be some orders placed […]
Based on our survey results, hot rolled and cold rolled lead times barely moved compared to two weeks ago. Galvanized lead times shrunk slightly from 6.00 weeks to 5.84 and Galvalume lead times dropped from 6.80 weeks to 6.33 weeks. The current lead times are longer than they were one year ago on all products […]
With the new pricing announcements we have gotten quite a mix bag of responses regarding flat rolled steel spot prices for this week. We have taken into consideration transactions, our survey results to date and offers which have been presented to buyers so far this week. By the time we went to publish we had […]
Our survey results from this past week pointed to a weakening in the resolve of a number of service centers. There are a group of distributors who believe that prices have only one direction to go from here – lower. Fed by the belief that their inventories will depreciate from here, a number of service […]
One of our service center contacts told Steel Market Update recently, “The ending of indexed pricing for many is just around the corner which is a major positive but hearing little of this from SMU. [The] mills still trying to make something – they cannot continue to withstand the losses they have incurred. In fact, […]
We are finding a concerted effort on behalf of the domestic steel mills to hold the line on spot pricing from last week to this week. Stability in pricing appears, for the moment, to be the new normal and some of the service centers are questioning if the next price move might actually be for […]
Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District was stalled in September according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index of manufacturing activity registered 0 following last month’s reading of 14. New orders and shipments slowed compared to August. Lead times were unchanged at an index reading of 1 for the second month. Shipments […]
SMU found lead times essentially remaining the same on hot rolled (negligible change from 4.0 weeks to 3.97 weeks) and galvanized (6.0 weeks vs. prior 6.07 weeks). Cold rolled lead times dropped from 6.2 weeks to 6.06 weeks while Galvalume lead times moved out slightly from 6.55 weeks to 6.80 weeks. Lead times are […]
Every month HARDI members conduct a steel conference call to discuss what member companies are seeing regarding galvanized steel prices and demand for steel products within their regional markets. Steel Market Update, as a HARDI member company, is an active participant in these monthly calls. Over the past four weeks HARDI wholesalers have seen the […]
According to just released MSCI data, total steel shipments out of the U.S. service centers were reported to be 3,632,900 tons during the month of August 2013. The daily shipping rate rose from 157,500 tons per day in July to 165,100 tons per day in August. Compared to August 2012 shipments (all products) were lower […]
We noticed a little slippage in flat rolled steel prices over the past week. As one steel executive put it to SMU this afternoon, “Prices are in retreat – only at a snail’s pace.” One of our manufacturing sources told us that they had seen prices slip over the past two weeks, “We have seen […]
It has been an eerily quiet week. A number of mills have been in meetings and the MSCI is holding their forecasting summit in the Chicago area on Monday and Tuesday of this week. We did capture a few interesting numbers (such as HR at $610) but not in enough volume to warrant making any […]
Flat rolled steel service centers have moved away from pushing spot flat rolled price increases as they were at the beginning of July and then again at the beginning of August. Those reporting that their company was keeping steel prices the same grew from 23 percent at the beginning of August to 60 percent this […]
Mill lead times, as reported through our proprietary steel market survey, are shrinking on three of the four flat rolled product categories followed by Steel Market Update. Hot rolled lead times which were referenced on a weighted average basis at 4.5 weeks at the beginning of August are now at 4.0 weeks. However, the 4.0 […]
As we entered the month of August we found flat rolled steel prices trending higher. Prices began rising 10 weeks earlier (late May) after U.S. Steel announced the first of three rounds of price increases. On May 21st the Steel Market Update (SMU) hot rolled coil average price was $565 per ton ($28.25/cwt) and by […]
SMU was speaking with one of the steel mills this morning who was lamenting about the drop in spot galvanized base prices from the $37.50/cwt level to down around $36.00/cwt base prices. Two conversion mills were mentioned as being the culprits leading the charge. Not everyone (yet) is participating but this mill executive thought it […]
The Chicago Business Barometer edged up 0.7 points in August, registering 53 from a reading of 52.3 in July, according to MNI Indicators. A gain in New Orders and Backlogs helped push the indicator upwards. The slight increase, however, indicates stabilization after an erratic second quarter. MNI reports the Barometer is still too close to […]
When is Sunday really Monday and Tuesday suppose to be Wednesday…? One of the changes SMU is making is to date our newsletters on the day they are actually produced and sent. So, you will note that tonight’s newsletter is dated, Tuesday, September 3rd as opposed to Wednesday, September 4th. SMU will produce three Executive […]
We are picking up a very mixed bag over the past two days regarding spot flat rolled pricing. As we go through the process we ask ourselves is the spot pricing market glass half full (meaning prices will go higher from here) or half empty (meaning prices will move lower). We don’t have a clear […]
On Friday, August 23rd, Steel Market Update adjusted our SMU Price Momentum Indicator from “Higher” to “Neutral.” This change is meant to be an indicator of the direction we expect flat rolled steel prices to move over the next 30 days. Prior to Friday our Indicator was set at Higher for 10.5 weeks going back […]
Financial Markets: When I last wrote, I mentioned that the SP 500 was likely headed to 1720 before a retracement and then an eventual rally up the 1775 zone. Well the SP 500 reached 1709 on August 2nd from which we have since retraced to 1640 yesterday. We settled today at 1657. In this retracement […]
Lead times slipped slightly across the board compared to where we saw them at the beginning of August. The lead times reported by those responding to our Steel Market Update (SMU) steel survey dropped from 4.5 weeks on hot rolled (weighted average) to 4.11 weeks. This is still well above where we were reporting lead […]
You will hear the term “spread” quite often when discussing the differences between flat rolled steel prices from one source to another. The term can be used when discussing domestic steel mills and their differences in pricing on the same product. It can also be used when discussing the differences between foreign steel imports and […]
From time to time SMU gets emails from our readers that we think others might find interesting. Here are a couple examples: In an email with the title “Bingo” we received the following comments from a large galvanized service center: “The bet is the first sign of weakness will come out of the conversion mills […]
Written by: John Packard With other periodicals calling a top or “peak” to the market the pressure has been put on Steel Market Update to clear up the muddied waters. From our perspective, the peak is usually identified when one of the domestic mills breaks ranks and starts cutting deals at numbers less than what […]
Written by: John Packard Essentially our review of the market has found little measurable movement in spot flat rolled prices this week. The opinion of many buyers is the market is closer to the top and any purchases need to be carefully considered prior to making any commitments. Buyers continue to express confidence in their […]
With other periodicals calling a top or “peak” to flat rolled prices, the pressure has been put on Steel Market Update to clear up the muddied waters. From our perspective, the peak is usually identified when one of the domestic steel mills breaks ranks and starts cutting deals at numbers less than what they were […]
The main issue driving steel prices during the month of July was supply and the constraints in supply related to production issues at the North American steel producers. U.S. Steel Lake Erie Works continued to be on lockout throughout July. The 2.5 million ton a year slab and hot rolled mill was first locked out […]