The combination of higher spot prices and adjustments to contract negotiations has caused some buyers of flat rolled steel to seek alternatives to their normal domestic source of supply. Steel Market Update is beginning to get confirmations from both manufacturing companies and service centers of larger foreign tonnage purchases being made for 1st and early […]
The domestic steel mills continued to put pressure on spot market pricing which resulted in another small increase in our flat rolled price assessments for this week. We continue to hear from buyers that prices are only somewhat negotiable ($10-$30 per ton off of the price announcement levels). This is somewhat of a change from […]
On August 23rd Steel Market Update adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Higher to Neutral. Since that time benchmark hot rolled prices have been within $5 per ton (+/-) of $640 per ton until this past week when prices rose by $15 per ton. Essentially, we began capturing transactions and offers related to the price […]
A decline in business activity is forecast for the next three months by metalforming companies participating in the October Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. Survey participants also expect incoming orders to decline over the next three months. The forecast was similar to September’s predictions but PMA President William E. Gaskin indicated the pessimism […]
Domestic mill lead times, which had been relatively flat since the beginning of September according to past SMU steel market surveys, are beginning to indicate a modest strengthening. Our survey respondents put hot rolled lead times at 4.07 weeks (last year in mid-October they were 2.93 weeks) which is up slightly from the 3.94 weeks […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) is seeing prices beginning to rise on all flat rolled products. With a couple minor exceptions mostly contained to the South, we have been seeing a united front and mills are telling SMU that they have been able to collect most, if not all, of the price increases announced. We continue […]
A note from one of my long-time readers, “You need to get more controversial in your final thoughts. Tell us what you think.” I have taken a relatively low profile (although some might disagree) regarding my opinions on mill price negotiations – both contract and spot. So the way I will respond to my long-time […]
There is a lot going on regarding contracts, contract negotiations and the timing of when orders/commitments need to be placed with the domestic steel mills. SMU has had direct conversations and seen email correspondence which suggests at least one of the integrated steel mills is pushing for remaining 2013 tonnage to be placed right away […]
Buyers are telling Steel Market Update (SMU) that there have been some spot price offers which were held through the end of this past week. Most, however, are informing us that those mills who publicly announced new pricing are asking for increases and holding the line. We don’t doubt that there could be some orders placed […]
Based on our survey results, hot rolled and cold rolled lead times barely moved compared to two weeks ago. Galvanized lead times shrunk slightly from 6.00 weeks to 5.84 and Galvalume lead times dropped from 6.80 weeks to 6.33 weeks. The current lead times are longer than they were one year ago on all products […]
With the new pricing announcements we have gotten quite a mix bag of responses regarding flat rolled steel spot prices for this week. We have taken into consideration transactions, our survey results to date and offers which have been presented to buyers so far this week. By the time we went to publish we had […]
Our survey results from this past week pointed to a weakening in the resolve of a number of service centers. There are a group of distributors who believe that prices have only one direction to go from here – lower. Fed by the belief that their inventories will depreciate from here, a number of service […]
One of our service center contacts told Steel Market Update recently, “The ending of indexed pricing for many is just around the corner which is a major positive but hearing little of this from SMU. [The] mills still trying to make something – they cannot continue to withstand the losses they have incurred. In fact, […]
We are finding a concerted effort on behalf of the domestic steel mills to hold the line on spot pricing from last week to this week. Stability in pricing appears, for the moment, to be the new normal and some of the service centers are questioning if the next price move might actually be for […]
Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District was stalled in September according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index of manufacturing activity registered 0 following last month’s reading of 14. New orders and shipments slowed compared to August. Lead times were unchanged at an index reading of 1 for the second month. Shipments […]
SMU found lead times essentially remaining the same on hot rolled (negligible change from 4.0 weeks to 3.97 weeks) and galvanized (6.0 weeks vs. prior 6.07 weeks). Cold rolled lead times dropped from 6.2 weeks to 6.06 weeks while Galvalume lead times moved out slightly from 6.55 weeks to 6.80 weeks. Lead times are […]
Every month HARDI members conduct a steel conference call to discuss what member companies are seeing regarding galvanized steel prices and demand for steel products within their regional markets. Steel Market Update, as a HARDI member company, is an active participant in these monthly calls. Over the past four weeks HARDI wholesalers have seen the […]
According to just released MSCI data, total steel shipments out of the U.S. service centers were reported to be 3,632,900 tons during the month of August 2013. The daily shipping rate rose from 157,500 tons per day in July to 165,100 tons per day in August. Compared to August 2012 shipments (all products) were lower […]
We noticed a little slippage in flat rolled steel prices over the past week. As one steel executive put it to SMU this afternoon, “Prices are in retreat – only at a snail’s pace.” One of our manufacturing sources told us that they had seen prices slip over the past two weeks, “We have seen […]
It has been an eerily quiet week. A number of mills have been in meetings and the MSCI is holding their forecasting summit in the Chicago area on Monday and Tuesday of this week. We did capture a few interesting numbers (such as HR at $610) but not in enough volume to warrant making any […]
Flat rolled steel service centers have moved away from pushing spot flat rolled price increases as they were at the beginning of July and then again at the beginning of August. Those reporting that their company was keeping steel prices the same grew from 23 percent at the beginning of August to 60 percent this […]
Mill lead times, as reported through our proprietary steel market survey, are shrinking on three of the four flat rolled product categories followed by Steel Market Update. Hot rolled lead times which were referenced on a weighted average basis at 4.5 weeks at the beginning of August are now at 4.0 weeks. However, the 4.0 […]
As we entered the month of August we found flat rolled steel prices trending higher. Prices began rising 10 weeks earlier (late May) after U.S. Steel announced the first of three rounds of price increases. On May 21st the Steel Market Update (SMU) hot rolled coil average price was $565 per ton ($28.25/cwt) and by […]
SMU was speaking with one of the steel mills this morning who was lamenting about the drop in spot galvanized base prices from the $37.50/cwt level to down around $36.00/cwt base prices. Two conversion mills were mentioned as being the culprits leading the charge. Not everyone (yet) is participating but this mill executive thought it […]
The Chicago Business Barometer edged up 0.7 points in August, registering 53 from a reading of 52.3 in July, according to MNI Indicators. A gain in New Orders and Backlogs helped push the indicator upwards. The slight increase, however, indicates stabilization after an erratic second quarter. MNI reports the Barometer is still too close to […]
When is Sunday really Monday and Tuesday suppose to be Wednesday…? One of the changes SMU is making is to date our newsletters on the day they are actually produced and sent. So, you will note that tonight’s newsletter is dated, Tuesday, September 3rd as opposed to Wednesday, September 4th. SMU will produce three Executive […]
We are picking up a very mixed bag over the past two days regarding spot flat rolled pricing. As we go through the process we ask ourselves is the spot pricing market glass half full (meaning prices will go higher from here) or half empty (meaning prices will move lower). We don’t have a clear […]
On Friday, August 23rd, Steel Market Update adjusted our SMU Price Momentum Indicator from “Higher” to “Neutral.” This change is meant to be an indicator of the direction we expect flat rolled steel prices to move over the next 30 days. Prior to Friday our Indicator was set at Higher for 10.5 weeks going back […]
Financial Markets: When I last wrote, I mentioned that the SP 500 was likely headed to 1720 before a retracement and then an eventual rally up the 1775 zone. Well the SP 500 reached 1709 on August 2nd from which we have since retraced to 1640 yesterday. We settled today at 1657. In this retracement […]
Lead times slipped slightly across the board compared to where we saw them at the beginning of August. The lead times reported by those responding to our Steel Market Update (SMU) steel survey dropped from 4.5 weeks on hot rolled (weighted average) to 4.11 weeks. This is still well above where we were reporting lead […]