Last evening (Thursday, October 31st) Steel Market Update adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Higher. We now believe domestic flat rolled steel prices will rise over the next 30 to 60 days. We have already begun reporting prices as rising over the past three weeks. Prices on benchmark hot rolled coil had been […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty six. The present situation of eleven of the indicators based on historical standards was positive on October 31st and thirteen were negative; […]
Last evening (Thursday, October 31st) Steel Market Update adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Higher. We now believe domestic flat rolled steel prices will rise over the next 30 to 60 days. We have already begun reporting prices as rising over the past three weeks. Prices on benchmark hot rolled coil had been […]
In my last ditty, I mentioned we were likely headed to the 1775-1800 area on the S&P 500. Well yesterday we reached 1775. However, the Fed statement from their October meeting yesterday had just enough language changes from the September meeting that some felt nervous and got out of some of their positions and the […]
Altos Hornos de Mexico (AHMSA) reported a net loss of 520 million pesos ($40.3 million) in the third quarter of 2013, as compared to a net loss of $26.6 million in third quarter 2012. Sales were 9.475 million pesos ($735.2 million) on shipment of 886,524 tonnes of steel product, down from sales of $751.1 million […]
TSI Iron Ore: Market Soften As Rebar Slides Iron ore prices have been fairly volatile over the past week as conflicting data and information coming out of China as moved the needle in opposite directions. The upshot to all of this intraday volatility is that prices remain fairly unchanged on a week-on-week basis. With rebar […]
Completion of the Essar Steel Minnesota taconite project has been delayed until late 2015 according company officials. The facility, begun in 2008, was originally slated for completion in 2013 and would increase annual production of taconite pellets from 4 million tonnes to 7 million tonnes. Essar Steel Minnesota CEO and President Madhu Vuupuluri said production […]
Financial Markets: Okay now that that mess is over with, the S+P 500 and other U.S markets can get back to the business of what they do best – Go Up! In fact we, have already reached all time highs (again) today with the S+P 500 at 1733. As I noted, we are likely headed […]
Shipping in the Capesize Market is beginning to slow down after a strong September driven by iron ore restocking in China and exports of ore from Brazil. According to the MID-SHIP Report on Oct. 10, average Capesize earnings fell to $33,368 from $42,211 two weeks ago. Time charters averaged $30,000 prompting owners to turnover cargo […]
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research metals and mining analyst, Timna Tanners was recognized by Institutional Investor as the top analyst in the space. Last year, Institutional Investor ranked Ms. Tanners as the second best analyst in the metals and mining space which includes the steel industry. Tanners has been with Bank of America Merrill […]
On the Far East Asia side, market for finished products is still weak and in an oversupply situation. Most Asian mills coming into October will resume full production schedules after the summer time electricity curtailments. However, this added production is going into a weak finish demand situation. Consequently, even with the recent slide in the […]
Financial Markets: Two weeks back we suspected that the SP 500 and other US equities markets would struggle with all this Government Shutdown shenanegans. Sure enough, the SP 500 dropped progressively down to a low of 1646 yesterday from the 1697 level we had two weeks ago. However, since the announcement today of the preverbial […]
TSI Iron Ore: Market Quiet During Chinese Golden Week… Iron ore prices have remained steady over the past week as the Chinese have been off for their Golden Week holiday. Demand while steady appears to be seen as fragile by many. The market remains in backwardation with prices down the curve continuing to trade at a […]
September ended with the SMU Price Momentum Indicator pointing toward Neutral. In light of the price increase announcements beginning to come out of the domestic steel mills we will continue our Neutral position allowing all the mills to announce (or not) and buyers to react before making a change toward one direction or another. SMU […]
When I last wrote two weeks back the SP 500 had failed to break down as expected and technicals suggested we were headed to 1775 as next long term target. Well within one week of that report the SP 500 hit 1730 from that Sep 12th 1685 area. This rally was in large part due […]
The shipping industry is set for a profitable year for the first time since 2010 according to the September 25 MID-SHIP Report. Freight rates are continuing to rise and demand for large size ships is finally beginning to outpace supply. The industry has faced a supply glut partially due to shipyards offering vessels at low […]
A storage dome collapse will delay the start-up of Nucor’s new DRI plant in Convent, La., until the end of the year said Nucor officials in a press release on Sept. 26. On Wednesday afternoon, one of three storage domes for storage of iron ore pellets, suffered structural failure and collapsed, creating what sounded like […]
U.S. steel industry members are challenging proposed changes to Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Buy America laws that will affect manufactured products, ferry boat equipment, and pig iron and processed, pelletized, and reduced iron ores. The FHWA sought comments from the public regarding the continued, need, in whole or part for the general waivers on […]
TSI Iron Ore: Prices Wobble in Signs Market is Cooling… Iron ore prices have softened over the past couple of weeks, but are still holding the recent range above $130 per ton. Mixed news out of China regarding steel demand has cooled off buying for the time being as the market has failed to break […]
Iron Ore The spot price is still $135/MT zone with the forward curve still in a healthy backwardation. Most expect Iron Ore to retrace, difference of opinion lies in whether it will see a big sell off or a modest one. The recent positive economic data out of China along with not terrible inventory levels […]
Freight rates on seabourne vessels have escalated according to this week’s data in the MID-SHIP Report. Prices have been volatile over the past few months and are expected to continue to rise in the fourth quarter. Oversupply of vessels continues to be a problem but economic improvement in the EU, America and China, and […]
ThyssenKrupp AG has told the media that reports of them not selling the Steel Americas assets and that they may keep the facilities are erroneous. Steel Market Update (SMU) understanding of the current negotiation process is CSN is the leading company in negotiations. The most recent development has CSN purchasing the steel mill in Calvert, […]
I read two articles recently regarding the impact of the devaluation of the India rupee against the U.S. dollar. One article (IHS Global Insight) discussed the metallurgical coal markets as the Indian steel mills have pulled back from the market as their costs spiral out of control. According to IHS Global the Indian currency lost […]
TSI Iron Ore: Prices Stay Firm, Future Is Uncertain… After breaking through the psychological ceiling of $140/ ton a couple of weeks ago, the iron ore spot market has retreated ever so slightly to $137. While this is not necessarily an indication of a reversal in the pricing trend, it may shed light on […]
Financial Markets: Since last week’s writing the SP 500 has since rallied to test the old support above at 1670 to then fail and drop to 1627 before rebounding in the last two days to 1642. As I mentioned, we are likely in a retracement move down to the 1550 target before we can find […]
Cliffs Natural Resources announced Tuesday that it has entered a nine year agreement to provide iron ore pellets to AK Steel. The new agreement runs from 2014 through 2023. Cliffs will continue to supply AK Steel under its previous agreement from now until 2014. The new agreement sets minimum and maximum volume purchases from Cliffs […]
The Far East and Southeast Asian ferrous scrap markets have been on the uptrend since the end of July. Since mid-July, scrap prices have risen approximately $20-$25/metric ton. This coincides with Tokyo Steel in Japan increasing scrap prices twice by approximately $24/MT. The increase in scrap prices were reactionary as steel stockists ramped purchases from […]
Oversupply is likely to weaken China steel prices in the second half of 2013 said Baosteel General Manger Dai Zhihao to analysts on Monday. Profit margins have fallen in China with Baosteel reporting a 61.47 percent year over year drop in earnings for the first half of 2013. Overcapacity of nearly 300 million surplus tonnes […]
Currency update August 22nd 2013. The Federal Reserve publishes a trade weighted index of the value of the US dollar against a basket of the currencies of our major trading partners on a daily and monthly basis. This is referred to as the Broad Index. The Broad Index appreciated strongly in the 3rd Quarter of […]
Financial Markets: When I last wrote, I mentioned that the SP 500 was likely headed to 1720 before a retracement and then an eventual rally up the 1775 zone. Well the SP 500 reached 1709 on August 2nd from which we have since retraced to 1640 yesterday. We settled today at 1657. In this retracement […]