April turned out to be a month where supply disruptions squeezed the life out of non-repentant steel buyers: flat rolled steel buyers who had run their inventories too lean or who hesitated when U.S. Steel Great Lakes went down, only to be ambushed by steelmaking curtailments at USS Gary Works (and elsewhere) due to iron […]
The following chart is based on price variances from the end of March until the most recent numbers produced at the end of April. All commodities saw price increases with the exception of iron ore which was down quite dramatically (China spot market).
Iron ore prices continue to boil and bubble, with the key word being bubble. At the beginning of April, 62% Fe fines were trading at $117 per dry metric ton (dmt). They peaked nine days later at $119.4/dmt and since then the air has been leaking out of the bubble. On Wednesday, iron ore prices […]
Financial Markets We are still in the testing of the highs mode, closing in the 1877.50 zone on S+P 500, not much different from a week back. Need to take the out the old high and test 1900 again, otherwise… The Fed tapered on the easing, paring the buying program back $10 bln /month again–think […]
This article is part of a longer article first published on Thursday, May 1st and is written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC and our Managing Price Risk II instructor: Steel It was a fairly quiet week in futures with 400 lots or 8,000 ST trading most of yesterday on the July date. […]
Iron ore prices continue to boil and bubble, with the key word being bubble. At the beginning of April, 62% Fe fines were trading at $117 per dry metric ton (dmt). They peaked nine days later at $119.4/dmt and since then the air has been leaking out of the bubble. On Wednesday, iron ore prices […]
Steel Market Update continuously is in conversation with flat rolled steel buyers from around the country. We have noticed a growing nervousness within the steel community as the buyers grapple with ever higher steel prices and extended lead times. In some cases the lead times on foreign material are not much more than what the […]
According to a note recently received from one of our active trading sources in Asia, iron ore traders are under pressure as port stocks hit 112.63 million metric tons and new orders for steel exports become more difficult due to anti-dumping sentiment against Chinese steel around the world. Our source told SMU late last week, […]
One of the products which is provided to our Premium Level members only is our Key Market Indicators. Our KMI analysis is showing an improving (more positives than negatives) situation, especially in the flat rolled steel markets. An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers […]
According to a note recently received from one of our active trading sources in Asia, iron ore traders are under pressure as port stocks hit 112.63 million metric tons and new orders for steel exports become more difficult due to anti-dumping sentiment against Chinese steel around the world. Our source told SMU late last week, […]
Steel Market Update has been carefully watching the progress of iron ore shipments to U.S. Steel Gary Works. Earlier this month, US Steel reported the curtailment of steelmaking operations at the Gary Works plant. The Gary steel mill is the largest production facility for US Steel with four blast furnaces and two BOP’s with three […]
A large portion of the recent Nucor 1st Quarter earnings conference call with analysts was devoted to the progress of the company’s DRI (direct reduced iron) project which is called Nucor Louisiana. First Quarter 2014 was the first full quarter that the equipment was up and running. Nucor Louisiana is home to the largest single […]
The US Army Corp of Engineers Buffalo District will be dredging the upper and lower Cuyahoga River in 2014 to improve the navigation canal that is used to deliver iron ore to Cleveland’s steel mills. Nearly 10 million tons of cargo travel through Cleveland Harbor and the Cuyahoga River each year according to the Port […]
With the various flat rolled indexes reporting hot rolled pricing approaching $680 per ton in the mill spot market we are quite close to the $685 announced by Nucor on April 4th and matched by a number of the domestic steel mills. The question now is will the mills attempt to move prices up to […]
The following is an analysis of trading over the past week in the financial markets, especially in the hot rolled coil derivatives (futures) and busheling scrap futures markets. This article was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC and the instructor for the Steel Market Update Managing Price Risk series including our newest addition: […]
Details on steel trade data out of China were released earlier this week regarding iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore during March were 73,960,000 metric tons (MT), an increase of 20.8 percent from the previous month and an increase of 14.6 percent from March […]
For our plate customers, SSAB announced a $40 per ton plate price increase effective immediately. We will see if it sticks in the marketplace. We have a couple of minor bugs and tweaks we are working out of our systems and then we will release our Managing Price Risk II: Strategies & Execution workshop for […]
The enormous undertaking by the US and Canadian Coast Guard to clear the Great Lakes of ice this year underscores the need for passage of the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA). Over 200 million tons of cargo, including iron ore and coal for steel mills, are shipped every year through the Great Lakes, according to […]
AK Steel CEO James Wainscott, in the company’s earnings conference call with analysts, reported that their blast furnaces were running at reduced capacities due to the ice problems on the Great Lakes. US Steel has been upfront by reporting their Gary Works steelmaking operations are running at less than capacity as they struggle to get […]
AK Steel reported a net loss of $86.1 million in the first quarter of 2014, compared to a net income of $35.2 million in the previous quarter. Net sales for Q1 were $1.38 billion on steel shipments of 1,262,100 tons, compared to Q1 2013 net sales of $1.37 billion on shipments of 1,289,800 tons, and […]
Chinese statistical data is always questioned for a number of reasons, not least is, “Is the data politically motivated.” Other suspicions arise because China gets their data out faster than any other major economy and the data is never revised. However at SMU we believe that in spite of these concerns what we have is […]
We learned today that ArcelorMittal will be taking down their #7 blast furnace at Indiana Harbor for two months: June & July 2014 (scheduled maintenance). The #7 furnace is capable of producing up to 11,500 tons of molten pig iron per day when ready at full capacity. Our assumption is US Steel Gary Works should […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our mid-April steel market survey this past week. Early in the survey process we approached a subject that we know is near and dear to those within the steel industry – where do our respondents see demand for their products. What we found is a clear sign of improving demand. […]
Steel Dynanics CEO Mark Millett and other officers of the steel mill provided their review of the company’s first quarter earnings as well as their insights into the various markets they serve as well as the challenges and opportunities they see in front of them. SMU found one comment interesting as Mr. Millett feels there […]
Ice coverage on the Great Lakes is beginning to subside with 36.7 percent coverage reported by NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory as of April 19. Ice persists, however, in Lake Superior and the northern sections of Lake Michigan and Lake Huron. Ice continues to clog the locks through Sault Ste. Marie. It is the […]
US Steel Gary Works is not alone as the mill limps along on two of its blast furnaces operating at reduced capacities due to a lack of raw materials. According to a US Steel spokesperson nothing has changed over the past five or six days as the mill waits for further shipments coming from Northern […]
All of the current production issues are relegated to the northern fully integrated steel mills. One of our service center contacts laid out the production scenario and how it is impacting the other northern steel producers: “The Great Lakes outage, and then accident during repair, and the Gary reduction in output is the important factor […]
The convoy of freighters headed to Minnesota under US and Canadian Coast Guard escort arrived safely on Monday morning. The ships dispersed to begin loading iron ore pellets and to queue up for the return convoy east across the Great Lakes to the mills. USCG Mackinaw is expected to depart Duluth this afternoon to escort […]
The Asian scrap markets is currently stable and predicted to slow down both regarding demand as well as pricing over the next few weeks. Mainly, summer time electricity curtailments are scheduled to take effect in early May. Currently: • China Fe63.% Indian Iron ore at about $116-117/dmt. Somewhat stable +/-$1/dmt currently• Asian FX rates have […]
The Broad Index value of the US Dollar has been gradually increasing for 18 months (Figure 1) which tends of raise imports to the US and depress exports. The broad index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the U.S. Dollar against the currencies of a large group of major U.S. trading […]