The housing bubble in China has popped according to economists. The oversupply of housing and shortage of developer financing will slow China’s GDP growth to less than 6 percent in 2014 says a recent report by Japanese investment company Nomura. Nomura says a “hard landing” may be in China’s future due to a 33 percent […]
We have been working on trying to get a handle on scrap prices and adjustments in the costs the domestic steel mills will have for scrap during the month of June. SMU sources advised us that with the exception of prime grades of scrap most mills cancelled their remaining orders at the end of the […]
Steel inputs were steady to down during the month of May. Scrap prices declined $18 to $3 per ton while iron ore prices were down $20.60 to $13.60 per ton. Zinc and Aluminum prices showed a slight increased of $0.0105 to $0.0074 per pound.
I was asked a number of times today – in a couple of different ways – why Steel Market Update has not adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral where it has been for about one month to Lower. The reality is we have been watching spot flat rolled pricing quite closely to see at […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty five, the Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index is still on hold to enable the staff to complete a major re-vamp of the […]
Steel Market Update has been following the Armada Corporate Intelligence economists since we first heard Dr. Chris Kuehl present at a conference we attended earlier this year. We were so impressed with both Dr. Kuehl’s (pronounced Keel) presentation skills and their newsletter that we invited Dr. Kuehl to be a keynote speaker at this year’s […]
Steel Market Update has a close contact who is an active iron ore and steel trader in Asia. He sells iron ore to the Chinese steel mills and then he buys steel from the Chinese (and other Asian) steel mills and ships it around the world. Over the past couple of days we got deeply […]
Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC and our Managing Price Risk I and Managing Price Risk II: Strategies & Execution instructor penned the following commentary on the financial, iron ore, scrap and steel markets and the results of trading on the HRC and BUS Futures markets over this past week. More information about futures can […]
Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC and our Managing Price Risk I and Managing Price Risk II: Strategies & Execution instructor penned the following commentary on the iron ore, scrap and steel markets and the results of trading on the HRC and BUS Futures markets over this past week (as of May 29th). More information […]
The China Ministry of Finance is urging the government to step up spending to support growth in the Chinese economy. The announcement on May 28 follows a call for action by Premier Li Keqiang to increase development projects, which he considers a panacea for China’s economic woes. The notice by the Ministry has three key […]
The past couple of weeks have been a bit brutal for the US hot rolled coil (HRC) forward curve. While the spot market is appearing to run out of steam the HRC forward curve has broken down particularly the second half 2014 periods and calendar 2015 periods. May and June have withstood this recent selling […]
Chinese steel trade data for April 2014 was released earlier this week, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in April were 83,390,000 metric tons, an increase of 12.8 percent from the previous month and an increase of 24.2 percent from […]
The psychological barrier has been broken! Iron ore spot prices broke below $100 for the first time this year as 62% Fe fines were reported to be $97.5 per dry metric ton (dmt) today according to The Steel Index. The $97.5/dmt number is the 52-week low with the high being $142.8/dmt. The last time iron […]
Iron ore spot prices in China have been falling and may continue to decline to the lows last seen in September 2012 when prices for 62% Fe fines reached into the $80’s (currently trading at $97.5/dmt). Steel Market Update has been reviewing the relationship between iron ore and ferrous scrap prices using shredded scrap as […]
The “Buy America” plan for federally subsidized projects is problematic for two major U.S. steel mills owned by foreign companies. The push to use American sourced steel products in infrastructure projects is keeping NLMK USA and California Steel Industries (CSI) out of the running for bids on projects—a problem the companies are hoping to rectify […]
The “Buy America” plan for federally subsidized projects is problematic for two major U.S. steel mills owned by foreign companies. The push to use American sourced steel products in infrastructure projects is keeping NLMK USA and California Steel Industries (CSI) out of the running for bids on projects—a problem the companies are hoping to rectify […]
Steel Market Update was advised on Friday from one of our iron ore and steel trading sources in Asia that the Chinese export markets are in turmoil as spot iron ore prices drop, domestic (China) steel prices are dropping and export offers are being hit as well. On Friday of this past week The Steel […]
On Wednesday, Steel Market Update adjusted our SMU Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral from Higher. Our Price Momentum Indicator had been pointing toward Higher prices ever since March 25, 2014. Over the past seven weeks, hot rolled coil prices advanced from $630 to a high of $685 per ton based on the Steel Market Update […]
The following article is written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and the instructor for our brand new Managing Price Risk II: Strategies & Execution workshop. Every week we produce an article about futures trading and, in Andre’s case, about the broader financial markets. Andre begins with the a look at the financial […]
The finished steel stockists have been buying finished products the last two weeks. However, the stockists are still keeping very little inventory on a wait and see mode due to the iron ore price collapse (currently abt $102/dmt). The current finished product orders should keep the production smooth for the next 3 weeks in China. […]
The C-5 blast furnace at ArcelorMittal Cleveland suffered a breakout at the taphole on Thursday, May 8. A spokesperson at ArcelorMittal says there were no injuries as a result of the incident and the furnace should be fully operational by the week of May 19. In the meantime, the mill will coordinate with other ArcelorMittal […]
Shipping delays of iron ore on the Great Lakes are finally over. Ice coverage on the Great Lakes is down to 9.1 percent with the remaining ice concentrated in Lake Superior. According to satellite imagery, about 22 percent of Superior is still covered. The US Coast Guard reports there are still small fields of ice […]
ArcelorMittal losses narrowed in the first quarter of 2014. The company posted a net loss of $200 million in the first quarter compared to $345 million in Q1 2013. First quarter EBITDA was $1.75 billion, an increase of 23 percent from Q1 2013. Sales of $19.8 billion were below Q4 and almost par with Q1 […]
The key highlight of first quarter was the Calvert acquisition, said ArcelorMittal CEO Lakshmi Mittal in the company’s first quarter earnings call. ArcelorMittal’s 50 percent ownership of AM/NS Calvert gives AM the capacity needed to supply AHSS solutions for the auto industry in the US and Mexico. ArcelorMittal has been focusing on light weight steels […]
The Broad Index value of the US $ has been gradually strengthening for 18 months (Figure 1), which favors imports to the US and depresses exports. See explanation at the end of this piece. Table 1 shows the number of currency units that it takes to buy one US $ and the percent change in […]
ArcelorMittal’s Canadian iron ore project may begin production as early as third quarter 2014. Last week the Minister of Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development gave final approval for Baffinland Iron Mines, a 50/50 venture between ArcelorMittal and Nunavut Iron Ore, to commence operations. The mine is located in the Qikiqtani region of Nunavit, over 300 […]
Iron ore smuggling has become a concern of the Mexican government with the diversification of the Knights Templar drug cartel into mining operations in the western state of Michoacán. Mexican authorities have seized nearly 200,000 tons of illegally mined and shipped iron ore headed for China so far this year. Last week a ship was […]
You can expect to begin to read a lot of articles calling for prices “peaking” or about the subject of where do prices go from here. The expectation is that prices will move lower and everyone will have an opinion or theory as to why this will happen. Others will make the case for sideways […]
April turned out to be a month where supply disruptions squeezed the life out of non-repentant steel buyers: flat rolled steel buyers who had run their inventories too lean or who hesitated when U.S. Steel Great Lakes went down, only to be ambushed by steelmaking curtailments at USS Gary Works (and elsewhere) due to iron […]
The following chart is based on price variances from the end of March until the most recent numbers produced at the end of April. All commodities saw price increases with the exception of iron ore which was down quite dramatically (China spot market).