Those of us near the Great Lakes (presently experiencing minus degree temperatures and seemingly endless snow) are beginning to wonder if winter 2015 is a repeat of 2014. Last year the Great Lakes had unprecedented ice coverage. The Great Lakes shipping season was delayed into April with cargo shipments plummeting by nearly 7 million tons […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), iron ore and financial futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and our Managing Price Risk I & II instructor. We are working on adding new futures workshops in the coming months. If interested please email us at: […]
“It’s not 2008 or 2009.” We heard this from trading companies, steel service centers and mills during the Port of Tampa Steel Conference this past week. This week we are hearing similar comments as we make our rounds talking to those active in the industry. Prices have been collapsing but there does not appear to […]
Steel Market Update saw an interesting report on the impact of lower scrap prices to the steel industry. The report was produced by metals and mining analysts, Timna Tanners of Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research for her clients. A question Steel Market Update receives on a regular basis is what is the marginal cost […]
The monthly value of the Federal Reserve Broad Index value of the US $ against our major trading partners has continued to strengthen and in January reached 92.44 after breaking 90 in December for the first time since July 2009. The monthly BI is a “Real” inflation adjusted index. The Fed also reports a daily […]
Steel Market Update recently attended the Port of Tampa Steel Conference in Tampa, Florida. When speaking with the service centers and traders it was apparent that we are in a period of time when buyers do not trust that the price today will be any good tomorrow. Our Comparison Price Indices report accentuates the issues […]
During the ArcelorMittal earnings conference call which was conducted this past Friday, Lakshmi Mittal, CEO of AM told the analysts on the call, “At ArcelorMittal, we remain confident, that the steel will remain the material of choice for automotive. We are the leader in providing light weighting products and solutions for our automotive customer and […]
Dry cargo rates continue to plummet as the Baltic Dry Cargo index dropped to record lows last week. The index fell to 553 on Wednesday and continued to slide downward to end the week at 530 points. MID-SHIP says shipowners and operators are suffering major revenue losses, with one owner/operator declaring bankruptcy last week. Charterers […]
ArcelorMittal narrowed its net loss to $1.1 billion in FY 2014 and cut its debt to $15.8 billion, the lowest level since the company was formed in 2006. Cash flow from operations in 2014 totaled $3.9 billion. Consolidated steel shipments for 2014 were up 3 percent year over year to 85.1 million tonnes. Fourth quarter […]
On Monday we will begin our mid-February flat rolled steel market analysis. The market has seen prices dropping over the past few weeks at a rate not seen for a number of years. Our survey will help us not only understand where price offers/orders are today but when we think the bottom will be reached. […]
The following article on the futures market was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk, LLC and our instructor for Managing Price Risk I and II workshops. Financial Markets: Too bad we’re not all money managers as life would be pretty easy – just keep your customer long the market, sit back, and enjoy […]
In Thursday evening’s issue of Steel Market Update we advised that our SMU Pricing Momentum Indicator continues to point to lower steel pricing over the next 30 days. One of our service center readers pointed out two reasons why he believes pricing will move lower when he wrote us, “Prices here are falling due to […]
As we reported last week, prior to negotiations beginning for the month of February market players were predicting ferrous scrap prices would drop by $30-$50 and then $50-$70 per gross ton. Then we heard prices would drop by $100 per gross ton over the months of February and March combined. When the smoke cleared at […]
Earlier this week Steel Market Update suggested that perhaps we are getting close to that time when it is necessary to have a dialogue/debate as to when and at what level will flat rolled steel prices bottom. As of Tuesday of this week, Steel Market Update range for benchmark hot rolled coil was $520 to […]
Even the Cliffs Natural Resources CEO weighed in on the food of foreign steel imports and what the domestic steel industry should do to protect their markets. Lourenco Goncalves is never at a loss for words and his comments made during Cliffs quarterly earnings conference call was no exception. First, the results posted by the […]
Steel Market Update thought it might be worthwhile to pick out some of the comments made by Steel Dynamics CEO Mark Millett during his earnings conference call with analysts late last week. We have focused on comments made about foreign steel, scrap, energy markets and the new Columbus facility. Each of the comments made are […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of December 2014, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in December were 86,850,000 metric tons, an increase of 28.9 percent from the previous month and an increase of 18.4 percent […]
Turmoil continues in the global currency markets as the European Central Bank announced a quantitative easing program last week, S&P downgraded Russian debt to junk status yesterday, the Greek national election on Sunday will result in a strong resistance to EU mandated austerity programs and the Swiss removed the currency cap vs the Euro last […]
Spot iron ore prices in China, which saw a small spike in prices right around the beginning of the New Year, have since continued their slide with 62% Fe fines being reported at $62.8 per dry metric ton (dmt) earlier today by The Steel Index (CFR Tianjin). Iron ore is down 11 percent since the […]
During Nucor’s earnings conference call the company’s CEO, John Ferriola told the analysts that scrap prices would drop “dramatically” during the 1st Quarter 2015. He told the analysts that steel prices have already gone down and scrap prices “have to” follow. Our scrap sources are telling us that lackluster demand at the steel mills, weak […]
AK Steel claimed its best quarter in three and a half years and its best annual performance since 2008. AK Steel reported shipments of 2,010,200 tons in fourth quarter 2014 compared to 1.42 million tons in Q4 2013. The increase exceeded analyst expectations and was due primarily to strong demand from automotive and the addition […]
Ice is rapidly advancing and taking hold of the Great Lakes and the connecting river systems (St. Mary’s, St. Clair and Detroit) between the Great Lakes’ reducing or eliminating transit for iron ore carriers on their way to AK Steel, ArcelorMittal and U.S. Steel’s fully integrated steel mills in the northern portion of the United […]
The U.S. and Canadian Coast Guard are working to keep maritime lanes open in the Great Lakes as the shipping season draws to a close. Operation Coal Shovel, an ice-breaking operation that commenced January 8, has been clearing ice from the southern portion of Lake Huron, Lake St. Clair, the St. Clair and Detroit River […]
First, a correction or clarification from an article done last week about US Steel idling one of their tin plate mills. We understand that USS has tin mill operations in Gary as part of the Gary Works, they also have a plant in Portage, IN which is part of the old National Steel facility and […]
The following article on the futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk, LLC. Financial Markets: The S&P continues to perform, we are last 2054 on the March futures after testing our recent low at 1981 on the 16th. It looks like we are headed back to take out the highs at […]
The following article is a continuation of our Steel Buyers Basics series written by Mario Briccetti. Mario is Principal of Briccetti & Associates, a Supply Chain consulting firm, and can be reached at Mario@mbriccetti.com. Briccetti wrote the following article as part of our Steel Buyers Basics series of articles, many of which can be found […]
A paradigm shift seems to be underway in the HRC futures market now that prices have broken through the critical support level of $600. The CRU is now at $584, which is down over 10 percent from around $665 just three months ago. With futures contracts trading at $580 per ton for the first half […]
Flat rolled steel prices have been dropping over the past few weeks and the wholesalers who service the mechanical contractors are concerned as the pace of the price decline quickens. Earlier today Steel Market Update participated in the HARDI sponsored galvanized steel conference call. HARDI (Heating, Air-conditioning, Refrigeration Distributors International) wholesalers supply galvanized sheet and […]
The following article comes to us from one of our Asian scrap sources, Damon Sun of Daido International. The Asian scrap market is a bit quiet and continued slow downtrend as scrap metal pricing tries to find parity with iron ore. A rough calculation of scrap to iron ore is a ratio of 3.5 to […]