The fundamentals of the Chinese steel markets do not support the recent surge in iron ore prices, according to Goldman Sachs and Li Xinchuang, deputy secretary of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA). Iron ore prices rose earlier this week on an expectation that new government measures to stimulate the economy would result in […]
In Sunday evening’s issue of Steel Market Update we warned our readers that something was happening in China that could impact US steel prices. We have been working on this project ever since and this is what we have learned from multiple sources around the world: Iron ore and steel prices are surging in China. […]
Steel prices have surged in the Chinese domestic market over the past few days. Steel Market Update reported in our Final Thoughts on Sunday evening that something was up and buyers needed to be aware of what is going on around them – both here in North America as well as around the world. Volatility […]
World Steel Exchange Marketing (WSEM) announced that the US Shredded Steel Scrap TSI Index will begin futures trading on the Nasdaq Commodities Exchange (Stockholm) as of March 29, 2016. The 20-gross-ton USA Midwest shredded steel contract will be listed, and quoted, for the current month and each of the next 11 months. The contract will […]
Steel Market Update received the following information about the ferrous scrap markets in Asia and Turkey from Damon Sun of Daido International: There has been aggressive movements in the ferrous scrap markets in Asia and Turkey in recent days. Off the East Coast, Turkish scrap prices are up $12-$15/mt and on the Asian region side, […]
Steel prices continued their three month hike higher as SMU benchmark hot rolled price index (average) for the month was $408 per ton. Even with some minor stumbles noted in hot rolled and cold rolled during the second half of the month, our Price Momentum Indicator is still pointing toward higher prices over the next […]
The US Department of Commerce provided the domestic steel industry a “win” according to early reaction to the just released preliminary determination of antidumping (AD) against China, Brazil, Japan, Russia, India, Korea and the United Kingdom. I have to imagine some will be surprised at the high penalties assigned to a number of countries (see […]
The following article is one of the key proprietary products produced for our Premium level members. We wanted to share it with all of our readers this evening to give everyone a feel for how we are seeing the steel economy based on “the numbers.” An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel (HRC) The CME HR spot month future settlement reflects minimal price movements in physical markets this month as the […]
Currency markets have been anything but stable since our last update on January 25th and this shows up clearly in our examination of the currencies of the steel trading nations. Expectations of four rate hikes by the FOMC seem to have flown out the window. On February 3rd Josh Brown wrote, “Perhaps the biggest headline […]
Seaborne shipping market rates continue to plummet with the Baltic Dry Index reaching another new low this past week. The Index stood at 290 on Wednesday, Feb. 10; a year ago on that date the BDI stood at 556. To get a better perspective on how bad things are, the highest level ever reached was […]
In the twelve eleven months of 2015 bulk scrap exports were 12,955,000 metric tonnes, down by 9.7 percent from 2014 (14,280,000 net tons). The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages (3MMA) for 2015 and on the annual monthly average for previous years. The graph shows that exports declined for three […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
USW members ratified a new three year contract with US Steel on Monday. The ratification passed by a 2-1 margin and will take effect immediately. “I am extremely proud of the solidarity and the commitment to fairness that the Steelworkers showed throughout this process,” said USW International Vice President Tom Conway, who led the union’s […]
The latest MID-SHIP Report reiterates the crisis in the shipping industry calling it “the most significant depression in dry bulk shipping since the mid-1980’s.” The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks shipping rates for dry bulk cargos like iron ore, coal and grain, peaked in May 2008 with an index reading of 11,793 and fell to […]
We ended the month of January on a positive note. SMU Price Momentum Indicator continues to point toward higher prices over the next 30 days. Our Sentiment Index broke through an extended downward (growing pessimism) trend and is now heading higher (more optimistic). We believe a portion of the improvement is due to flat rolled […]
Cliffs Natural Resources narrowed its net loss to $58 million in fourth quarter compared to $1.4 billion in Q4 2014. Full year net loss was $748 million compared to $8.3 billion in the prior year. “Despite the severely negative impacts of global iron ore and domestic steel prices, in 2015 we achieved substantial cost reductions […]
On December 16th the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate for the first time in almost a decade and as we write the FOMC is meeting once again and will make another announcement tomorrow regarding any change to the rate. None is expected though it is anticipated that four hikes could occur in 2016. […]
This article is normally reserved for our Premium members but we felt it would be a good one to share with all of our readers. If you are interested in signing up for a Premium membership or would like a trial, let us know at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com or call (800) 432 3475. Following up on our […]
Essar Steel Algoma will begin the process of looking for a buyer or investor next month according to letters sent to suppliers by CEO Kalyan Ghosh. Under terms of the Debtor In Possession (DIP) Agreement, the company must get court approval for a “broad and investment solicitation process (SISP)” by February 1, 2016. “While we […]
The shipping season on the Great Lakes officially ended with the closing of the Soo Locks on Friday, Jan. 15. The locks in Sault St. Marie are the last to close for the winter season. The Welland Canal, through Ontario, closed on Dec 30 followed by the St. Lawrence Seaway locks on Dec. 31. The […]
On Tuesday, January 19, the Baltic Dry Index hit its lowest point ever, dropping to 363 points. The BDI tracks shipping rates for dry bulk cargos like iron ore, coal and grain and is considered a barometer for global steel trade. To put things in perspective, six months ago, on August 8, 2015, the Index […]
Often with steel related economic statistics it’s useful to compare a given data stream with others which may or may not be causally related. This usually puts the steel data into context and shows whether a direction change is for real. In this piece we are comparing the price of Chicago shredded scrap with the […]
US Steel Canada has received court approval to begin again the sales process for Hamilton and Lake Erie Works. US Steel Canada argued in a motion before the court: “With potential SISP bidders showing interest in USSC’s business and with important operational decisions for 2017 needing to be made beginning in the second half of […]
We are pleased to have Philip Hoffman, Chairman & CEO of Hoffman Iron & Steel provide us his unique insights on both the domestic and international scrap markets as well as his forecast for where international and domestic scrap prices will be headed in the next month or two (and why). As most are aware, […]
In the first eleven months of 2015 bulk scrap exports were 11,762,000 tonnes for an annual rate of 12,831,000 tonnes, down by 17.5 percent from the first eleven months of 2014. The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages (3MMA) for 2015 and on the annual monthly average for previous […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and our Managing Price Risk I & II instructor. Assisting Andre with tonight’s article is Jack Marshall also associated with CrunchRisk. Here is how Andre and Jack saw trading […]
The following article is by contributing writer Damon Sun of Daido International. The Asian markets were anticipating the elimination of China’s export tax rebate, which has not happened yet. Likely, it will not happen. Anticipation of the elimination of China’s export tax rebate would have an impact of 9-13 percent increase in China’s exports of […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. We have made a change to our analysis this month by removing the capacity utilization of both the flat rolled […]
The flat rolled steel price roller coaster did not do the steel mills or companies holding inventory any favors this past year. We saw hot rolled prices drop from just below $650 per net ton (average) at the beginning of the year to the low point of $360 per ton achieved the week of December […]