Price dynamics in the steel market are starting to resemble an inverted yield curve, and market participants should treat the situation with appropriate caution. Plate mills and tube producers have announced significant price increases: $75 for tubular products ($3.75 per cwt), $80 per ton for plate and as much as $240 per ton for quenched and […]
By Trade Attorney Lewis Leibowitz While Section 232 has gotten a lot of attention in the last few years, the antidumping and countervailing duty laws have been the mainstay of protecting domestic industries from steel to aluminum to solar panels to auto parts for many years. In the runup to the 2020 election, the Commerce […]
By Trade Attorney Lewis Leibowitz The Section 232 tariffs are uppermost on people’s minds again, according to questions I’m getting from readers. My view is that the tariffs (and quotas and “monitoring”) have remained because of politics and the lack of ideas for reconciling the irreconcilable. We need a policy that protects domestic steel (and […]
At the top of the news this week, Steel Market Update sources reported that steel supplies are loosening as lead times from the domestic mills shorten and surging imports start to make it into service center inventories. It’s no surprise, then, that steel prices are beginning to moderate. Hot rolled steel prices rose virtually every […]
The week ahead could be pivotal for Section 232, infrastructure spending and the U.S. pivot toward Asia – all of which are increasingly interlinked, according to one policy expert. The Biden administration wants to ease or lift Section 232 tariffs on the European Union as part of efforts to form a broader coalition against China on […]
Finished steel imports into the United States rose by nearly 27% in the first eight months of the year. Census Bureau data reported by the American Iron and Steel Institute showed a 25.5% increase in total steel imports to 20.56 million tons, including a 26.9% increase in finished steel imports to 14.21 million tons, for […]
SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a Director at Cargill Risk Management, and […]
China should no longer get a “free ride” and be able to “back door” imports via the current language in free trade agreements the U.S. has with other countries, said a trio of senators last week in a letter to U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai. The Market Economy Sourcing Act, sponsored by Sens. Bob Casey […]
Much like when seasons change, wholesalers of galvanized steel products sense a whiff of something different in the atmosphere, brought to U.S. shores along with thousands of tons of low-priced imports. “The import market has opened people’s eyes. With that type of a price spread – coupled with auto steel still being impacted by the […]
Nucor plans to build a new, $2.7 billion electric-arc furnace (EAF) sheet mill with annual capacity of three million tons per year in either Ohio, Pennsylvania or West Virginia. The facility is aimed at customers in the Midwest and Northeast as well as at the automotive industry, the Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker said. “These important markets […]
Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week puts the average spot price for hot rolled at an incredible $1,950 per ton. But for the first time in nearly a year, we are not reporting a new record high this week. Our HRC price actually dipped by a small $5 per ton. Next week […]
By Trade Attorney Lewis Leibowitz The announcement last week that the U.S. would work to provide secret technology to Australia for that country to build and operate nuclear-powered submarines turned heads in the United States, but blew minds in France. The nuclear sub deal also terminated a $66 billion deal for France to supply diesel-powered […]
Foreign steel imports continue to entice U.S. buyers with potential discounts of 17% to 42%, according to Steel Market Update’s latest foreign versus domestic hot rolled steel price comparison. With domestic hot rolled averaging $1,950 per ton last week, foreign prices are theoretically $330 to $830 per ton cheaper than domestic prices after taking freight costs, trader […]
U.S. domestic steel demand remains strong, but supplies have been catching up and are largely in balance. These dynamics are starting to show as steel prices have seen a slower rate of rise and may be near a peak. Lead times are also contracting, with hot rolled now below nine weeks. These changes are largely a […]
Mill shipments of steel products rose 2.0% in July to 8.7 million tons, following an increase of 1.7% the month prior. Apparent supply jumped 3.6% in July after a 6.0% increase the prior month. July marks the fifth consecutive month of gains after February’s double-digit contraction. This analysis is based on steel mill shipment data from […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled Please fasten your seatbelts. Hot rolled futures are approaching some near-term turbulence. On the one hand, HR pricing is still […]
Lead times for spot orders of flat rolled and plate products from the mills have all seen notable declines this month, with the exception of Galvalume, according to Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week. The average lead time for hot rolled is now less than nine weeks, down from more than ten […]
Hot-rolled coil prices fell modestly this week for the first time in more than a year, lead times slipped below nine weeks for the first time since mid-April, and inventories continue to inch upward. Everyone is tired of hearing about a “tipping point” to this “unprecedented” market. But how else do you interpret this? Imports, […]
Flat Rolled = 51.6 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 54 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled U.S. service center flat rolled inventories continued to grow in August, while shipments rose from the lower levels seen in July. At the end of August, service centers carried 51.6 shipping days of flat rolled supply on an […]
By CRU Senior Editor Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Steel sheet prices were either little changed or fell w/w across most of the globe, with the U.S. market now joining in the global cooldown. Prices in the U.S. fell w/w for the first time in over year, albeit the decline was only […]
Tonnage moved across the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway has risen significantly thanks to a strong showing from vessels carrying iron ore and steel. Total cargo stood at 22.8 million tons (20.7 million metric tonnes) through the end of August – the midpoint of the Great Lakes shipping season – up more than 5% from 21.7 […]
Sheet prices continue to wobble with hot-rolled coiled prices actually declining, albeit modestly, for the first time in more than a year. The concern: that the market is at a peak – and perhaps heading down the other side. Hot rolled coil prices have been flat in prior weeks, but they have not declined since […]
July apparent steel supply increased 312,000 tons over June to 9.70 million net tons, according to the latest U.S. Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute data. This is now the highest supply level seen since January 2019, a 30-month record. July supply is up 2.73 million tons compared to the same month […]
Container ships are stacking up all around the U.S. as the ports are overwhelmed by surging imports of all types of goods. Delays at the ports may further extend the already-long lead times for the growing orders of foreign steel. Imports of all types of products from Asia, for example, increased 32.4% in the first […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Market fundamentals in the North American sheet market continue to evolve and clearly suggest that supply tightness is easing. From a broad point of view, these fundamentals include rising supply, service center inventories that are balanced with outbound shipments, and demand growth that […]
By CRU Aluminum Advisor Greg Wittbecker Steel and aluminum are vigorous competitors, but share a common plight, supply chain woes. Just-in-time manufacturing, lean manufacturing, vendor-managed inventory…we all know the buzzwords that have shaped the way both the aluminum and steel supply chains have operated for several decades. Since the Global Financial Crisis, the primary aluminum market […]
By CRU Aluminum Advisor Greg Wittbecker China has been wrestling with inflationary tendencies in its aluminum market for some time: Spot Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) high aluminum is at $3,516 per ton; that compares to $2,139 a year ago and $1,849 five years ago. The Chinese State Reserve Board (SRB) is releasing part of its […]
The end of summer marks a return to normal in Washington. Congress is back, and so are the president’s cabinet and advisors. This is the time of year for officials to float new ideas. In the international trade arena, American business groups grew increasingly impatient with the lack of ideas on resetting the economic relationship […]
The first rule of predicting steel prices in 2021 is you don’t predict steel prices. I broke that rule last month when I called a peak. I still think I was right about that. But timing is everything. And when exactly we hit that peak remains a matter of debate. Some market participants think we’re […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. David has over 20 years of trading experience in financial markets and has been active in the ferrous futures space for over eight years. You can learn more at www.thefeldstein.com or add him on twitter @TheFeldstein and on Instragram at #thefeldstein. Since Aug. […]