We’ve been writing a lot about fob mill prices falling. That’s not happening in a vacuum. Service center resale prices are coming down as well. That’s notable because service center resale prices, like mill lead times, are usually a reliable indicator of which way steel prices will go in the months ahead. What’s also notable […]
International trade has become increasingly important to the US economy and national security over the last seven decades. But in recent years, we have lost our confidence in it. Donald Trump was the first post-World War II President to try to reduce the volume of international trade, principally by imposing tariff barriers on steel, aluminum, […]
Canada is seeking public comment as it considers collecting and publishing country-specific information about where steel imports are melted and poured under the nation’s Steel Import Monitoring Program. Mary Ng, Minister of International Trade, Export Promotion, Small Business and Economic Development announced the public consultations. Monitoring the country where a steel import was originally melted and […]
Steel prices have peaked and are trending downward – and fast, according to the latest SMU survey results and comments from market participants. The consensus: the war in Ukraine reset the steel market to roughly where it was on Jan. 1. And now the market is trending downward at least as fast as it was in January […]
The US Department of Commerce has made affirmative preliminary determinations in the trade case investigating the dumping of OCTG by Argentina, Mexico, and Russia. High dumping margins were set for most producers and exporters from the three countries, which could slow down OCTG imports further in an already undersupplied market. Critical circumstances were found to […]
Foreign steel imports continue to hold a competitive price advantage over domestic steel, albeit at a slightly lesser potential discount this week compared to last. According to SMU’s latest foreign versus domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) price comparison, select foreign HRC prices range from $92-345 per ton ($4.6-$17.25 per cwt) cheaper than domestic prices, after taking […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active […]
Imports of less expensive sheet and plate products continue to arrive at US ports, and at a faster pace in March. Following lighter volumes in February, overall flat product imports accelerated in March and took a larger share of the domestic steel market, according to Commerce Department data. Imports’ share of US sheet and plate markets […]
Total mill shipments of steel products recovered in March following repeated declines at the start the year. March’s mill shipments totaled 8.342 million tons, a 9% increase from February’s 7.655 million tons. Apparent supply also surged in March, up 12.9% versus the prior month, and expanding for the first time in three months. This analysis is based […]
At the request of the House and Senate Committees on Appropriations, the US International Trade Commission has begun an investigation into the economic impact of the Section 232 and 301 tariffs on US industry. The Commission is asking for detailed information on US trade, production, and prices in the industries that have been most affected […]
We’ve gotten so used to thinking about issues as Democrat vs. Republican, us versus them, that it’s gotten hard for us to make progress even on issues that we generally agree on – like lowering carbon emissions. Renewable energy, and trade policy around renewables, are examples of an all-too-common problem facing the country: Interest groups […]
Final US Department of Commerce data shows that steel imports in March rebounded 32% month-over-month to 3.09 million net tons, a 2+ year high. But April import licenses through May 4 are currently at 2.58 million tons, down 17% from March. (That said, April is still up 10% compared to February.) Final finished steel imports were 2.52 […]
The US steel market continues to revert to where it was before the outbreak of war in Ukraine. SMU’s prices for sheet products are lower. Prices abroad are too. The latest bit of evidence: Published mill lead times. Case in point: Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) published updated lead times on Tuesday, May 3. They indicated […]
SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a Director at Cargill Risk Management. Prior […]
Foreign steel imports continue to hold a competitive price advantage over domestic steel, with the spread between the two widening nearly every week since mid-March. According to SMU’s latest foreign versus domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) price comparison, select foreign HRC prices range from $114-375 per ton cheaper than domestic prices, after taking freight costs, trader margins […]
Sheet and plate prices were flat or down modestly again this week. And it has become clearer and clearer that the market has gotten over the initial shock of the war in Ukraine. Mill after mill lined up during earnings calls last month to say that they were no longer sourcing pig iron from Russia […]
The steel market has adapted to the shock of the war in Ukraine – and it’s become clearer with each passing week that a steeper price decline than we have seen to date might be in store. I wrote on Thursday that the headline data from our latest survey indicated the market had peaked. I […]
For the first four months of this year, the US and global economies have endured one shock after another. It’s hard to know what to expect whether you are running a business, regulating an industry, or feeding a family. This past week, the government announced that the US economy shrank in the first quarter at […]
Housing’s share of the economy edged higher at the start of 2022 due in part to a surprise drop in GDP growth. For the first quarter of 2022, overall GDP growth declined at a 1.4% annual rate, driven by increased inventories and a jump in imports, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ analysis […]
The US economy shrank in the first quarter of 2022 with gross domestic production declining at a 1.4% annualized pace. The drop was a sharp reversal from an annual growth rate of 6.9% from October through December, according to the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The initial estimate for Q1 was the […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active […]
Foreign import prices are gaining a greater competitive advantage over domestic steel this week, according to SMU’s latest foreign versus domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) price comparison. Select foreign HRC prices range from $60-351 per ton cheaper than domestic prices, after taking freight costs, trader margins and tariffs into consideration. Recall that the price differentials between […]
Preliminary Census data shows that steel imports in March increased 31% month-over-month to 3.09 million net tons, rising from an 11-month low to a 2+ year high. April import licenses through April 24 are currently at 2.07 million tons, down 33% from March and down 12% compared to February. Preliminary finished steel imports were 2.52 million tons in March, up […]
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. expects record free cash flow this year thanks to fixed-price contracts resetting higher and a more bullish outlook on average selling prices in general. The Cleveland-based steelmaker predicts that average selling prices for the year will be $1,445 per ton ($72.25 per cwt), up $220 per ton from prior guidance of $1,225 per […]
Imports of less expensive sheet and plate products continue to arrive at US ports, but at a slower pace. February marked only the second decrease in overall flat product imports in 10 months, according to Commerce Department data. Imports’ share of the US sheet and plate products markets peaked in December, reaching their highest levels in the […]
The competitive advantage import prices hold over domestic steel has increased this week, according to SMU’s latest foreign versus domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) price comparison. Select foreign HRC prices range from $47-335 per ton cheaper than domestic prices, after taking freight costs, trader margins and tariffs into consideration. Recall that the price differentials between domestic […]
I’m writing this Final Thoughts from our first in-person Steel 101 workshop in more than two years. It’s great to see everyone here in Memphis, Tenn. It turns out everyone has legs and feet. We are not all disembodied heads on Zoom or Teams. It’s also great to see so many people at Steel 101. […]
Flat Rolled = 52 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 44.4 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled US service center flat rolled inventories edged down further in March. Inventories did not fall as much as expected, as attitudes about inventory changed with the reversal of pricing trends. At the end of March, service centers carried […]
Total mill shipments of steel products fell for the second straight month in February to 7.655 million tons, a 6.1% decline from January’s 8.153 million tons. Apparent supply also fell in February, down 12.1% versus the prior month, falling repeatedly and unable to maintain the momentum seen during the final quarter of 2021. This analysis is based […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled As the Russia/Ukraine conflict continues to smolder the upward trend in spot HR prices appears to have stalled this week […]