The total number of Key Market Indicators considered at present is thirty six. The present situation of eleven of the indicators based on historical standards was positive on November 21st the same as on October 31st but there were two changes. We changed the situation of demand for commercial and industrial bank loans from green […]
There is a lot of interest in what direction spot flat rolled prices will move from here. It appears there is a split between some of the domestic steel mills regarding the most recent price announcements made by AK Steel and Severstal NA. We understand that spot prices on hot rolled are hitting a bit […]
Total steel mill product exports in September were 1,022,050 net tons, a 10.93 percent decrease from October tonnage of 1,147,411 NT. September exports are reported to be at their lowest levels since December 2012. Semi-finished exports were reported to be 2,678 NT, down 93.55 percent from August tonnage of 86,065 NT, but this is most […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. The latest release on Thursday reported October results. These statistics are a useful way to evaluate any changes in the competitive position of steel against competing materials. For the purpose of this report, SMU […]
Apparent steel supply for September was 9,043,000 net tons, a 10.38 percent increase compared to the same month one year ago. This is due to an 8 to 9 percent increase in domestic shipments and all imports, and was slightly offset by a decrease in exports, down 3.38 percent. The net trade balance from the […]
Apparent supply is defined as domestic mill shipments to domestic locations plus imports. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce. The three month moving average (3MMA) of the total tonnage of flat rolled sheet and strip supply was 4,469,473 tons per month in the period July through September. This […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) released Final Census Data on steel imports for the month of September. Total imports (all products) were reported to be 2,818,675 net tons which is down slightly from the 2,878,367 net tons received during the month of August. Compared to last September (2012) there were 215,624 more tons received […]
Negotiations on 2014 flat rolled steel contracts are heating up. Sources are advising Steel Market Update that there has been some movement in the negotiation process by the domestic mills which has allowed a number of the mills to close some 2014 business. We are also hearing from multiple sources of a move by buyers […]
In the last issue of SMU, the Final Thoughts article had information from the financial community with a Bloomberg graphic pointing out the difference between U.S. benchmark hot rolled coil prices and those from the rest of the world. The premise being the $190 spread recognized by the financial community was unsustainable. The net result […]
As expected a couple of mills have announced hot rolled coil price increases today, with more expected to follow in the coming days. These hikes have been anticipated by most in the physical market but appear to have caught a few in the paper market off guard as bids quickly entered the market at extremely […]
Vale reported net earnings of $3.5 billion in the third quarter, up 120 percent from the same quarter in 2012. Iron ore production was 85.9 million tonnes, up 17.3 percent from the previous quarter and the second best quarter of production in Vale’s history. Iron ore production for the first nine months of 2013 was […]
This morning’s report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis surprised on the upside with a growth of 0.7 percent from Q2 and 2.82 percent annualized. GDP in Q3 2013 was 1.65 percent higher than in Q3 2012. This data is the first estimate for the third quarter; revisions have often been substantial recently. The following […]
The combination of higher spot prices for flat rolled steel and adjustments to contract negotiations has caused some steel buyers to seek alternatives to their normal domestic source of supply. Steel Market Update is beginning to get confirmations from both manufacturing companies and service centers of larger foreign tonnage purchases being made for 1st and […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce is trying to catch up on the steel import licensing data after being affected by the government shutdown orchestrated by our representatives in Washington, D.C. The US DOC released Preliminary Census Data for September imports late last week. Imports continue to be at a high level although slightly lower than […]
Apparent steel supply for August 2013 was up 1.62 percent compared to the same month one year ago. This is primarily due to higher total steel imports and higher semi-finished steel imports for this year. The net trade surplus from imports versus exports was 1,730,960 net tons in August of this year, up from 1,502,420 […]
Apparent steel supply for August 2013 was up slightly compared to the same month one year ago by 1.62 percent. This is primarily due to higher total imports and higher semi-finished imports for this year. The net trade from imports and exports was a surplus of 1,730,960 net tons in August of this year, up […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty six. The present situation of eleven of the indicators based on historical standards was positive on October 31st and thirteen were negative; […]
It seems to be a foregone conclusion that there will be a flat rolled price increase announcement within the next few working days. Spot prices have remained firm with benchmark hot rolled averaging $665 per ton ($650-$680 range) based on our SMU index. Scrap is forecast to be up by $20 to $40 per gross […]
In my last ditty, I mentioned we were likely headed to the 1775-1800 area on the S&P 500. Well yesterday we reached 1775. However, the Fed statement from their October meeting yesterday had just enough language changes from the September meeting that some felt nervous and got out of some of their positions and the […]
It has now been three consecutive months that the SMU Price Momentum Indicator has been at Neutral. Flat rolled steel prices have broken out of the $640 per ton doldrums with benchmark hot rolled coil haven risen to $665 as of earlier this week. The monthly average for benchmark hot rolled is $651 per ton […]
The 3 month moving average (3MMA) of imports of the combined tonnage of billets, blooms and slabs through September reached the highest level since February last year. We use the 3MMA to avoid getting too wrapped up in a single months numbers which can be a fruitless exercise. On the same basis flat rolled products […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released final August import numbers late last week. August steel imports rose by 368,606 net tons to 2,878,367 net tons due to higher slab, OCTG, cold rolled and hot-dipped galvanized imports. Slab imports were up by 140,252 tons over the prior month to 657,659 tons total. However, this was expected […]
The European Steel Association (Eurofer) says the year-over-year decline in the European Union (EU) steel industry is beginning to lessen and should show positive growth in 2014, according to the Eurofer Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2013-2014. The SWIP (Steel Weighted Industrial Production) Index is expected to be down -1.1 percent in the third quarter […]
The recent strength in the physical market has sent futures prices up over the past month. This week, however, prices have begun to soften as most market participants feel the market has reached a top. Talk of revived imports coming in as well as some domestic mills offering deals a bit below published prices has […]
The combination of higher spot prices and adjustments to contract negotiations has caused some buyers of flat rolled steel to seek alternatives to their normal domestic source of supply. Steel Market Update is beginning to get confirmations from both manufacturing companies and service centers of larger foreign tonnage purchases being made for 1st and early […]
The Chinese economy grew 7.8 percent in the third quarter, compared to 7.5 percent in the second quarter and 7.7 percent in the first quarter. Growth for the first nine months of 2013 was 7.7 percent keeping China on target for a 7.5 percent GDP for the year. According to the China National Bureau of […]
Evraz North America announced Monday it would suspend operations at its steel mill in Claymont, Delaware on December 13th due to “subdued market demand and the high volume of imports.” The Russian-owned mill produces specialized steel plate and has an annual capacity of 500,000 tons but produced only 383,590 tons in 2012 and 189,025 tons […]
The U.S. Treasury defines the debt ceiling or limit as “the total amount of money that the United States government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations, including Social Security and Medicare benefits, military salaries, interest on the national debt, tax refunds, and other payments.” The current debt ceiling is set at […]
Shipping in the Capesize Market is beginning to slow down after a strong September driven by iron ore restocking in China and exports of ore from Brazil. According to the MID-SHIP Report on Oct. 10, average Capesize earnings fell to $33,368 from $42,211 two weeks ago. Time charters averaged $30,000 prompting owners to turnover cargo […]
The following is an email we received from a service center executive regarding the current contract negotiations and their opinion as to how changes can change the mix of contracts to spot orders on with a mill and, price volatility in the marketplace. We have heard the same argument from others within the steel industry […]