Jawad Mian wrote, “The precipitous decline in the price of oil is perhaps one of the most bearish macro developments this year. We believe we are entering a “new oil normal,” where oil prices stay lower for longer. The reason oil prices started sliding in June can be explained by record growth in US production, […]
The European Steel Association (Eurofer) called for tougher anti-dumping and anti-subsidy regulations to level the international trade playing field for the EU. In a statement on Tuesday, Eurofer cites the growing absorption of EU steel demand by foreign imports. Although EU steel demand has grown only moderately in 2014, steel imports rose by 22 percent […]
Peter Wright wrote an article in our last issue about the accuracy of the steel import license data. What Peter was referring to was the license data reported at the conclusion of the month and before the preliminary and final census data are reported. Steel Market Update begins to analyze the data beginning in the […]
Nucor Corporation expects a “moderate” decrease in earnings in the fourth quarter along with a seasonal drop in operating performance. In the company’s fourth quarter earnings guidance, Nucor noted that exceptionally high import levels have put pressure on steel production and margins. A larger than expected decrease in outside shipments is expected in the fourth […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 106.66 for November an increase of 1.26 percent from October. The three month moving average (3MMA) was 105.75 which was the highest value ever and the sixth straight month where the growth of the 3MMA exceeded […]
The currency markets continue to be dominated by a strengthening dollar and a weakening of third world currencies in particular. Hyun Song Shin, who chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, gives a lot of thought to the implications of the current situation. In recent presentations at the Brookings Institution, Mr. Shin […]
There has been a lot of information floating about the marketplace regarding the Chinese steel rebates and especially those represented as special alloy through the addition of boron to the steel. We wrote about this subject in early November and we remind our readers to go back and review the article entitled: Chinese Boron Added […]
All of the flat rolled steel price indices followed by Steel Market Update moved lower this past week. Based on performance and their ability to keep up with the markets, the three key indices are SMU, CRU and Platts which reported benchmark hot rolled price averages as $615, $614 and $615 per ton, respectively. SteelBenchmarker […]
Steel exports have declined by 6.5 percent this year while steel imports have climbed nearly 37 percent, notes the American Institute for International Steel in their Statement on October 2014 Steel Exports published below. Falls Church, VA. December 12, 2014. Steel exports dipped from September to October and fell nearly 11 percent from a year […]
The following article is by Peter Wright for our Premium level members. We decided to share the article with all of our readers this evening as a way of providing an example of Premium level content and analysis to our Executive readers. Following the post-recession recovery, shipments of hot band from US mills to domestic […]
Today’s hot rolled, ferrous scrap and iron ore futures article comes to us from Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and the instructor for Steel Market Update’s Managing Price Risk I and Managing Price Risk II workshops. Along with HRC, iron ore and BUS trading. Andre also discusses the S&P 500, copper and crude […]
Apparent steel supply for October 2014 was 10,954,832 net tons, the highest monthly figure we have seen since the beginning of the Great Recession. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic shipments and finished US imports and subtracting total US exports. October supply represents a 1,509,671 ton or 16.0 percent increase compared to the […]
The Mexico Economy Secretariat announced an extension of the investigation of cold rolled coil from China. “There are enough elements to preliminary support that in the investigated period the imports of the subjected product were done under price discrimination and generated a harm threat to the national production,” said the secretariat on Monday. The products […]
The supply of sheet products had strong positive growth in the 3 months period August through October year over year being up by 12.4 percent and led by hot band which was up by 16.1 percent (Table 1). The sources of this analysis are the Commerce Department trade statistics and AISI steel shipment data. These […]
Total October steel imports were recently finalized by the US Department of Commerce at 4,441,271 net tons (4,029,058 metric tons), surpassing the previous high of 4,417,811 tons in August 1998. October had been on pace to be a high tonnage month, but previous preliminary data figures were a few thousand tons shy of breaking the […]
Barge availability is still tight in the U.S. due to large cargo volumes of southbound grain, and northbound volumes of steel and salt, according to the Dec 4 MID-SHIP report. The US Department of Agriculture reports rates for southbound grain have dropped to 426 percent of tariff after reaching 800 percent or more in November. […]
Based on preliminary Chinese data, total steel exports from China were 9.7 million metric tons (10.7 million net tons) for the month of November, a 14 percent increase from the previous month and a 94 percent increase from November 2013 tonnage. This brings total 2014 exports to 83.6 million tons (92.2 million net tons). To […]
In a complicated appeals decision on Monday, the World Trade Organization reversed the majority of a July ruling against India that said US duties had wrongly penalized India for subsidizing steel imports of pipe produced by Tata Steel. The decision, however, also admonished the US for breaking Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (SCM) rules and called […]
I always learn new things every time I attend an industry related conference. I find being exposed to industry experts, active steel buyers in one location (with very few to no suppliers around), business owners who feel comfortable in their surroundings, and a few cocktails thrown into the mix, makes for interesting times. I highly […]
Ports around the U.S. report steel shipments continue to be strong but congestion at the terminals remains a problem. In the Port of New Orleans iron and steel imports totaled 2.2 million tons in the first eight months of this year—up 84.8 percent from the same period in 2013. “We don’t have November numbers as […]
ArcelorMittal has idled the Indiana Harbor West No. 2 galvanizing line and plans to shut down the electric arc furnace at Indiana Harbor Long Carbon. Employees were told that the No 1 aluminizing line at ArcelorMittal Indiana Harbor West is also under consideration for shutdown as the company shifts production to AM/NS Calvert in Alabama. […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 321,000 jobs were added in November, October and September were revised up by a total of 44,000. The three month moving average (3MMA) of gains was the highest since May 2010 at 278,000. This job recovery is stronger than was the case in […]
Steel buyers in the November ISM Steel Buyers Survey are expecting general economic activity and sales and production to remain at current levels for the next six months. Eighty percent of buyers said general economic activity will remain the same while 90 percent expect the trend for sales and production in their industry to be […]
Part of my talk at the 2014 HARDI conference was regarding galvanized imports which reached 325,000 net tons in October and appear will be approximately 300,000 tons when the November Census Data numbers are released later this month. To put this into perspective, at this point last year the U.S. received 150,000 net tons and […]
One of the biggest issues that has been holding the domestic steel mill lead times (and prices) in check during calendar year 2014 is the amount of foreign steel coming into the United States. SMU recently reported the U.S. received 4.4 million net tons of imports during the month of October and license data is […]
The following article on the hot rolled futures market comes to SMU from contributing writer Bradley Clark, Director of Steel Trading for Kataman Metals. Hot rolled coil futures have been quite inactive the past week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. As activity picks back up, it appears the next move will be lower. The forward […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. The Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index which was suspended earlier this year was expected to be re-instituted this month but […]
It has now been five weeks (October 28th) since AK Steel became the first domestic steel mill to announce a price increase on flat rolled steel. The relatively modest $20 per ton move was, in many steel buyers’ opinions, meant to stem the decline in steel prices. At that point in time benchmark hot rolled […]
Flat rolled steel prices began slipping once again as our benchmark hot rolled average broke through the $630 mark for the first time since the middle of March. The new average is now at the lowest level for the calendar year (tied with mid-March) and is poised to set a new low point for the […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released license data through today, December 2, 2015. Based on the latest data, there were 3,938,330 net tons of steel import license requests for the month of November. This does not mean that the U.S. actually received 3.9 million tons of steel imports during the month of November, but it […]