The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 252,000 jobs were added in December, November and October were revised up by a total of 50,000. The three month moving average (3MMA) of gains in December was second only to November as the highest since May 2010 at 289,000. This job recovery […]
As we reported last week, the $30 per ton ferrous scrap price increases failed to materialize once January negotiations began in earnest. A couple lucky deals were made up $20-$30 just as December ended and January began. However, those deals dried up almost as fast as the ink dried on the paper. We are hearing […]
Steel Market Update received an email late last week that spoke to the problems the domestic steel mills are facing right now: a weak global steel market, strong dollar, all U.S. production facilities up and running, growing steel inventories, low in-put costs and a collapse in demand from the energy sector. We thought our readers […]
Low oil prices and the proliferation of pipe and tube imports at below market prices are causing manufacturers to idle mills and lay off workers. The latest round of layoffs comes from Tenaris which announced it will lay off 500 employees in Conroe, Texas and in Blytheville, Arkansas. “The energy industry’s present circumstances have driven […]
Apparent steel supply for the month of November 2014 is 9,637,349 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports and subtracting total US steel exports. November supply represents a 1,044,666 ton or 12.2 percent increase compared to the same month one year ago. This is primarily […]
Ferrous scrap prices were forecast to be up $30 per gross ton as little as one week ago. According to one of our East Coast dealers there were some early sales at up $20 to $30 to those steel mills who needed to buy immediately. However, those deals were few and far between and the […]
Steel buyers seem to be unanimous in their opinion of the current steel environment which I heard countless times today termed as “crazy.” Hot rolled buyers are telling SMU that the offers are starting in the $560-$580 range with the caveat “let’s talk” should the buyer actually have some decent tonnage to place. We have […]
Today we are producing two foreign steel import reports. This one is our normal report and we have a second one following which will look at imports from a different view point. The second report also addresses both long and flat rolled products and is normally available only to our Premium level members. The U.S. […]
This is our second article about foreign steel imports where we look deeper into imports from a three month moving average perspective. We also look at the complete picture by analyzing both long and flat rolled steel products. License data for December was updated on January 6th through the Steel Import Monitoring System of the […]
US Steel announced Monday it will idle its US Steel Tubular Operations in Lorain, Ohio. In a letter to employees, US Steel said the layoffs are a “result of a decline in tubular market conditions, which is impacting demand for the plant’s products.” Layoffs affecting 614 employees will begin around March 8 and continue through […]
The value of the U.S. dollar is having a major impact on commodity, scrap and steel pricing. The strengthening of the dollar is something that Steel Market Update is watching very closely. We are therefor going to increase the number of times we provide currency updates from once per month to every three weeks (and […]
We provided full year projected steel imports in tonight’s issue. Please be aware: 1) the November numbers are Preliminary Census and should be very close to accurate, 2) the December numbers are based on license data and there can be fluctuations in the Census and license data numbers. November is a good example. November license […]
The following is an overview of some of the key steel data collected by Steel Market Update during the month of December 2014. This is separate from our Key Market Indicators which was produced for our Premium level subscribers (although shared with all of our readers on Friday of this past week). Steel Market Update […]
Everyone wants to know how the steel industry did from our perspective over the calendar year 2014. We decided to take a look at the year using quarterly averages as a way of smoothing out the data and giving us a clearer picture of key data and commodity and steel pricing trends. As you can […]
After Steel Market Update (SMU) produced our 11 month analysis of flat rolled steel imports into the United States, we received a number of comments about reality versus the perception behind the numbers. Calendar year 2014 should go down in history as the second largest number of foreign steel tonnage shipped to the U.S. by […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce updated the December 2014 steel import license data. As suspected the volume of requests dropped dramatically from the 4.0 million net ton pace we were seeing earlier in the month to 3.0+ million tons as of December 30th. December total steel imports (alloy and carbon) should be approximately 500,000 tons […]
As we move into the month of January all eyes will be on the December steel import data which will determine if 2014 goes down in history as the largest or second largest year for total steel imports in U.S. history. Prior to 2014 the record for the year with the most foreign steel imports […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the end of this piece. Index shows economic growth picked up […]
South Korea has filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) over the U.S. decision to impose countervailing and antidumping on tariffs on steel pipe from South Korea. In 2013, South Korea exported 894,300 tons of OCTG products to the U.S., which U.S. steelmakers said were sold in the U.S. at artificially low prices. […]
The good news for the consumer is gasoline prices are closing in on $2.00 per gallon in many areas of the country. The bad news for the steel industry is the drop in oil prices means a slowdown in new drilling, one of the major users of hot rolled coil. The good news for buyers […]
The article below is normally reserved for our Premium level members, but due to our holiday publishing schedule, we decided to share it with all of our readers. If you are interested in receiving our Premium product you may contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com or (800) 432 3475. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the […]
Russia says removing the U.S. suspension agreement on flat rolled steel from Russia is “inconsistent with WTO rules.” The fifteen year old suspension that protected Russian manufacturers from antidumping duties on hot-rolled, flat rolled and carbon quality steel was lifted on Dec. 19. Russian steel manufacturers are now subject to antidumping duties ranging from 74 […]
We received this poem from one of our manufacturing customers with a sense of humor. Enjoy and Happy Holidays to each and every one of you. T’was just 2 day’s,Before Christmas, When all through the market,The mills are so quiet,Will they hit my target? Their stocks keep dropping,The market’s a bear,The mills keep crying.“Imports aren’t […]
Jawad Mian wrote, “The precipitous decline in the price of oil is perhaps one of the most bearish macro developments this year. We believe we are entering a “new oil normal,” where oil prices stay lower for longer. The reason oil prices started sliding in June can be explained by record growth in US production, […]
The European Steel Association (Eurofer) called for tougher anti-dumping and anti-subsidy regulations to level the international trade playing field for the EU. In a statement on Tuesday, Eurofer cites the growing absorption of EU steel demand by foreign imports. Although EU steel demand has grown only moderately in 2014, steel imports rose by 22 percent […]
Peter Wright wrote an article in our last issue about the accuracy of the steel import license data. What Peter was referring to was the license data reported at the conclusion of the month and before the preliminary and final census data are reported. Steel Market Update begins to analyze the data beginning in the […]
Nucor Corporation expects a “moderate” decrease in earnings in the fourth quarter along with a seasonal drop in operating performance. In the company’s fourth quarter earnings guidance, Nucor noted that exceptionally high import levels have put pressure on steel production and margins. A larger than expected decrease in outside shipments is expected in the fourth […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 106.66 for November an increase of 1.26 percent from October. The three month moving average (3MMA) was 105.75 which was the highest value ever and the sixth straight month where the growth of the 3MMA exceeded […]
The currency markets continue to be dominated by a strengthening dollar and a weakening of third world currencies in particular. Hyun Song Shin, who chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, gives a lot of thought to the implications of the current situation. In recent presentations at the Brookings Institution, Mr. Shin […]