I spent three days in Chicago this past week, enjoying the snow, wind and cold temperatures. Upon my return one of my first directives was for Sandy Williams of our staff to research the ice cover on the Great Lakes as the opening of the Soo Locks is only three weeks away. We will let […]
Virtually all flat rolled steel products indexed by the steel indices followed by Steel Market Update saw steel pricing decline by double digits and, in most cases, the erosion in pricing on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and coated was at least $20 per ton ($1.00/cwt). First an observation, as we watch the weekly price […]
We made a mistake in our most recent issue when we referenced $440 as being the low for hot rolled back in June 2009. That was actually the low for the galvanized base price (noted in the HARDI article in that same issue). The low for hot rolled in June 2009 was $380 per ton […]
The spread between world hot rolled export pricing and that of the domestic average here in the United States remains reasonable based on our analysis of steel pricing data from this week. As the spread narrows, the competitiveness of imported steel into the United States is reduced. Over time, if the trend continues, the domestic […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released the latest steel import licensing data for February as well as the Preliminary Census Data for the month of January 2015. January imports are being reported as being 4,250,041 net tons (3.9 million metric tons). This is up 32.6 percent compared to one year ago. Hot rolled imports, even […]
Tenaris announced it will temporarily suspend operations at its welded tubes mill in Conroe, Texas. The shutdown will result in the layoff of approximately 230 employees, effective April 2015. “Record levels of unfairly traded imports of OCTG (oil country tubular goods) from South Korea and the sharp decline in the price of oil and consequential […]
Once a month, HARDI sponsors a galvanized steel conference call with the wholesalers who sell sheet and coil to the HVAC mechanical contractors. Steel Market Update (SMU) has participated in these informative discussions for a number of years and they are very useful in our understanding of the ebb and flow of both pricing and […]
The vehicle sales year had a good start in January with 16.7 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. Light trucks are benefiting from lower gas prices and reached 55 percent of light vehicle sales, the highest since 2014. This is good for the US assembly plants because the US light truck production is […]
Twice per month Steel Market Update conducts our flat rolled steel market analysis. We invite slightly more than 600 qualified companies to participate in our questionnaire which consist of questions about demand, inventories, foreign imports, pricing, sentiment, service center pricing and more. We have been compiling information since late 2008 (SMU began as an official […]
Steel Market Update last Apparent Excess/Deficit forecast for flat rolled steel shipments and inventories called for shipments in January to exceed 2014 levels by 2 percent. Total flat rolled shipments for the month of January 2015 were projected by us to be 2,415,000 tons. In actuality, shipment levels were 1.6 percent higher than January 2014 […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released the latest import licensing data for the license requests received through the 18th of February. Steel Market Update (SMU) then compares the daily tonnage rate against the previous four months and the daily license rate being reported during the 3rd week of that particular month. Based on that analysis, […]
Those of us near the Great Lakes (presently experiencing minus degree temperatures and seemingly endless snow) are beginning to wonder if winter 2015 is a repeat of 2014. Last year the Great Lakes had unprecedented ice coverage. The Great Lakes shipping season was delayed into April with cargo shipments plummeting by nearly 7 million tons […]
Reliance Steel & Aluminum fourth quarter consolidated sales rose 11.7 percent year over year to $2.58 billion. Tons sold increased 4.4 percent year over year to 1,469,300 tons. Carbon steel sales of $1.4 billion fell 5.9 percent sequentially with tons sold down 4.7 percent to 1,999,300 tons. The average selling price per ton of steel […]
I was relieved to see the Sentiment 3MMA trend break after dropping for almost five straight months (since mid-September). I am not quite yet ready to say we have vanquished any growing pessimism within the flat rolled steel industry. But, breaking the streak was the first step. I have a number of concerns. The continuation […]
“It’s not 2008 or 2009.” We heard this from trading companies, steel service centers and mills during the Port of Tampa Steel Conference this past week. This week we are hearing similar comments as we make our rounds talking to those active in the industry. Prices have been collapsing but there does not appear to […]
The monthly value of the Federal Reserve Broad Index value of the US $ against our major trading partners has continued to strengthen and in January reached 92.44 after breaking 90 in December for the first time since July 2009. The monthly BI is a “Real” inflation adjusted index. The Fed also reports a daily […]
Phillip Bell, President of the Steel Manufacturers Association (steel mills) told those assembled at the 26th annual Port of Tampa Steel Conference, “There is a growing consensus that something just isn’t right.” What he was referring to was the domestic steel mills running at 75 percent capacity utilization rates and the industry still suffering due […]
Keith Busse, former CEO of Steel Dynamics (SDI) told those assembled at the Port of Tampa Steel Conference held this past week in Tampa, Florida that “…It was bound to happen.” What he was referring to was the steel community being impacted by the strong dollar, surging imports and a world economy which he described […]
During the ArcelorMittal earnings conference call which was conducted this past Friday, Lakshmi Mittal, CEO of AM told the analysts on the call, “At ArcelorMittal, we remain confident, that the steel will remain the material of choice for automotive. We are the leader in providing light weighting products and solutions for our automotive customer and […]
Dry cargo rates continue to plummet as the Baltic Dry Cargo index dropped to record lows last week. The index fell to 553 on Wednesday and continued to slide downward to end the week at 530 points. MID-SHIP says shipowners and operators are suffering major revenue losses, with one owner/operator declaring bankruptcy last week. Charterers […]
ArcelorMittal narrowed its net loss to $1.1 billion in FY 2014 and cut its debt to $15.8 billion, the lowest level since the company was formed in 2006. Cash flow from operations in 2014 totaled $3.9 billion. Consolidated steel shipments for 2014 were up 3 percent year over year to 85.1 million tonnes. Fourth quarter […]
On Monday we will begin our mid-February flat rolled steel market analysis. The market has seen prices dropping over the past few weeks at a rate not seen for a number of years. Our survey will help us not only understand where price offers/orders are today but when we think the bottom will be reached. […]
The following article on the futures market was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk, LLC and our instructor for Managing Price Risk I and II workshops. Financial Markets: Too bad we’re not all money managers as life would be pretty easy – just keep your customer long the market, sit back, and enjoy […]
Over the past two days Steel Market Update (SMU) has been attending the 26th annual Port of Tampa Steel Conference in Tampa, Florida. The Port of Tampa sits on 5,000 acres and is the closest U.S. port to the Panama Canal. Early in we got a taste of the rebirth of the downtown construction market […]
The spread between world hot rolled export pricing and that of the domestic average here in the United States is getting smaller based on our analysis of steel pricing data from this week. As the spread shrinks, the competitiveness of imported steel into the United States is reduced. Over time, if the trend continues, the […]
Traders at the Port of Tampa Steel Conference told me hot rolled offers at in the $460 to $480 per ton range with little to no activity. It is not clear yet if the import offers will move lower from the $460 to $480 level. One trader told me that they were not taking any […]
Flat rolled steel buyers are resigned to a steel price spot market which takes benchmark hot rolled prices below the $500 per ton ($25.00/cwt) level. One of the large hot rolled service centers this morning told Steel Market Update that they were having a difficult time keeping up with the pace of the falling numbers. […]
Apparent steel supply for the month of December 2014 was 10,020,704 net tons, the sixth month in 2014 to be above the 10 million ton mark. Steel Market Update calculates our apparent steel supply figure by combining total domestic steel shipments with finished US steel imports and subtracting total US steel exports. December supply represents […]
In the twelve months of 2014, ferrous scrap exports totaled 15,308,000 tonnes (metric tons), down by 17.1 percent from the same period in 2013. In the single month of December scrap exports were 1,056,570 tonnes, down 21.5 percent from November. Figure 1 shows that the three month moving average (3MMA) has been declining slightly for […]
Last month we began to report on domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market in one single report to be able to compare side by side demand and the degree to which imports have absorbed that demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by […]