The following article is usually available to our Premium level members only. This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market in one single report to enable a side by side comparison and the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department […]
Over the past month we have begun to ask a new question of those responding to our flat rolled steel questionnaire. With the excessive inventories at service centers, and potentially some end users, created (in part) by high levels of imports, SMU wanted to know when we might see imports start to taper off. This […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce (US DOC) released final foreign steel import census data late last week, showing final January tonnage at 4.39 million net tons (3.99 million metric tons). This is a 20.8 percent increase over December 2014 imports and 37.1 percent higher than January 2014 levels. Total January imports were the highest seen […]
SMU had the opportunity to attend the Association of Steel Distributors (ASD) meeting in Pittsburgh on March 5. The meeting was held at the delightfully decorated Hotel Monaco in downtown Pittsburgh. ASD president Brian Robbins welcomed the younger than usual attendees to the ASD meeting and invited them to become part of the Future Leaders […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment reported that 295,000 jobs were added in February, the January result was revised down by 18,000. The three month moving average, (3MMA) of gains through February was 288,000. This job recovery is now seen to be much stronger than was the case in the mid-2000s […]
Licensed data for February was updated on March 3rd through the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department. Steel Market Update publishes several import reports ranging from this very early look using licensed data to the very detailed analysis of final volumes by district of entry and source nation which is published in […]
The Russians are coming! The Russians are coming! Well, at least that is what the rest of the world is seeing when it comes to steel. The Russian steel mills have become the benefactors of the drop in the value of the Russian currency (the ruble). Steel Market Update has learned the Russian ruble lost […]
Every week the US Department of Commerce (US DOC) releases steel import license data for those months that have not had Preliminary Census or Final Census data announced. The latest license data was released this afternoon covering the month of February through today. Since we are so early into the month of March SIMA did […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their February report on March 2nd. An explanation of this data set is given at the end of this piece. After the October surprise on the upside, the index slid back to 55.1 in December to 53.5 in January and to 52.9 in February. The three month moving average […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The monthly value of the Federal Reserve Broad Index value of the US $ against our major trading partners has continued to strengthen and in January reached 92.44 after breaking 90 in December for the first time since July 2009. The monthly BI is a “Real” inflation adjusted index. The Fed also reports a daily […]
I spent three days in Chicago this past week, enjoying the snow, wind and cold temperatures. Upon my return one of my first directives was for Sandy Williams of our staff to research the ice cover on the Great Lakes as the opening of the Soo Locks is only three weeks away. We will let […]
Virtually all flat rolled steel products indexed by the steel indices followed by Steel Market Update saw steel pricing decline by double digits and, in most cases, the erosion in pricing on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and coated was at least $20 per ton ($1.00/cwt). First an observation, as we watch the weekly price […]
We made a mistake in our most recent issue when we referenced $440 as being the low for hot rolled back in June 2009. That was actually the low for the galvanized base price (noted in the HARDI article in that same issue). The low for hot rolled in June 2009 was $380 per ton […]
The spread between world hot rolled export pricing and that of the domestic average here in the United States remains reasonable based on our analysis of steel pricing data from this week. As the spread narrows, the competitiveness of imported steel into the United States is reduced. Over time, if the trend continues, the domestic […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released the latest steel import licensing data for February as well as the Preliminary Census Data for the month of January 2015. January imports are being reported as being 4,250,041 net tons (3.9 million metric tons). This is up 32.6 percent compared to one year ago. Hot rolled imports, even […]
Tenaris announced it will temporarily suspend operations at its welded tubes mill in Conroe, Texas. The shutdown will result in the layoff of approximately 230 employees, effective April 2015. “Record levels of unfairly traded imports of OCTG (oil country tubular goods) from South Korea and the sharp decline in the price of oil and consequential […]
Once a month, HARDI sponsors a galvanized steel conference call with the wholesalers who sell sheet and coil to the HVAC mechanical contractors. Steel Market Update (SMU) has participated in these informative discussions for a number of years and they are very useful in our understanding of the ebb and flow of both pricing and […]
The vehicle sales year had a good start in January with 16.7 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. Light trucks are benefiting from lower gas prices and reached 55 percent of light vehicle sales, the highest since 2014. This is good for the US assembly plants because the US light truck production is […]
Twice per month Steel Market Update conducts our flat rolled steel market analysis. We invite slightly more than 600 qualified companies to participate in our questionnaire which consist of questions about demand, inventories, foreign imports, pricing, sentiment, service center pricing and more. We have been compiling information since late 2008 (SMU began as an official […]
Steel Market Update last Apparent Excess/Deficit forecast for flat rolled steel shipments and inventories called for shipments in January to exceed 2014 levels by 2 percent. Total flat rolled shipments for the month of January 2015 were projected by us to be 2,415,000 tons. In actuality, shipment levels were 1.6 percent higher than January 2014 […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released the latest import licensing data for the license requests received through the 18th of February. Steel Market Update (SMU) then compares the daily tonnage rate against the previous four months and the daily license rate being reported during the 3rd week of that particular month. Based on that analysis, […]
Those of us near the Great Lakes (presently experiencing minus degree temperatures and seemingly endless snow) are beginning to wonder if winter 2015 is a repeat of 2014. Last year the Great Lakes had unprecedented ice coverage. The Great Lakes shipping season was delayed into April with cargo shipments plummeting by nearly 7 million tons […]
Reliance Steel & Aluminum fourth quarter consolidated sales rose 11.7 percent year over year to $2.58 billion. Tons sold increased 4.4 percent year over year to 1,469,300 tons. Carbon steel sales of $1.4 billion fell 5.9 percent sequentially with tons sold down 4.7 percent to 1,999,300 tons. The average selling price per ton of steel […]
I was relieved to see the Sentiment 3MMA trend break after dropping for almost five straight months (since mid-September). I am not quite yet ready to say we have vanquished any growing pessimism within the flat rolled steel industry. But, breaking the streak was the first step. I have a number of concerns. The continuation […]
“It’s not 2008 or 2009.” We heard this from trading companies, steel service centers and mills during the Port of Tampa Steel Conference this past week. This week we are hearing similar comments as we make our rounds talking to those active in the industry. Prices have been collapsing but there does not appear to […]
The monthly value of the Federal Reserve Broad Index value of the US $ against our major trading partners has continued to strengthen and in January reached 92.44 after breaking 90 in December for the first time since July 2009. The monthly BI is a “Real” inflation adjusted index. The Fed also reports a daily […]
Phillip Bell, President of the Steel Manufacturers Association (steel mills) told those assembled at the 26th annual Port of Tampa Steel Conference, “There is a growing consensus that something just isn’t right.” What he was referring to was the domestic steel mills running at 75 percent capacity utilization rates and the industry still suffering due […]
Keith Busse, former CEO of Steel Dynamics (SDI) told those assembled at the Port of Tampa Steel Conference held this past week in Tampa, Florida that “…It was bound to happen.” What he was referring to was the steel community being impacted by the strong dollar, surging imports and a world economy which he described […]
During the ArcelorMittal earnings conference call which was conducted this past Friday, Lakshmi Mittal, CEO of AM told the analysts on the call, “At ArcelorMittal, we remain confident, that the steel will remain the material of choice for automotive. We are the leader in providing light weighting products and solutions for our automotive customer and […]