Each month the American Institute for International Steel (AIIS) provides an analysis of steel imports to the U.S. The following January 18 release describes imports for November. Falls Church, VA. January 18, 2016. Steel imports plunged once again in November, dipping to a level more than one-third less than a year earlier. The United States […]
There are zombie factories in China. No, they are not making zombies but the factories themselves are the equivalent of the walking dead–steel mills hanging on by a thread, not making money, reducing workforces, but clinging to life when they are all but dead. The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) is painting a grim […]
According to the latest data released from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute, apparent steel supply for the month of November 2015 was 7,710,331 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports and subtracting total US steel exports. Foreign steel […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
Net imports equals imports minus exports. We regard this as an important look at the overall trade picture and its effect on demand at the mill level. Figure 1 shows that net sheet product imports on a three month moving average (3MMA) basis at 546,093 tons in November continue to be more than double that […]
The following article is written by Spencer Johnson of FC Stone LLC. With six years of experience, Spencer provides his customers strategic and tactical advice on protecting themselves against commodity price volatility in the steel markets. Spencer rotates weekly futures articles with Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC. Spencer can be reached at spencer.johnson@intlfcstone.com. In […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce updated January 2016 foreign steel import license data earlier this week. For a number of months Steel Market Update has been comparing the data to see how the current month’s numbers compare to prior months in an effort to get a better handle on the trend. January’s number may be […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce issued their Preliminary Determination on countervailing duties (CVD) of hot rolled coil from Brazil, Turkey and South Korea. Affirmative results were found against Brazil with CSN and Usiminas both receiving subsidy rates of 7.42 percent. All other Brazilian mills not named also received 7.42 percent subsidy rates. Turkey and South […]
We thought our readers might find it interesting to review the past four years worth of imports from the three countries mentioned in the countervailing (CVD) duty preliminary determination just released by the U.S. Department of Commerce. The numbers in the table below are net tons and are annualized (yes, Brazil only shipped 4,467 tons […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced the final census data for foreign steel imports for the month of November. November imports were 2,453,593 net tons (not metric tons as we have already made the conversion from the US DOC charts) which is significantly below both the 3 month and 12 month moving averages (see table […]
SMU has developed a series of reports that cover hot rolled, cold rolled, HDG, other metallic coated, coiled plate and semi-finished slabs. These reports are a detailed drill down into tons by source country and port of entry which will enable you to determine exactly what is going on in your area for whichever product […]
Steel Market Update received the following press release from the US Department of Commerce International Trade Administration regarding the release of the preliminary determination for the hot rolled countervailing duty portion of the hot rolled trade case: On January 11, 2016, the Department of Commerce is scheduled to announce its preliminary determinations in the CVD […]
The Canadian International Trade Tribune determined on Jan. 6 that the dumping of hot-rolled carbon steel plate and high-strength low-alloy steel plate originating in or exported from India and Russia have not caused injury and are not threatening to cause injury to the domestic industry. CITT also found no injury from the subsidizing of those […]
In the first eleven months of 2015 bulk scrap exports were 11,762,000 tonnes for an annual rate of 12,831,000 tonnes, down by 17.5 percent from the first eleven months of 2014. The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages (3MMA) for 2015 and on the annual monthly average for previous […]
Steelworkers in Lorain, Ohio are having a dismal start to 2016. In addition to this week’s announcement by Republic Steel that it would idle operations at its rolling mill, US Steel confirmed layoffs are coming to Lorain Tubular. A union official reports 261 workers at US Steel’s Lorain Tubular Operations will be laid off beginning […]
Licensed data for December was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on January 5th. At SMU we perform a detailed analysis of this data, an explanation of our methodology is given at the end of this write up. Total rolled product licensed imports in the single month of December […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their December report on January 4th 2016 with a value of 48.6 which is the lowest since June 2009. An explanation of the ISM index is given at the end of this piece. After seven straight months of decline the three month moving average (3MMA) of the index had […]
Manufacturing ended the year with general global slowing as production and new orders declined. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI registered 50.9 in December, down from 51.2 in November. The global PMI average for 2015 failed to surpass the average reading for the prior two years. PMI indices for China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. We have made a change to our analysis this month by removing the capacity utilization of both the flat rolled […]
The flat rolled steel price roller coaster did not do the steel mills or companies holding inventory any favors this past year. We saw hot rolled prices drop from just below $650 per net ton (average) at the beginning of the year to the low point of $360 per ton achieved the week of December […]
Last year was a major year for labor contracts that affected the steel industry. After months of slowdowns and contentious negotiations on the West Coast in 2014, the PMA/ILWU finally ratified a contract in May of 2015. The labor dispute caused delay of steel shipments and other products, congestion on the docks, and shifted some […]
The first thing that jumps out at you when taking a look at the December steel and economic data is the change in the direction flat rolled steel prices took early in the month as the domestic steel mills raised prices for the first time since the Spring 2015 (which resulted in a dead cat […]
The US Department of Commerce released the latest license data regarding foreign steel imports into the United States for the month of December 2015. Based on licenses data December is trending toward the low 2 million net tons to as much as 2.6 million net tons. However, we have noticed that the trend recently has […]
Based on the Preliminary License Data recently released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, foreign steel imports for the month of November were 2,350,942 net tons. This is the lowest total seen for any month since December 2011 when 2,064,143 net tons were reported. November 2015 imports were 1,343,207 tons less than November 2014 when […]
US Steel Canada is doing better than expected despite still losing money. According to the 18th Monitor’s report for the CCAA protected company, November’s operation loss was $5.8 million, about half the forecast of $11 million. Operational loss year to date (as of November 30) was $109.4 million. Net loss for the eleven months was […]
On December 16th the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate for the first time in almost a decade. In the United States, the federal funds rate is “the interest rate” at which depository institutions (banks and credit unions) actively trade balances held at the Federal Reserve, called federal funds, with each other, usually overnight, […]
Late this afternoon the US Department of Commerce released their Preliminary Determination regarding antidumping of corrosion resistant steels from China, India, Taiwan, Korea and Italy. China was smacked the hardest and received margins of 255.80 percent while India (6.64-6.92%), Korea (2.99-3.51%) and Italy (0.0-3.11%) were slapped on the wrists. Taiwan received no antidumping margin what-so-ever. […]
Steel Market Update is seeing prices as being modestly higher than they were both two weeks ago as well as last week. On average, cold rolled and coated steels have the most strength with lead times on many of these products having extended into February (and some coated into March) at most of the mills […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released import license data through the 22nd of December. The data continues to show the trend to be similar to that of November when approximately 2.7 million net tons of foreign steel were exported to the United States. In the graphic below we have highlighted hot rolled (trending lower), cold […]
US Steel Corp announced it will postpone construction of the electric arc furnace at its Fairfield Works operation in Alabama due to “continued challenging market conditions in both the oil and gas and steel industries.” The $230 million EAF was scheduled for completion next year, giving US Steel the flexibility of its first EAF. The […]