On December 16th the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate for the first time in almost a decade and as we write the FOMC is meeting once again and will make another announcement tomorrow regarding any change to the rate. None is expected though it is anticipated that four hikes could occur in 2016. […]
For the week ending January 23, 2016, the American Iron & Steel Institute (AISI) estimated the U.S. steel industry produced 1,670,000 net tons of raw steel, a 1.1 percent increase over the previous week but a 7.6 percent decrease over the same week one year ago. The estimated capacity utilization rate is 69.8 percent, up […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of the direction of steel demand with a six to nine month […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released foreign steel import license data through the 26th of the month late this afternoon. Based on the data to date, January imports are trending toward a 2.5 to 2.7 million net ton level. This would be slightly higher than December’s 2.6 million tons and above November’s 2.4 million tons. […]
Steel Dynamics’ struggling recycling segment widened the company’s net loss to $253 million in fourth quarter 2015. It was determined that the book value of the metals recycling segment recorded $435 million in non-cash goodwill and other related asset impairment charge. Excluding the metals recycling charges, adjusted net income was $22 million on net sales […]
AK Steel has intentionally been reducing their exposure to the low-priced spot markets and instead they are looking at the higher end value added products going to automotive and other contract customers. AK Steel results exceeded analyst expectations for fourth quarter. The company reported a net loss of $147.1 million for the fourth quarter of […]
In the market analysis questionnaire concluded late last week we asked a number of questions regarding foreign steel and the potential for another uptick in foreign market penetration with the domestic mills raising flat rolled steel prices. We asked if the mill price announcements were opening the door and making foreign steel prices more competitive? […]
China’s economy, the second largest in the world behind the U.S., grew at 6.9 percent in 2015. That was pretty close to its target of 7 percent for the year but also the slowest rate since 1990. Data released by the Chinese government shows fourth quarter growth at 6.8 percent. As recently as 2007 China’s […]
The vast majority of the respondents to our latest flat rolled steel market analysis believe that the domestic steel mills will be able to collect “some” of the latest round of price increases which range from $20 to $30 per ton. In our latest assessment of the flat rolled market, we asked whether the domestic […]
US Steel may temporarily lay off almost 700 workers at US Steel Tubular Products-Lone Star in Houston. Employees were advised by US Steel that operations may be adjusted “due to softening market conditions.” WARN notice listed by the Texas Workforce Commission on Jan 11 shows 679 employees slated for possible layoff beginning March 16, 2016. […]
With all of the key flat rolled products, hot rolled, cold rolled and corrosion resistant steels involved in antidumping and countervailing trade suits and the results of the preliminary determinations coming out it can be daunting to keep track of where each case rests at this point in time. Steel Market Update reached out to […]
For the week ending January 16, 2016, the American Iron & Steel Institute (AISI) estimated the U.S. steel industry produced 1,652,000 net tons of raw steel, a 3.6 percent increase over the previous week but a 8.6 percent decrease over the same week one year ago. The estimated capacity utilization rate is 69.1 percent, up […]
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The U.S. Department of Commerce released foreign steel import license data for the month of January. Based on license data through the 19th of January steel imports are trending toward a 2.3-2.5 million net ton month. If the trend continues the month would be well below both the 3 month and 12 month moving averages […]
Each month the American Institute for International Steel (AIIS) provides an analysis of steel imports to the U.S. The following January 18 release describes imports for November. Falls Church, VA. January 18, 2016. Steel imports plunged once again in November, dipping to a level more than one-third less than a year earlier. The United States […]
There are zombie factories in China. No, they are not making zombies but the factories themselves are the equivalent of the walking dead–steel mills hanging on by a thread, not making money, reducing workforces, but clinging to life when they are all but dead. The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) is painting a grim […]
According to the latest data released from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute, apparent steel supply for the month of November 2015 was 7,710,331 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports and subtracting total US steel exports. Foreign steel […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
Net imports equals imports minus exports. We regard this as an important look at the overall trade picture and its effect on demand at the mill level. Figure 1 shows that net sheet product imports on a three month moving average (3MMA) basis at 546,093 tons in November continue to be more than double that […]
The following article is written by Spencer Johnson of FC Stone LLC. With six years of experience, Spencer provides his customers strategic and tactical advice on protecting themselves against commodity price volatility in the steel markets. Spencer rotates weekly futures articles with Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC. Spencer can be reached at spencer.johnson@intlfcstone.com. In […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce updated January 2016 foreign steel import license data earlier this week. For a number of months Steel Market Update has been comparing the data to see how the current month’s numbers compare to prior months in an effort to get a better handle on the trend. January’s number may be […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce issued their Preliminary Determination on countervailing duties (CVD) of hot rolled coil from Brazil, Turkey and South Korea. Affirmative results were found against Brazil with CSN and Usiminas both receiving subsidy rates of 7.42 percent. All other Brazilian mills not named also received 7.42 percent subsidy rates. Turkey and South […]
We thought our readers might find it interesting to review the past four years worth of imports from the three countries mentioned in the countervailing (CVD) duty preliminary determination just released by the U.S. Department of Commerce. The numbers in the table below are net tons and are annualized (yes, Brazil only shipped 4,467 tons […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced the final census data for foreign steel imports for the month of November. November imports were 2,453,593 net tons (not metric tons as we have already made the conversion from the US DOC charts) which is significantly below both the 3 month and 12 month moving averages (see table […]
SMU has developed a series of reports that cover hot rolled, cold rolled, HDG, other metallic coated, coiled plate and semi-finished slabs. These reports are a detailed drill down into tons by source country and port of entry which will enable you to determine exactly what is going on in your area for whichever product […]
Steel Market Update received the following press release from the US Department of Commerce International Trade Administration regarding the release of the preliminary determination for the hot rolled countervailing duty portion of the hot rolled trade case: On January 11, 2016, the Department of Commerce is scheduled to announce its preliminary determinations in the CVD […]
The Canadian International Trade Tribune determined on Jan. 6 that the dumping of hot-rolled carbon steel plate and high-strength low-alloy steel plate originating in or exported from India and Russia have not caused injury and are not threatening to cause injury to the domestic industry. CITT also found no injury from the subsidizing of those […]
In the first eleven months of 2015 bulk scrap exports were 11,762,000 tonnes for an annual rate of 12,831,000 tonnes, down by 17.5 percent from the first eleven months of 2014. The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages (3MMA) for 2015 and on the annual monthly average for previous […]
Steelworkers in Lorain, Ohio are having a dismal start to 2016. In addition to this week’s announcement by Republic Steel that it would idle operations at its rolling mill, US Steel confirmed layoffs are coming to Lorain Tubular. A union official reports 261 workers at US Steel’s Lorain Tubular Operations will be laid off beginning […]
Licensed data for December was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on January 5th. At SMU we perform a detailed analysis of this data, an explanation of our methodology is given at the end of this write up. Total rolled product licensed imports in the single month of December […]