Steel Market Update received the following information about the Chinese steel market through one of our trading sources located in Taiwan. Our source is a very active trader in China trading iron ore, steel and equipment with the Chinese steel mills. Here is some new information about the Chinese steel mills: Things are more complicated […]
The fifteenth anniversary of China’s accession to the World Trade Organization has passed without China receiving its coveted market economy status. The United States, European Union and Japan said they will continue to treat China as a non-market economy. A change in status would protect Chinese exporters from tariffs that the U.S., EU and others […]
We believe that misinformation (or lack of) about regional import volumes is often used to influence purchase decisions. Our intent with this analysis of tonnage by district of entry is to describe in detail what is going on in a company’s immediate neighborhood and thus provide a negotiating advantage for premium subscribers. We are now publishing […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through October 2016 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
Licensed data for November was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on December 6th. An explanation of the methodology that we at SMU use to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. All volumes in this analysis are reported in short tons. Total rolled […]
The Department of Commerce has assigned antidumping margins on large residential washing machines from China following an affirmative final determination on December 9, 2016. The imported machines, which are constructed of flat-rolled steel, were found to be sold at less than fair value in the United States. Although Commerce found critical circumstances existed during the […]
The European Commission will begin a new antidumping investigation of Chinese steel imports after finding that a complaint by steel association Eurofer merits inquiry. Eurofer alleged in a complaint on Oct. 24, 2016 that imports of certain corrosion resistant steels from China are being dumped and causing material injury to the EU steel industry. The […]
As you think about your business and where you think benchmark hot rolled prices will be in 2017 and 2018 one of the areas you need to consider are the energy markets. The energy markets have been in the doldrums for the past few years due to low oil and natural gas prices. The net […]
Early December logistic reports show no major problems in the shipping markets. Shipments on most transportation modes are expected to slow as the holiday season approaches. A new Secretary of Transportation has been appointed by President-elect Donald Trump. Elaine Cho, former Secretary of Labor under President George W. Bush and Deputy Secretary of Transportation under […]
Today, the U.S. Department of Commerce released Final Census Data for October 2016 as well as license data for November and early December. Since there have only been 6 days of licenses collected for December we are going to ignore that data for now and will report on December next week. October foreign steel imports […]
Wilbur Ross Jr. has been tapped by President-elect Donald Trump to serve as Commerce Secretary. Ross is a billionaire investor known as the “bankruptcy king.” Forbes estimates the Ross fortune at $2.9 billion made by buying and restructuring troubled companies. One of those companies was Donald Trump’s bankrupt casino in the 1990s. Ross was a […]
The ISM Report on Business showed economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanding in November for the third month in a row. The PMI, which covers manufacturing activity for the entire United States, rose to 53.2 percent from 51.9 in October. New orders increased by 0.9 points to 53 percent and production rose 1.4 percentage […]
The Department of Commerce has announced its affirmative final determinations in the antidumping investigations of imports of steel cut-to-length plate from Brazil, South Africa and Turkey. Brazil mandatory respondents were assigned dumping margins of 74.52 percent based on adverse facts for failure to cooperate in the investigation. All other producers and exporters in Brazil will […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. At the end of […]
Steel Market Update went out to a couple of hundred steel buyers and executives today as we probe for information about flat rolled steel prices. At the same time we asked questions about price direction and demand. Tonight we will cover price direction (prior to AM increase announcement) and on Thursday we will cover their […]
In the past foreign steel imports have been a key component to the health of the domestic manufacturing base in the United States. Foreign steel helps keep U.S. steel mill pricing reasonably competitive with the world steel markets. The domestic steel mills do not have the ability to produce all of the steel needed when […]
November foreign steel import license requests picked up since this time last week and the month is now trending toward a 3.0 million plus net tons of imports. We believe the total is slightly over-stated due to the Thanksgiving Holiday and that the long weekend will scale back the pace over the coming days and […]
This article was written by Paul Lowrey, President of Steel Research Associates, LLC. Over the last couple of years, a lot of attention has been paid to the high level of imports of steel mill products into the USA. Surprisingly, however, indirect steel imports have not received a lot of attention. Both the American Iron […]
According to the latest data released from the U.S. Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute, apparent steel supply for the month of September 2016 was 8,106,754 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports, then subtracting total US steel exports. September apparent […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears by the Federal Reserve, the latest value we have was dated November 10th, Figure 1. The dollar has appreciated strongly since the election in anticipation of higher interest […]
Licensed data for October was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on November 8th. An explanation of the methodology that we at SMU use to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. All volumes in this analysis are reported in short tons. Total rolled […]
With the antidumping (AD) and countervailing (CVD) duties cases on hot rolled, cold rolled and CORE (coated products such as galvanized and Galvalume) having gone through the investigation process, decisions on duties or deposit rates for various countries were announced in the Final Determinations. The US Department of Commerce (DOC) has issued deposit rates that […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) and financial futures markets was written by Andre and Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: The bearishness was so thick 1-2 months ago you could cut it with a knife! The steel futures were getting crushed, […]
A note to our Premium level members, we put out a Premium supplemental newsletter this afternoon that covered an extensive analysis of the MSCI data (long and flat rolled), there is also an article on currency values for steel trading nations (not good news for domestic mills as dollar has been strengthening), there is a […]
The World Trade Organization said 85 trade-restrictive measures were implemented by G20 economies from mid-May to October 2016, approximately 17 measures per month. The number is a slight decline from 21 per month reported in the previous reporting period but continues to be high compared to the roll-back of existing trade-restrictive measures. During the reporting […]
Steel trading companies are advising Steel Market Update that we should expect imports of foreign steel to be much lower as we move into the New Year. There are three major reasons for the slowdown in foreign orders: 1) the antidumping (AD) and countervailing (CVD) results fell in favor of the domestic steel mills, thus […]
We received a question from the financial community about “significant transformation” and the U.S. Department of Commerce initiation of an investigation into circumvention by China where hot rolled or cold rolled substrate is sent to Vietnam where it is then converted to cold rolled (from HRC) or coated steels. Their question was about the following […]
We believe that misinformation (or lack of) about regional foreign steel import volumes is often used to influence purchase decisions. Our intent with this analysis of tonnage by district of entry is to describe in detail what is going on in a company’s immediate neighborhood and, thus, provide a negotiating advantage for our premium subscribers. […]
Brazil has filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) against the United States over countervailing measures on imports of Brazilian cold- and hot-rolled steel flat products and requests dispute consultations with the U.S. In the November 11 filing, Brazil alleges the U.S. has been inconsistent with a number of procedural and substantive provisions […]
On Wednesday of this week I participated in the monthly HARDI conference call (see article in tonight’s newsletter). During the call one of the executives from an east coast HVAC wholesaler told the group that he didn’t believe prices could or would move much higher from here. I disagreed with him. One of the justifications […]