November foreign steel import license requests picked up since this time last week and the month is now trending toward a 3.0 million plus net tons of imports. We believe the total is slightly over-stated due to the Thanksgiving Holiday and that the long weekend will scale back the pace over the coming days and […]
This article was written by Paul Lowrey, President of Steel Research Associates, LLC. Over the last couple of years, a lot of attention has been paid to the high level of imports of steel mill products into the USA. Surprisingly, however, indirect steel imports have not received a lot of attention. Both the American Iron […]
According to the latest data released from the U.S. Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute, apparent steel supply for the month of September 2016 was 8,106,754 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports, then subtracting total US steel exports. September apparent […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears by the Federal Reserve, the latest value we have was dated November 10th, Figure 1. The dollar has appreciated strongly since the election in anticipation of higher interest […]
Licensed data for October was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on November 8th. An explanation of the methodology that we at SMU use to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. All volumes in this analysis are reported in short tons. Total rolled […]
With the antidumping (AD) and countervailing (CVD) duties cases on hot rolled, cold rolled and CORE (coated products such as galvanized and Galvalume) having gone through the investigation process, decisions on duties or deposit rates for various countries were announced in the Final Determinations. The US Department of Commerce (DOC) has issued deposit rates that […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) and financial futures markets was written by Andre and Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: The bearishness was so thick 1-2 months ago you could cut it with a knife! The steel futures were getting crushed, […]
A note to our Premium level members, we put out a Premium supplemental newsletter this afternoon that covered an extensive analysis of the MSCI data (long and flat rolled), there is also an article on currency values for steel trading nations (not good news for domestic mills as dollar has been strengthening), there is a […]
The World Trade Organization said 85 trade-restrictive measures were implemented by G20 economies from mid-May to October 2016, approximately 17 measures per month. The number is a slight decline from 21 per month reported in the previous reporting period but continues to be high compared to the roll-back of existing trade-restrictive measures. During the reporting […]
Steel trading companies are advising Steel Market Update that we should expect imports of foreign steel to be much lower as we move into the New Year. There are three major reasons for the slowdown in foreign orders: 1) the antidumping (AD) and countervailing (CVD) results fell in favor of the domestic steel mills, thus […]
We received a question from the financial community about “significant transformation” and the U.S. Department of Commerce initiation of an investigation into circumvention by China where hot rolled or cold rolled substrate is sent to Vietnam where it is then converted to cold rolled (from HRC) or coated steels. Their question was about the following […]
We believe that misinformation (or lack of) about regional foreign steel import volumes is often used to influence purchase decisions. Our intent with this analysis of tonnage by district of entry is to describe in detail what is going on in a company’s immediate neighborhood and, thus, provide a negotiating advantage for our premium subscribers. […]
Brazil has filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) against the United States over countervailing measures on imports of Brazilian cold- and hot-rolled steel flat products and requests dispute consultations with the U.S. In the November 11 filing, Brazil alleges the U.S. has been inconsistent with a number of procedural and substantive provisions […]
On Wednesday of this week I participated in the monthly HARDI conference call (see article in tonight’s newsletter). During the call one of the executives from an east coast HVAC wholesaler told the group that he didn’t believe prices could or would move much higher from here. I disagreed with him. One of the justifications […]
The Department of Commerce announced on Monday its affirmative preliminary determinations in the antidumping investigations of imports of certain carbon and alloy steel cut-to-length plate (CTL plate) from Austria, Belgium, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. CTL plate is a flat-rolled carbon and alloy steel product that is 4.75 mm or more in […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) released Final Census Data on imports of foreign steel for the month of September 2016. Imports totaled 2,775,565 net tons which is 9.5 percent below the August import numbers. The U.S. continues to see strong imports of semi-finished steels (slabs/billets) which are used by the domestic steel mills. Hot […]
As we begin November and head into the winter season, SMU took a quick look at shipping conditions in the various transportation modes. Seaborne Stabilizing global steel prices and an increase in Chinese coal imports have helped seaborne freight rates rebound from their lows of early 2016. Vessel overcapacity continues to make any improvement in […]
Imports of foreign steel came in at 2,744,669 net tons for the month of September based on the U.S. Department of Commerce Preliminary Census Data while October is trending at almost the exact same number with 2,774,493 net tons of foreign steel import license requests as of the 1st day of November. When comparing the […]
I have had a number of conversations with steel mills and steel buyers regarding when the next flat rolled steel price increase would be announced by the domestic mills? My opinion is the mills will use the new ferrous scrap settlement prices combined with stronger order books as the reasons for going out after perhaps […]
On Thursday (October 27, 2016) Cliffs Natural Resources conducted their 3rd Quarter 2016 earnings conference call with analysts. During the call Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves made statements regarding steel service centers which he reported as importing “illegal steel,” thus hurting the domestic steel industry. He also pointed out that service center inventories were “dangerously low” […]
The following “letter to the editor” was prompted by comments made by Lourenco Goncalves CEO of Cliffs Natural Resources during his earnings conference call with analysts and reported on by Steel Market Update (and others). The comments below were made by an executive at a domestic steel service center in response to Mr. Goncalves: I’m […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) is adjusting our Price Momentum Indicator to “Higher” from Neutral. It is our opinion that flat rolled steel prices in the United States and Canada will move higher over the next 30 to 60 days. There are a number of reasons why we have chosen to make this move now, here […]
The Brazilian Steel Association has requested that the World Trade Organization initiate a “bilateral consultation” with the United States regarding the countervailing duties applied against imports of Brazilian hot and cold-rolled steel. The Association claims that the U.S. Department of Commerce did not take into consideration in their determination of “actionable subsidies” the explanations by […]
SSAB Americas, recorded a third quarter operating loss of SEK 73 million ($8.1 million) compared to a profit of SEK 162 million ($18 million) in Q2 2016. The loss was due mainly to the maintenance outage at Montpelier in the third quarter, higher variable costs, lower volumes and lower capacity utilization which was somewhat offset […]
Cliffs Natural Resources reported iron ore pellet sales volume in third quarter was 5.3 million long tons compared to 5.6 million long tons in 2015. Production was also down at 3.86 million long tons compared to 4 million long tons the year before. The decrease was attributed to customer inventory mix that was partly offset […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by David Feldstein. As Flack Steel’s director of risk management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. […]
On Monday, the U.S. Department of Commerce (Commerce) announced its affirmative final determinations in the antidumping investigations of imports of circular welded carbon-quality steel pipe from Pakistan, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, and Vietnam, and the countervailing investigation of imports of the same merchandise from Pakistan. The investigations cover welded carbon-quality steel pipe and tube, […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of September 2016, providing updated data on iron ore imports, scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in September were 92,990,000 metric tons, an increase of 6.0 percent from the previous month and an increase of 8.0 percent from […]
One of our key Asian steel and commodity trading sources has provided SMU with details about the Chinese steel markets as well as what is happening in Asia,including comments about the circumvention suit which involves Vietnam: Export offers from China have basically risen by USD20/mt in the past two weeks, and it has become a […]
Steel Dynamics reported higher flat rolled prices resulted in an 11 percent increase in earnings in the third quarter. Net earnings were $284 million on net sales of $2.1 billion. Adjusted net income, including a $5 million litigation settlement charge, was $157 million for the quarter. SDI steel production was at 85 percent capacity in […]