Shipping wound down for 2016 with mixed reports. Seaborne rates hit bottom and began an upward climb. U.S. river traffic was sluggish due to holidays and weather. U.S. rail volume, down overall for 2016, picked up in the final week of December. U.S. truck rates increased and shipping volume surged due to holiday delivery and […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures markets was written by David Feldstein. As Flack Steel’s director of risk management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing Futures articles for […]
Licensed data for December was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on January 3rd. An explanation of the methodology that use at SMU to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. All volumes in this analysis are reported in short tons. In December, on […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. Looking back from the […]
We are but a few days away from the beginning of the New Year. We thought it prudent as we plan for 2017 that we take a look at what transpired with flat rolled steel prices over the course of the past 12 months. Because the market “bottomed” in December 2015 we have expanded our […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce reported Preliminary Census Data for November showing foreign steel imports totaling 2.8 million net tons for the month.This is up from 2.7 million net tons reported during the month of October. We saw increases in semi-finished of 210,000 net tons which accounted for the larger numbers. Semi-finished steels include slabs […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears by the Federal Reserve, the latest value published was dated December 16th, Figure 1. The dollar as of that date was stronger than at any time since April […]
Earlier this week the U.S. Department of Commerce released new license data on foreign steel imports into the United States for the months of November and December. At this time both months appear poised to come in just under 3.0 million net tons. We are seeing some changes in the trends regarding various products. For […]
US Steel indicated it may permanently close the Lorain Tubular No. 4 seamless mill, which has been idle since April 2015, as well as the No. 1 Electric-Weld Pipe Mill at Lone Star Tubular. USW Local 1104, in Lorain, Ohio, was notified of the plan on December 14. The 90-day notice does not mean that […]
Steel Dynamics is expecting fourth quarter profitability to decline from third due to lower shipments and metal spread compression. Shipments were down in both the flat and long products categories. In addition, lower steel pricing more than offset savings realized from lower ferrous scrap costs. Impairment charges for the quarter are still being assessed related […]
Steel buyers and executives associated with the service center industry are reporting to Steel Market Update that end users are accepting that we are in a higher priced flat rolled steel environment and most have placed their first quarter 2017 tons. The expectation is for the market to “pause” here due to the holidays which […]
According to the latest data released from the U.S. Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute, apparent steel supply for the month of October 2016 was 8,338,361 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports, then subtracting total US steel exports. October apparent […]
Nucor announced today that fourth quarter results are likely to be lower than third quarter due to lower margins in the steel mills segment, particularly at the company’s sheet mills, and seasonal slower activity. The raw materials segment is also expected to decline significantly, returning to a loss position due to lower pricing at Nucor’s […]
There are a number of players in the market that are overly concerned (in my opinion) about the restart of the USS Granite City hot strip mill (they are not yet restarting the two idled blast furnaces so they are not adding any new raw steel production into the market) and Mingo Junction (reported to […]
Steel Market Update received the following information about the Chinese steel market through one of our trading sources located in Taiwan. Our source is a very active trader in China trading iron ore, steel and equipment with the Chinese steel mills. Here is some new information about the Chinese steel mills: Things are more complicated […]
The fifteenth anniversary of China’s accession to the World Trade Organization has passed without China receiving its coveted market economy status. The United States, European Union and Japan said they will continue to treat China as a non-market economy. A change in status would protect Chinese exporters from tariffs that the U.S., EU and others […]
We believe that misinformation (or lack of) about regional import volumes is often used to influence purchase decisions. Our intent with this analysis of tonnage by district of entry is to describe in detail what is going on in a company’s immediate neighborhood and thus provide a negotiating advantage for premium subscribers. We are now publishing […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through October 2016 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
Licensed data for November was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on December 6th. An explanation of the methodology that we at SMU use to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. All volumes in this analysis are reported in short tons. Total rolled […]
The Department of Commerce has assigned antidumping margins on large residential washing machines from China following an affirmative final determination on December 9, 2016. The imported machines, which are constructed of flat-rolled steel, were found to be sold at less than fair value in the United States. Although Commerce found critical circumstances existed during the […]
The European Commission will begin a new antidumping investigation of Chinese steel imports after finding that a complaint by steel association Eurofer merits inquiry. Eurofer alleged in a complaint on Oct. 24, 2016 that imports of certain corrosion resistant steels from China are being dumped and causing material injury to the EU steel industry. The […]
As you think about your business and where you think benchmark hot rolled prices will be in 2017 and 2018 one of the areas you need to consider are the energy markets. The energy markets have been in the doldrums for the past few years due to low oil and natural gas prices. The net […]
Early December logistic reports show no major problems in the shipping markets. Shipments on most transportation modes are expected to slow as the holiday season approaches. A new Secretary of Transportation has been appointed by President-elect Donald Trump. Elaine Cho, former Secretary of Labor under President George W. Bush and Deputy Secretary of Transportation under […]
Today, the U.S. Department of Commerce released Final Census Data for October 2016 as well as license data for November and early December. Since there have only been 6 days of licenses collected for December we are going to ignore that data for now and will report on December next week. October foreign steel imports […]
Wilbur Ross Jr. has been tapped by President-elect Donald Trump to serve as Commerce Secretary. Ross is a billionaire investor known as the “bankruptcy king.” Forbes estimates the Ross fortune at $2.9 billion made by buying and restructuring troubled companies. One of those companies was Donald Trump’s bankrupt casino in the 1990s. Ross was a […]
The ISM Report on Business showed economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanding in November for the third month in a row. The PMI, which covers manufacturing activity for the entire United States, rose to 53.2 percent from 51.9 in October. New orders increased by 0.9 points to 53 percent and production rose 1.4 percentage […]
The Department of Commerce has announced its affirmative final determinations in the antidumping investigations of imports of steel cut-to-length plate from Brazil, South Africa and Turkey. Brazil mandatory respondents were assigned dumping margins of 74.52 percent based on adverse facts for failure to cooperate in the investigation. All other producers and exporters in Brazil will […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. At the end of […]
Steel Market Update went out to a couple of hundred steel buyers and executives today as we probe for information about flat rolled steel prices. At the same time we asked questions about price direction and demand. Tonight we will cover price direction (prior to AM increase announcement) and on Thursday we will cover their […]
In the past foreign steel imports have been a key component to the health of the domestic manufacturing base in the United States. Foreign steel helps keep U.S. steel mill pricing reasonably competitive with the world steel markets. The domestic steel mills do not have the ability to produce all of the steel needed when […]