This morning Steel Dynamics (SDI) conducted their earnings conference call with analysts where they discussed their 1Q earnings and how they see the steel markets shaping up in the coming months. During the call, CEO Mark Millet told the analysts that the market will support “good prices” for the steel mills and he was not […]
Earlier today, President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order requesting the U.S. Department of Commerce conduct an investigation under the Section 232 statutes (national security) to see if steel and imports of foreign steel are important to National Security interests of the United States. “We’re going to use American steel, we’re going to use American […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released the latest update on foreign steel import license request on Tuesday evening. The data suggest that April will be similar to that of March where license data is at 3.5 million net tons. Both March and the April trend a well above both the 12 month and 3 month […]
With consolidated sales of $4.82 billion which is a 30 percent increase over 1Q 2016 and net earnings of $356.9 million it was a good 1st Quarter 2017 for the company. The company reported that the second quarter earnings should exceed that of 1st Quarter. The overall operating rates at the Nucor steel mills was […]
Steel Market Update has been proactively writing about our expectations for Executive Orders and their impact on foreign steel imports. It is clear that the steel lobby has the ear of the president and this has to be quite frustrating to the same companies he is trying to convince to come back to the United […]
The debate these days seems to be centered around how much inventory is really out there, how much is incoming (especially from foreign sources) and how much flat rolled will buyers need to buy come this summer? Earlier today I asked a small steel mill if they believed the low coated inventories (1.65 months) according […]
Steel Market Update participates in a monthly steel conference call hosted by HARDI (Heating, Air-conditioning, and Refrigeration Distributors International) for their members. The HARDI conference call is dedicated to a better understanding of the galvanized steel market. The participants are wholesalers, service centers and manufacturing companies who either buy or sell galvanized sheet products used […]
The prices of oil and natural gas drive the consumption of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and related steel products. The energy markets represent a large portion of the hot rolled coil used to make welded tubular goods as well as equipment used to drill and pump oil and natural gas. Figure 1 shows historical […]
The following article is reprinted with permission from author Steven W. Baker, AIIS Customs Committee Chair, and originally published by AIIS in their Customs Corner newsletter. President Trump issued a March 31, 2017 Executive Order on Establishing Enhanced Collection and Enforcement of Antidumping and Countervailing Duties and Violations of Trade and Customs Laws. This Order […]
The following is a press release on steel exports from the American Institute for International Steel with updates from AIIS on 4/18/2017: Falls Church, VA. April 17, 2017. Steel exports rose slightly from January to February to total 827,559 net tons. February exports were 1.1 percent higher than in January and 6.2 percent higher than […]
We believe that misinformation (or lack of) about regional import volumes is often used to influence purchase decisions. Our intent with this analysis of tonnage by district of entry is to describe in detail what is going on in a company’s immediate neighborhood and thus provide a negotiating advantage for our premium subscribers. We are […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through February 2017 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments with total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
Freight shipment on the seas, rivers, rails and by truck moved without many complications in the past few weeks. The seaborne freight market spot rates are recovering and foreign steel industries are boosting cargos of coal and iron ore. Spot rates have caught up with demand for the trucking industry and rail traffic was up. […]
Commerce issued an order on Wednesday to rescind the circumvention inquiry on imported Chinese cut-to-length steel plate containing alloying elements that was initiated on February 10, 2016. The inquiry is to be rescinded as of April 12, 2017. With antidumping and countervailing duties just issued in March 2017 on CTL from China, this notice from […]
Steel Market Update is asked many times where we think flat rolled steel prices are heading. Our current SMU Price Momentum Indicator is at “Neutral” which means we believe the market to be in transition and, prices could move in either direction from this point. We adjusted our indicator just recently from Higher to Neutral […]
Around the middle of the month Steel Market Update (SMU) will analyze the US Department of Commerce Steel Import Monitoring & Analysis (SIMA) system to see how foreign steel imports are tracking and project total imports for the month based on the mid-month daily average. What we have been tracking is a very high number […]
Antidumping duties on oil and gas drilling pipes from South Korea were increased on Tuesday after an administrative review by Commerce. Duties were raise to a range of 2.76 – 24.92 percent from previously assigned duties of 4 – 6.5 percent. New provisions under the Trade Preferences Extension Act of 2015 allow Commerce to consider market […]
Flat rolled prices were essentially unchanged this week with the exception of hot rolled coil which seems to have a few more “legs” in the product due to an improving energy market and limited foreign steel imports. The pressure on HRC right now is coming from the two new players: Big River Steel and Acero […]
There have been many press reports regarding the rumor that the Trump Administration is going to call for an “investigation” aimed at steel and aluminum. What our readers may find interesting is there are suggestions that the order may include manufactured products We have seen reports from the press and attorneys for steel service centers […]
In July 2015 the domestic steel mills filed Antidumping (AD) and Countervailing Duties (CVD) against seven countries: Brazil, China, India, Korea, Russia, Japan and the United Kingdom. The final determinations were affirmed by the ITC in late June (Japan, China) and early September (all others) 2016. Antidumping deposit rates ranged from zero (Japan & UK) […]
According to the latest data released from the U.S. Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute, apparent steel supply for the month of February 2017 was 8,501,854 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports, then subtracting total US steel exports. February apparent […]
On Friday Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our flat rolled steel Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral from Higher. The key reason behind our decision to move our indicator is “indecision” in the marketplace. More about that in a moment. The current market cycle began on October 21, 2016 when the domestic mills were able to […]
Licensed data for March was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on March 4th. An explanation of the methodology that we at SMU use to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. All volumes in this analysis are reported in short tons. The total […]
We are continuing our investigation to quantify the players in the global trade of both HRC and CRC. We now have data for all of 2016. This information is sourced quarterly from the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau in the UK. Data is not very current because many countries are slow in reporting but we […]
For those who missed my comment earlier, Acero Junction hot strip mill is rolling at close to full right now. Our sources are advising us that the mill is running about 50,000 tons of HRC. They have prime slabs on the floor and incoming from Brazil (one of the reasons why semi-finished imports continue to […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures markets was written by David Feldstein. As the Flack Global Metals director of risk management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing futures […]
Based on the report filed by the U.S. Department of Commerce earlier this week, March 2017 foreign steel imports will be well above 3 million net tons and could be as high as 3.4 million tons. The last time we saw licenses at, or above, 3.4 million net tons was May 2015, the month prior […]
Flat rolled steel prices are showing themselves as being in a “mature” market having been on the rise for most of the 24 weeks since prices began their climb at the end of October 2016. We peaked out on hot rolled at $655 per ton over the last two weeks. This week we moved off […]
In August 2015, the U.S. steel mills filed antidumping and countervailing duty charges against seven countries: Australia, Brazil, Japan, the Netherlands, Turkey and the United Kingdom. Antidumping (AD) was found in each of the seven countries with duties of 3.73 percent to as high as 34.28 percent. Countervailing Duties (CVD) were found to exist in […]
The dry bulk freight market is through with its cyclic low and is headed toward a positive market, according to the latest MID-SHIP Report. MID-SHIP noted that Baltic Dry Index on March 29 was 1338, its highest rate since November 2014. As of today, April 4, the BDI has dropped to 1282. The shipping market […]