Lately, Steel Market Update (SMU) has been hearing the word “risk” bantered about by many within the steel industry. In Steel Market Update’s opinion, how one perceives the risks associated with buy and sell decisions is one of the factors determining the direction of flat rolled steel prices. which at this time are moving lower. […]
The U.S. International Trade Commission made a final determination that the U.S. steel industry has been materially injured by imports of carbon and alloy steel cut-to-length plate from Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. Antidumping (AD) orders will be issued on imports of these products from the eight countries as well as […]
According to the latest data released from the U.S. Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute, apparent steel supply for the month of March 2017 was 9,300,718 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports, then subtracting total US steel exports. This is […]
Twice per month, Steel Market Update (SMU) conducts a review of how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful in the existing market (Current Sentiment) as well as three to six months out (Future Sentiment). Earlier today we crunched the data and found the flat rolled steel […]
It is the first week of May and the negotiations between the long and flat rolled steel mills have been in full swing all week. By late today (Thursday) word of how the scrap dealers had fared has been coming into our offices. The first region to settle was Detroit which was up $10 on […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce recently released Final Census Data for March 2017 foreign steel imports. The month officially came in at 3.4 million net tons. This is a huge month. What is probably worrying the steel mills is the license data for April is indicating there will be another boom month for imports as […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures markets was written by David Feldstein. As the Flack Global Metals director of risk management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing futures […]
The State of Texas is attempting to lure a new flat rolled steel mill to the state. According to various press reports there appear to be two interested parties: Big River Steel and the E United Group out of Taiwan. Is Big River Steel already planning to expand? That seems to be what the Port […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears by the Federal Reserve, the latest value published was dated April 14th (Figure 1). The dollar had a recent peak of 128.963 on January 3rd which was the […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. We now have two […]
In normal markets it is fairly easy to determine where foreign price offers “should” be based on the indexes of export prices in Asia, Europe, Middle East and elsewhere. SMU wants to begin tonight’s article to warn our readers that we are not in a “normal” market due to antidumping suits and now the Section […]
The following data is from the American Institute for International Steel (AIIS): Falls Church, VA. May 1, 2017. Steel imports spiked by nearly a quarter in March, and were almost a third higher than they were a year earlier. March imports increased 24.7 percent from February to 3.4 million net tons, 30.5 percent higher than […]
The Commerce Department is seeking input from American businesses on what factors contribute to the trade deficit. Commerce is collecting information to submit to President Trump as an information base for renegotiating trade deals and to deter and punish trade abuse. “Many trade abuses are well known to American companies, but because different Federal agencies […]
For a number of weeks now (?) Steel Market Update has had our Price Momentum Indicator pointing toward Neutral as opposed to Higher or Lower. Over the past couple of weeks flat rolled prices have been coming off their highs and yet SMU continues to keep our Price Momentum Indicator at Neutral. What gives? Why […]
Olympic Steel reported a very positive first quarter. Higher shipment volume and pricing resulted in a 30 percent increase in net sales to $334.9 million resulting in net income of $7.7 million. Sales and margins increased in all three segments of Olympic Steel due to increased demand and higher pricing. Carbon flat products turned in […]
Reliance Steel & Aluminum turned in a strong first quarter with sales up 17.4 percent to $2.42 billion from Q4 2016 and net income up 81 percent to $111.7 million. On a year-over-year basis sales were up 11.9 percent and income 21.1 percent. “Improved demand, higher metal pricing and continued strong execution resulted in record […]
Cliffs Natural Resources continues to shore up its balance sheet and focus on reducing its debt. A $72 million debt extinguishment/restructuring charge resulted in a net loss of $30 million for the quarter. Debt was reduced by $550 million during Q1 resulting in total debt at the end of the quarter of $1.6 billion. First […]
Is the newly initiated Section 232 the Black Swan event that will remove steel supply from the market and tip the balance of supply/demand in favor of the domestic steel mills, thus pushing prices to levels not seen since 2008? There should not be any doubt that the make-up of the Trump Administration, coupled with […]
Produced by: Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report & Analysis On April 20, 2017, President Trump issued a Presidential Memorandum (“Memorandum”) directing the Secretary of Commerce (“Secretary”) to prioritize investigating the effects of steel imports on national security pursuant to Section 232(b) of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Under the Act, if the Secretary determines […]
This week the Trump administration initiated an investigation on the impact of steel imports on national security under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Section 232 has been initiated 26 times within the last 55 years but only two (1979 and 1983) found a threat to national security, both involving crude oil. […]
US Steel stunned analysts and the financial community on Tuesday/Wednesday when the company announced a large loss when the street was expecting the company to make money. During the conference call the mill advised that they essentially need to upgrade their facilities in order for the company to remain competitive. The stock price dropped 25 […]
Galvalume imports through the first three months 2017 total 292,843 net tons. If this pace continues throughout the calendar year imports of “other metallic” products (with the majority being Galvalume) could exceed 1.1 million tons despite the antidumping and countervailing duty suits. As you can see by the table below, there has been steady growth […]
A ruling was made by the ITC on wood from Canada that could have long lasting implications for the flat rolled steel industry. On April 24, 2017, the International Trade Administration (ITC) released their Preliminary Determination of Countervailable subsidies of softwood lumber from Canada. The ITC found that there were subsidies on wood from Canada. […]
AK Steel reported net income of $62.5 million for its best first quarter since 2008. Shipments declined to 1,486,900 tons year-over-year due to intentionally reduced sales of lower margin products. Net sales increased one percent from Q1 2016 to $1.53 billion as a result of increases in average selling price on both spot and contract […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released import license data for April as well as Preliminary Census Data for the month of March. The Preliminary Census Data will be finalized in about a week’s time and usually there are only minimal revisions. March foreign steel imports are being reported as being 3.4 million net tons. This […]
New home sales reached an 8-month high as the spring season brought out new buyers. Sales of new single-family homes rose 5.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 621,000 in March. The rate is 15.6 percent above the March 2016 estimate, according to the US Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban […]
Steel Market Update has been working on trying to get a better understanding of the pipe and tube business. We had a conversation with Barry Zekelman, Chairman and CEO of Zekelman Industries, the largest privately held pipe and tube manufacturer in the country. Our initial conversation was about foreign steel imports and how they were […]
There has been much discussion about the impact of foreign steel on the U.S. economy and specifically how it impacts the steel industry and steel prices. Most in the steel industry believe foreign steel to be a cancer on world trading while others see it as a way of taking wealth from one country and […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) has been going through the import data as presented by the U.S. Department of Commerce going back to 2009 (Great Recession) and looking at the market as we came out of the Great Recession. In 2009, 2010 and 2011 galvanized imports were 1 to 1.5 million net tons. In 2012 and […]
Since Thursday, when President Donald Trump signed his executive order calling for an analysis of the steel industry from a “national security” perspective, I have been swamped with emails and phone calls questioning what is going on and what do I think about the chances of something happening that will impact the amount of foreign […]