The confidence level for home builders rose by one point to 47 in the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for March. Builders are concerned about meeting demand due to a shortage of buildable lots and difficulty in finding skilled workers. Of additional concern, said said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe, are […]
Housing starts and new home prices both improved in early 2014. Canadian new home prices rose 0.3 percent in January following a 0.1 percent drop in December. The increase in the New Housing Price Index (NHPI) was the largest since May 2012. Prices soared 1.3 percent in the Calgary metropolitan area due to higher material […]
Key Banc recently published its report entitled “The Industrial Cycle: Monthly Update on Key End Markets.” The following is a summary of findings from report that SMU readers may find interesting. Key Banc says the outlook for industrial activity remains positive for 2014. After a dismal performance in January affected by weather conditions, activity rebounded […]
We are producing two articles on construction expenditures this evening. The one below is written by Peter Wright and delves into a much deeper analysis than our previous article. This is one of our Premium Level articles and gives you an idea of some of the content we share with our Premium Level members. Each […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index for general business conditions fell 8 points to 4.5 in the February 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey after rising 10 points in January. New orders were flat for the month, declining 11 points to -0.2. Manufacturers remained optimistic about business conditions for the next six months. The future general business […]
The following is an abridged version of the Chicago Federal Reserve statement plus our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the end of this piece. The official statement […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty-six. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. The present situation of […]
The consumer confidence index declined by 1.3 in February driven by an increase of 4.4 in the present situation component and a decline of 5.4 in consumer expectations. The three month moving average (3MMA) of both the present view and expectations increased which caused the composite to rise from 76.3 to 78.3 (Figure 1). The […]
Buyers and sellers have mixed emotions and opinions regarding the current steel market. Most companies which Steel Market Update has spoken or traded emails with over the past few weeks are telling us their order books are “OK” and in line with what they saw last year at this time. Most companies believe their demand […]
Sales of new single family homes rose 9.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 468,000 in January from a revised December rate of 427,000, according to data released by the US Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development. The year-over-year increase of home sales was 2.2 percent above the January […]
In 12 months through January 16,126,151 light vehicles and 440,473 medium and heavy trucks were assembled in the NAFTA. On a rolling 12 month basis year over year (y/y) light vehicle assemblies were up by 5.2 percent. In 3 months through January y/y the increase was 2.6 percent. Momentum is negative since the short term […]
Total housing starts in January were down 16 percent from December and 20.1 percent from November with very little difference between single and multi-family construction. That is the news headline but on a closer analysis the situation is not so dire. On a three month moving average basis the recent results form only a slight […]
Gibraltar Industries is expecting 2014 growth to be driven mainly by the residential new construction and residential remodeling said the company in its earnings call on Feb. 20. “While we’re starting 2014 at a relatively slow pace given the cold and harsh weather in much of the country since the new year, we believe the […]
Winter weather has taken its toll on builder confidence in the single-family home market says the National Association of Homebuilders. Builders also expressed concern about labor shortage and scarcity of available lots. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped 10 points to 46, with all three of the major components of the index falling in […]
A recovery in non-residential construction is happening said research analyst Timna Tanners, in a report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, but the upturn for the non-residential cycle has taken longer than expected and is “less pronounced” than usual. The last strong cycle for non-residential construction was in 2005-2007, supporting a booming housing market. The […]
Steel analyst Charles Bradford of Bradford Research spoke at the Port of Tampa Steel Conference this past week. He presented a relatively upbeat analysis of the domestic steel industry. He began by referring to a recent McKinsey and Company report which basically said, “The steel industry has had it, it’s over. The industry doesn’t make […]
Residential building permit authorizations in Canada for December declined for the second month, falling 14.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 186,780 units from 216,608 units in November. According to data released by Statistics Canada, multi-family dwelling authorizations led the decline, dropping 21.3 percent while single family dwellings inched down 0.1 percent. Value […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index rose 10 points to 12.5, indicating acceleration in business activity and reaching its highest level since May 2012. Prices paid and prices received rose in double digits in January with prices paid soaring 21 points to 36.6 indicating higher input costs. The six month outlook is optimistic with orders up […]
Construction spending inched up 0.1 percent in December and picked up a modest 4.8 percent for all of 2013. Apartments and single-family homes offset declines in private nonresidential and public projects, according to US Census Bureau data analyzed by the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC). The AGC reported: “Construction put in place totaled $930 […]
Earnings reports are accompanied by conference calls which allow us to get some insight on what the steel leaders are thinking about in the industry. SMU decided to look at the comments by AK Steel, Nucor, Steel Dynamics, and US Steel for ideas on where the steel industry is headed for 2014. All four of […]
The headline number for Q4 was that GDP expanded by 3.2 percent from Q3, (Q/Q) which was down from the 4.1 percent expansion of Q3 over Q2. A better measure is that 2013 as a whole expanded by 2.74 percent which was the third straight quarter of expansion on a year-over-year basis. This is the […]
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed continued growth in a report released this week. The November 2013, 10-City and 20-City composites increased by 13.8 percent and 13.7 percent year-over-year, respectively. The month-to-month indices decline 1.0 percent in November, the first decrease since November 2012. Nine out of 20 cities in the survey recorded positive returns, […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered by Steel Market Update at present is thirty six. The present situation of twelve of the indicators based on historical standards was positive on January 28th […]
Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI. HARDI stands for Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and The Institute for Trend Research (ITR), an economic forecasting company, work together to gather economic data to provide a forecast to the HARDI members located […]
Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI. HARDI stands for Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and The Institute for Trend Research (ITR), an economic forecasting company, work together to gather economic data to provide a forecast to the HARDI members located […]
Industrial production and manufacturing capacity utilization, December 2013. Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 101.76 for December; this was the first month for the index to exceed the pre-recession peak of September 2007. The three month moving average (3MMA) at 101.21 was […]
Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI. HARDI stands for Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and The Institute for Trend Research (ITR), an economic forecasting company, work together to gather economic data to provide a forecast to the HARDI members located in the United […]
The most significant observation about housing permits and starts in 2013 was how the growth rate of both single and multi-family slowed progressively during the year. The three month moving average (3MMA) of the year-over-year growth rate of single family declined from 29.6 percent in March to 10.8 percent in December as multi-family declined from […]
The Dodge Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning and is published by McGraw Hill Construction. The report leads construction spending by a full year and can be used an indicator for future construction. Any reading above 100, established for year 2000, indicates growth in construction […]
Canadian building permits declined in November to 18,173, falling 3.6 percent from October. The value of permits issued dropped 6.7 percent to $6.8 billion after gaining 8 percent the previous month. Permit values have been an upward trend with eight monthly increases in 2013. In the residential sector, the total value of permits declined 7.6 […]