The housing market is struggling. Even though the steel content of housing is only a small proportion of total steel consumption, housing is a leading indicator of many construction sectors, such as non-residential and sub sectors of infrastructure, and has a large multiplier effect in the economy as a whole. Existing home sales dipped again […]
Residential building permit authorizations and housing starts surged in April after a weak showing during the winter months. Housing starts in April increased 13.2 percent from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,072,000 and jumped 26.4 percent from the April 2013 rate, according to data released by the Department of Housing and Urban […]
The following article is written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and the instructor for our brand new Managing Price Risk II: Strategies & Execution workshop. Every week we produce an article about futures trading and, in Andre’s case, about the broader financial markets. Andre begins with the a look at the financial […]
Both Industrial Production (IP) and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 102.744 for April, with a three month moving average (3MMA) of 102.83. This was the fifth consecutive month for the index to exceed the pre-recession peak of September 2007. The 3MMA has […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their first estimate of real GDP today, (April 30th) for Q1 2014. GDP rose in the fourth quarter by 2.6 percent but declined to 0.1 percent in the first estimate for Q1 2014. Figure 1 shows quarterly results since 1990 with the IMF forecast through 2018. The Q1 […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its construction put in place (CPIP) data on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. March data was released on May 1st. Total Construction March expenditures were $69.142 billion which breaks down to $51.210 B of private work, $16.064 B state and locally financed and $1.868 B […]
Economic data released in April indicated signs of slower growth in the economy. Survey participants, however, continue to be optimistic about business activity during the next three to six months. The Architecture Billings Index fell to 48.8 in April, indicating contraction after hovering just above the neutral point for the last two months. The protracted […]
Financial Markets We are still in the testing of the highs mode, closing in the 1877.50 zone on S+P 500, not much different from a week back. Need to take the out the old high and test 1900 again, otherwise… The Fed tapered on the easing, paring the buying program back $10 bln /month again–think […]
This article is part of a longer article first published on Thursday, May 1st and is written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC and our Managing Price Risk II instructor: Steel It was a fairly quiet week in futures with 400 lots or 8,000 ST trading most of yesterday on the July date. […]
Will 2014 be a breakthrough year for construction? That was the premise of a webinar presented by Reed Construction Data paneled by Bernie Markstein, US chief economist at Reed Construction Data; Kermit Baker, chief economist at the American Institute of Architects (AIA); and Ken Simonson, chief economist at Associated General Contractors of America (AGC). The […]
The following article published April 13, is one that we would normally just provide to our Premium Level members. We thought that those who have Executive level and Monthly membership would be interested in some of the detail we are providing our Premium Level members. If you have questions about Premium Level membership please feel […]
The consumer confidence index decreased by 1.6 in April driven by a decline of 4.2 in the present situation component and an increase of 0.1 in expectations. Job availability was the main drag, a surprising result since economists expect the April net job creation report to be strong when reported by the Bureau of Labor […]
Home prices are continuing to rise but at a slower pace according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices. The S&P Dow Jones Indices are released monthly and compare annual rate gain for the 10-City and 20-City Composites. The current indice, released at the end of April, shows the rate of gain in February at 13.1 […]
One of the products which is provided to our Premium Level members only is our Key Market Indicators. Our KMI analysis is showing an improving (more positives than negatives) situation, especially in the flat rolled steel markets. An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers […]
The following is an abridged version of the Chicago Federal Reserve statement plus our own graphical analysis. The Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update. An explanation of the index is provided at the end […]
Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI. HARDI stands for Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and The Institute for Trend Research (ITR), an economic forecasting company, work together to gather economic data to provide a forecast to the HARDI members located in the United […]
Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI. HARDI stands for Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and The Institute for Trend Research (ITR), an economic forecasting company, work together to gather economic data to provide a forecast to the HARDI members located in the United […]
Will 2014 be a breakthrough year for construction? That was the premise of a webinar presented by Reed Construction Data paneled by Bernie Markstein, US chief economist at Reed Construction Data; Kermit Baker, chief economist at the American Institute of Architects (AIA); and Ken Simonson, chief economist at Associated General Contractors of America (AGC). The […]
We were somewhat in disbelief when we analyzed the March housing data this week but on checking the formulas in our spread sheets it appears that our first impression was correct. Table 1 shows building permits and housing starts data for Q1 2014 compared to Q1 2013. Total construction starts were down by 3.6 percent […]
The following article is one that we would normally just provide to our Premium Level members. We thought that those who have Executive level members would be interested in some of the detail we are providing our Premium Level members. If you have questions about Premium Level membership please feel free to contact our offices: […]
Bank of America Merrill Lynch gave their quarterly global steel outlook on April 8. BofAML predicts demand for finished steel in China will grow 4.4 percent in 2014. Chinese crude steel production is expected to increase 4.6 to 815 million tons. The outlook is for a trend of slowing but positive growth. Despite mill closings […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its construction put in place (CPIP) data on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. February data was released on April 1st. Total Construction: February expenditures were $63.369 billion which breaks down to $46.647 B of private work, $14.945 B state and locally financed and $1.777 B […]
New residential sales of single-family homes dropped in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 440,000 according to estimates by the Commerce Department. Sales were 3.3 percent below the revised January rate of 455,000 and 1.1 percent below the February 2013 estimate of 445,000. Inventory was still tight at 189,000, a 5.2 month supply. […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty five, a decrease of one as the Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index has been put on hold until late April to enable […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their third estimate of real GDP today, (March 27th) for Q4 2013. The third is normally the final estimate though there sometimes are revisions further back in time. GDP rose in the fourth quarter by 2.6 percent at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, this was an upward revision […]
Sales of new single-family homes dropped in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 440,000 according to estimates by the Commerce Department. Sales were 3.3 percent below the revised January rate of 455,000 and 1.1 percent below the February 2013 estimate of 445,000. Sales on a three month moving average were 445,000, up slightly […]
The consumer confidence index increased by 4.0 in March driven by an increase of 7.0 in the expectations component and a decline of 0.6 in the consumer’s view of the present situation. The three month moving average (3MMA) of both the present view and expectations components increased which caused the 3MMA of the composite to […]
Existing home sales were quiet in February, declining a scant 0.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.60 million in February from 4.62 million in January, reported the National Association of Realtors. Year-over-year sales fell 7.1 percent from the same period in 2013. The February pace was at its lowest rate since July […]
In February total building permits exceeded total starts by 38,000 units which would seem at first glance to be a good sign. However digging down into the data reveals a much more complex situation in this market. The two sub sectors, single and multi-family units are behaving differently. Single family permits were 12,000 less than […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The Industrial Production (IP) index was reported as 101.63 for February, this was the fourth consecutive month for the index to exceed the pre-recession peak of September 2007. The three month moving average, (3MMA) of the index expanded by 0.62 month on […]