The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board fell sharply in April as March was revised upwards slightly. In April the composite value which combines the view of the present situation and expectations fell from 101.4 to 95.2. The view of the present situation fell from 109.5 to 106.8 but the big change […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 105.22 for March, down by 0.64 from February. The three month moving average (3MMA) was 105.63, down by 0.34 from February. January was the highest value ever of the 3MMA at 106.11. The Y/Y growth rate […]
The graphic below shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through the 1st Q of 2015. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. GDP grew 7.3 percent y/y in both the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2014, declined to 7.0 percent in […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide at Steel Market Update. An explanation of the index is provided at the end of this piece. This is normally an article reserved for […]
Global steel production in 12 months through March totaled 1.626 billion tonnes with a capacity of 2.2 billion tonnes which yields a utilization for the 12 month period of 73.9 percent. China accounted for 50.3 percent of global production in March. Asia as a whole, including India, accounted for 68.3 percent of global production. Production […]
Starts in March rose by 14,000 to 926,000 after the revised decline of 164,000 in February. This data is seasonally adjusted by the Census department and the monthly numbers are annualized. The three month moving average, (3MMA) declined from 1,020,000 in February to 969,000 in March (Figure 1). The projection to 1.6 million in 2018 […]
The following is a global forecast provided by the IMF this week. We provided an abridged statement from the IMF which is then followed by our Steel Market Update data analysis and comments about the future of global and domestic steel demand through 2020. This is a piece normally reserved for our Premium members but […]
Steel import levels continue to increase at ports around the U.S. SMU spoke with several ports and all but one expects imports to grow, not decrease, in the coming months. Out on the West Coast, the Port of Los Angeles is still working through congestion brought about by the recent labor dispute and chassis issues. […]
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for January showed home price growth slowing from year ago levels. The National Home Price Index registered a 4.5 percent annual gain for the 12 months ending in January 2015 as compared to a 10.5 percent increase in January 2014. Month over month gains for the 10- and 20-city indexes […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. February data was released on April 1st. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In effect […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board increased in March and February’s disappointing decline was lessened by an upward revision. In March the composite value which combines the view of the present situation and expectations rose from 98.8 to 101.3. The view of the present situation fell from 112.1 to 109.1 (but […]
Seaborne freight is picking up slightly primarily due to the South American grain export season, according to the March 25 MID-SHIP Report. The Baltic Dry Index continues to be at a very low level. The BDI registered 448 points on March 25, climbing to 596 as of March 27. The BDI tracks dry-bulk rates based […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 105.8 for February a slight increase of 0.08 from January. The three month moving average (3MMA) was 105.87, down by 0.17 from January which was the highest value ever and the ninth straight month where the […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide at Steel Market Update. An explanation of the index is provided at the end of this piece. This is normally an article reserved for […]
Sales rose for both existing and new homes in February. However, buyers are facing availability issues and escalating pricing. The National Association of Realtors reported existing home sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.88 million in February from 4.82 million in January. Sales were 4.7 percent higher than a year ago. Tight […]
Housing starts in February declined by 184,000 annualized to 897,000 from 1,081,000 in January. This data is seasonally adjusted by the Census department. The three month moving average, (3MMA) fared much better declining to 1,020,000 from 1,059,000 which was a blip in a steadily improving trajectory, (Figure 1). This was the sixth consecutive month that […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment reported that 295,000 jobs were added in February, the January result was revised down by 18,000. The three month moving average, (3MMA) of gains through February was 288,000. This job recovery is now seen to be much stronger than was the case in the mid-2000s […]
The following article is normally produced just for our Premium level members. We are sharing the information today with all of our readers. The article is written by Peter Wright, consultant to Steel Market Update, Gerdau and the State of Wyoming. Peter, who is a metallurgist as well as market specialist, is also one of […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
Hot rolled prices continued lower this week with the CRU down $9 to $508/ton with HRC futures following suit. Q2 has been trading around $510/ton with March trading as low as $503/ton – $13 lower than the week prior. The second half of 2015 is reasonably higher with Q3 and Q4 both trading around $535/ton. […]
Sales of new residential single-family homes declined just 0.2 percent in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 481,000, according to estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development. Sales were 0.2 percent below December’s revised rate but 5.3 percent higher than January 2014. The annual sales rate was […]
The Consumer Confidence Index as reported by the Conference Board declined in February after a very strong increase in January. In addition, the January results were revised upwards. In February the composite fell from 103.8 to 96.4, the view of the present situation fell from 113.9 to 110.2 as expectations fell from 97.0 to 87.2. […]
Global steel production in 2014 totaled 1.627 billion tonnes with a capacity of 2.2 billion tonnes which yields an average utilization for the year of 74 percent. China accounted for 51 percent of global production in 2014. Asia as a whole, including India, accounted for almost 70 percent of global production. Production in January on […]
Sales of existing homes fell to their lowest rate in nine months in January. Sales dropped 4.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.82 million according to the National Association of Realtors. The sales decline was widespread, affecting all regions in the U.S. “January housing data can be volatile because of seasonal influences, […]
Home prices increased slightly in December according to data from the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, climbing 4.6 percent year over year in the National Home Price Index. The increase was slightly less than November’s pace of 4.7 percent. On a monthly basis, both the 10- and 20-City Composites reported increases of 0.1 percent in December. […]
Steel Market Update last Apparent Excess/Deficit forecast for flat rolled steel shipments and inventories called for shipments in January to exceed 2014 levels by 2 percent. Total flat rolled shipments for the month of January 2015 were projected by us to be 2,415,000 tons. In actuality, shipment levels were 1.6 percent higher than January 2014 […]
Housing starts in January declined by 22,000 annualized to 1,065,000 from 1,087,000 in December. This data is seasonally adjusted by Census department. The three month moving average (3MMA) fell to 1,056,000 but is still on a steadily improving trajectory, (Figure 1). This was the fifth consecutive month that the 3MMA of starts exceeded a million […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 257,000 jobs were added in January. As we were analyzing this date we noticed massive historical revisions and had to go back to January 2000 (15 years!) before were confident we had caught them all. In the 12 months of 2014, job creation […]
The following article is normally produced just for our Premium level members. We are sharing the information today with all of our readers. The article is written by Peter Wright, consultant to Steel Market Update, Gerdau and the State of Wyoming. Peter, who is a metallurgist as well as market specialist, is also one of […]