Tag: Hot Rolled Futures

What has happened since the August hot rolled (HR) settlement ($767 per short ton)?

On Sept. 15, the UAW went on strike at three plants, one of each of the Big 3. On Sept. 22, the UAW expanded its strike to 38 more GM and Stellantis plants. Since Sept. 15, the HRC futures curve has rallied $60-75 in the November – February futures months. The reason why there has been this breakneck rally is because, uh, well, um. I have no idea. I am as shocked by it as perhaps you are, frankly.

Hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures prices fell after our last column published Aug. 17, putting in recent lows around $25-$30 per ton lower than the week prior

The hot rolled (HR) forward curve has rebounded following the Labor Day weekend. The index this week surprised a few folks as it barely slid double figures and remains above $750 per short ton (ST).

Spot hot rolled (HR) prices continued their gradual decent, losing almost $100 per short ton (ST) in August.

Over the first three months since Flack started contributing a futures column to SMU, the first sentence has started with some version of “What a month!”

Over the last month, SMU columns have referenced significant fluctuations in the Hot Rolled Coil Futures market as participants sift through the impact of several events, including some that are yet to be resolved.

The last article I wrote on Thursday, July 13, pointed to the surprising rallies in the August and September futures, while noting the August future trading to just below its multi-year down trendline.

The summer cycle has brought more focus around the uncertainty of where HR prices are headed.   Spot indexes continue to bleed lower despite price hikes from sheet mills. Market talk is of still lower prices as the gap grows between the slow-moving index versus expectations for HR future prices declines. (The index likely reflects smaller, […]

The US HRC Futures market has been on a roller-coaster ride since our last update (green). In early July, the front month futures contracts surged significantly as news of Steel Dynamics Inc.’s (SDI’s) Sinton, Texas, mill outage trickled through the market (blue).

In the past two months, the US Midwest Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) futures market has experienced significant fluctuations. The initial decline in prices led to destocking and low inventory levels. However, recent price increase announcements by mills halted the downward trend and even reversed it temporarily.

Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active […]

Editor’s note: SMU Contributor Michael D’Angelo is a researcher and trader at Marex. In his role, Mike performs fundamental and quantitative analysis, which directly leads to actionable trading/risk management strategies across the base, precious, and ferrous metals derivative spaces. Prior to joining Marex, Mike received a BA in economics with a minor in finance from […]

Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active […]

Editor’s note: SMU Contributor Michael D’Angelo is a researcher and trader at Marex. In his role, Mike performs fundamental and quantitative analysis, which directly leads to actionable trading/risk management strategies across the base, precious, and ferrous metals derivative spaces. Prior to joining Marex, Mike received a BA in economics with a minor in finance from […]

Editor’s note: SMU Contributor Michael D’Angelo is a researcher and trader at Marex. In his role, Mike performs fundamental and quantitative analysis, which directly leads to actionable trading/risk management strategies across the base, precious, and ferrous metals derivative spaces. Prior to joining Marex, Mike received a BA in economics with a minor in finance from Princeton […]

Editor’s note: SMU Contributor Michael D’Angelo is a researcher and trader at Marex. In his role, Mike performs fundamental and quantitative analysis, which directly leads to actionable trading/risk management strategies across the base, precious, and ferrous metals derivative spaces. Prior to joining Marex, Mike received a BA in economics with a minor in finance from Princeton […]

Editor’s note: SMU Contributor Michael D’Angelo is a researcher and trader at Marex. In his role, Mike performs fundamental and quantitative analysis, which directly leads to actionable trading/risk management strategies across the base, precious, and ferrous metals derivative spaces. Prior to joining Marex, Mike received a BA in economics with a minor in finance from Princeton […]

Editor’s note: SMU Contributor Michael D’Angelo is a researcher and trader at Marex who has been active in the metals markets for two years. In his role, Mike performs fundamental and quantitative analysis which directly leads to actionable trading/risk management strategies across the base, precious and ferrous metals derivative spaces. Prior to joining Marex, Mike received […]

Editor’s note: SMU Contributor Michael D’Angelo is a researcher and trader at Marex who has been active in the metals markets for two years. In his role, Mike performs fundamental and quantitative analysis which directly leads to actionable trading/risk management strategies across the base, precious and ferrous metals derivative spaces. Prior to joining Marex, Mike received […]

The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled Hot-rolled (HR) futures participants market watch as they wait for signs that demand will return even as the dollar continues to […]

SMU contributor Bryan Tice is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. He and the firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients. They also provide process and analytical support. Before joining Metal Edge Partners, Bryan held commercial leadership roles involving purchasing, sales, and risk management […]

The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled This futures market has no direction currently, summing up the sentiment in hot rolled as of late. After a slight index […]

SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a Director at Cargill Risk Management, and […]

The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled Weekly changes in the value of spot HR have continued to drop an average of about $30/net ton but it should […]

SMU contributor Bryan Tice is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. He and the firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients. They also provide process and analytical support. Before joining Metal Edge Partners, Bryan held commercial leadership roles involving purchasing, sales, and risk management […]

The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled The HR futures market has been somewhat subdued this month, which is reflected in the price changes for July. Over the […]

SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a director at Cargill Risk Management, and […]

The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled After a brisk bout of futures activity in HR to close out the first half of 2022, we are experiencing much […]

SMU contributor Bryan Tice is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and the firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. Prior to Metal Edge Partners, Bryan held a variety of commercial leadership roles […]