Where will hot-rolled coil prices be at the end of the first quarter? That’s what we asked respondents to SMU’s latest survey. And the short answer is that they’ll be lower – but there is little consensus on just how much lower. We asked this: “Hot-rolled coil prices averaged $1,600 per ton at the end […]
Steel prices declined for the fourth consecutive month in December, following a year-long streak of continuous price increases. Hot-rolled coil prices declined $130 per ton throughout the month, with the SMU index averaging $1,600 per ton ($80.00 per cwt) as of Tuesday, Dec. 21 (SMU did not published updated prices on Dec. 28). The SMU Price Momentum […]
There’s surprisingly little consensus among market participants about where steel prices will be next year, even though 2022 is just around the corner. That’s a big departure from the last 12 months, when respondents to Steel Market Update surveys were roughly in agreement on where prices would be in the future – or at the very least […]
Steel Buyers Sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, has not reacted much to declining steel prices. Perhaps because prices remain well above historical averages even after big declines – more than 18% when it comes to hot-rolled coil – over the past three months. Indeed, 2021 was a record year for many companies, leaving […]
First the takeaway: Don’t overthink it on the way down. Prices are falling, like it or not. The good thing, demand is still good – so don’t let falling prices ruin your holidays. Now, let’s overthink it a little. We’ve seen some chunky declines in recent weeks: SMU’s hot-rolled coil price fell $70 per ton […]
It’s not just domestic steel prices that are falling rapidly, so too are prices abroad. Case in point: South Korean steelmaker Hyundai. Its latest offer for hot-rolled coil for February-March shipment to the West Coast is $1,450 per ton DDP to Los Angeles-area ports. That’s down significantly from prior offers of $1,600-1,640 per ton, according […]
California Steel Industries (CSI) has opened its February order book for flat-rolled steel and decreased prices significantly, according to market participants. That’s a big change from 2021, when the Fontana, Calif.-based slab converter often increased prices substantially from one month to the next. “Customers are reminded that prices are subject to change at any time […]
U.S. Steel expects lower adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter compared to the third but a strong 2022 thanks to contract prices resetting higher. The Pittsburgh-based steelmaker forecast fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.65 billion, down from adjusted EBITDA of $2.03 billion recorded in the prior quarter. The fourth-quarter dip represents a temporary slowdown in order […]
Producer prices expanded 1.4% in November, seasonally unadjusted, climbing consecutively since reaching the most recent bottom 20 months ago, reports the U.S. Labor Department. Persistently high prices in large part continue to reflect clogged supply chains, as manufacturers scramble to keep up with unusually strong consumer demand. The Labor Department said that its Producer Price Index […]
Steel prices fell hard again this week. While the absolute numbers – down $60 per ton ($3 per cwt) on hot-rolled coil – might appear shocking at first glance, one could make the case that we’re being conservative. The development shouldn’t have come as a surprise to those who lived through past ups and downs. […]
Steel sheet prices fell again this week as mills continued reducing prices on shorter lead times and increased competition from both imports and other domestic producers. Published lead times are as low as 3-4 weeks for hot-rolled coil, for example, and sources reported orders being processed early. Some said mill offers declined substantially over the […]
California Steel Industries (CSI) has closed its January order book for flat-rolled steel – but doing so took significantly longer than in past months. “We will contact you when we open the flat rolled order book for February 2022,” the Fontana, Calif.-based slab converted said in a letter to customers on Monday, Dec. 13. The company […]
On Friday, the Labor Department announced the inflation rate for November. At 0.8%, it was a tick lower than the October inflation rate of 0.9%. But most observers paid more attention to the annual rate of inflation. At 6.8% compared to prices one year ago, the inflation rate was the highest it’s been since 1982. […]
Total mill shipments of steel products edged up 1.4% in October to 8.619 million tons, following a 12.2% fall the month prior. Apparent supply slipped for the second straight month in October, down 2.2% on top of a 6.9% decline in September. October’s contraction marks the first month-on-month decrease in steel supply since apparent supply fell […]
Top U.S. and British trade negotiators appear to be nearing a deal to ease Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum from the United Kingdom. That’s according to recent statements from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) and the Commerce Department. Case in point: Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and UK Secretary of State […]
Sheet and plate prices fell across the board this week on shorter lead times, import competition and increased spot availability from domestic mills. Declines for hot-rolled coil were generally steeper than those for value-added products. And while certain mills are trying to hold the line around $1,800 per ton, EAF producers were reported to be […]
Looking for floor plate for Christmas? What about hot-rolled coil for the New Year? You’re in luck. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.’s steel mill in Riverdale, Ill., can get floor plate to you by Dec. 25, or just 18 days from now. And most of its sheet mills can get you hot-rolled coil by Jan. 1, or 25 days […]
I’m concerned we’ve all gotten a little too complacent with the idea that the price correction underway will continue to be gradual and that the new floor for hot rolled coil, whatever it is, will be four digits instead of the sub-$400-500 per ton floors that have characterized past downcycles. I’m not saying we’re headed […]
New orders, production, employment, and imports grew in November. But prices fell, and delivery delays increased on tightening backlogs. That’s the takeaway from the Institute for Supply Management’s latest Manufacturing Report on Business. ISM’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 61.1% in November, up 0.3 percentage points from October and indicating continued expansion in the overall economy for the […]
Steel prices declined for the third consecutive month in November, following a 12-month streak of continuous price increases. Hot-rolled coil prices declined $105 per ton throughout the month, with the SMU index averaging $1,770 per ton ($88.50 per cwt) as of Tuesday, Nov. 30. The SMU Price Momentum Indicator for hot-rolled coil was adjusted from Neutral […]
Published mills lead times are back, another sign that the steel market is returning to something resembling normal. Hot-rolled coil lead times, for example, are three to four weeks at some mills. That would be unremarkable in a normal market. But it is news after a year in which customers were either on allocation or […]
Steel buyers have gained a clear advantage when it comes to negotiating lower prices for hot-rolled coil and galvanized product. The change in pricing power toward buyers – following a year in which mills could name their price – comes as prices for most products are down, lead times are coming in, and inventories are increasing. SMU […]
Nucor has decreased steel pipe and tube prices by $100 per ton ($5 per hundredweight) effective immediately. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker said the drop applied equally to all new orders of hollow structural sections (HSS), pipe, mechanical tubing, and piling products. “This decrease is a result of normalized raw material costs and reduced transportation volatility,” […]
Spot prices might be wobbling. But mill balance sheets are as strong as they’ve ever been – and the cash will continue to pour in as 2022 contracts reset at substantially higher numbers. Here are two opposing trends I’m keeping an eye on: (1) whether mills will use their cash hoards to expand outside of steel […]
Sheet and plate prices are nearing parity for the first time in about a year, the latest sign of a market in flux. Below is a good way to visualize that trend. The chart below maps out the spread between sheet and plate going back to 2017. If we rewind to mid-November of last […]
Sheet and plate prices are nearing parity for the first time in about a year, the latest sign of a market in flux. Below is a good way to visualize that trend. The chart below maps out the spread between sheet and plate going back to 2017. If we rewind to mid-November of last […]
South Korea wants the U.S. to start negotiations to ease Section 232 on its steel exports as soon as possible, according to local media reports. The latest call came during meetings this week between U.S. trade officials and their South Korean counterparts in Seoul. “We once again delivered our stance and concerns regarding the Section […]
NLMK USA has resumed production at its electric arc furnace (EAF) sheet mill in Portage, Ind., after a planned maintenance outage, according to sources familiar with the matter. The outage at the mill – also known as NLMK Indiana – began earlier this month and had been expected to conclude in about a week. NLMK […]
Steel industry legend Peter Marcus died unexpectedly overnight following a brief illness. As word of his death spread across the steel industry, people reached out to SMU not only with memories of the man but also of the forecasts that made him famous (some would say infamous). “Peter Marcus was the ultimate scholar of the […]
Steel industry legend Peter Marcus died unexpectedly overnight following a brief illness. As word of his death spread across the steel industry, people reached out to SMU not only with memories of the man but also of the forecasts that made him famous (some would say infamous). “Peter Marcus was the ultimate scholar of the […]