ITR Economics continues to expect economic growth in 2018 followed by a mild recession in 2019. Concern over looming tariffs aligns with the HARDI/ITR quarterly forecast of macroeconomic deceleration in the U.S. economy late in 2018. Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI, the Heating, […]
We have been struggling with the decision as to when we should make an adjustment to the SMU Price Momentum Indicator. The issue that has been holding us back for the last week or two is the role the government is playing in the steel market, which muddies the water. We have made the decision […]
We have been struggling with the decision as to when we should make an adjustment to the SMU Price Momentum Indicator. The issue that has been holding us back for the last week or two is the role the government is playing in the steel market, which muddies the water. We have made the decision […]
The high price of galvanized steel has not dampened demand, at least not yet, say distributors of HVAC products, who report continued strong market conditions. “The market is somewhat back to normal, just at dramatically higher transaction prices,” commented one member of the Heating, Air-conditioning, and Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI), during the trade group’s monthly […]
The high price of galvanized steel has not dampened demand, at least not yet, say distributors of HVAC products, who report continued strong market conditions. “The market is somewhat back to normal, just at dramatically higher transaction prices,” commented one member of the Heating, Air-conditioning, and Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI), during the trade group’s monthly […]
Steel supply and pricing were the main topics discussed during the March 20 Heating, Air-conditioning, and Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) conference call. The Section 232 tariff on steel will go into effect on Friday, March 23, but HARDI members are already seeing an impact in the market. Steel prices are up $6/cwt since the last […]
SMU is receiving many requests for information and help regarding Section 232 exclusions and how to complete the process. We are attempting to assist when and where possible. Trade attorney Lewis Leibowitz is being very helpful when he has time. If you have specific legal issues that are outside of the scope of what we […]
Distributors of galvanized steel products to the HVAC industry are concerned that steel prices could experience a correction once President Trump finally announces his decision on Section 232. “I fear that a lot of 232 is already built into the pricing, and if the [trade action] is less than people were expecting, we could see […]
The latest HARDI/ITR quarterly forecast expects accelerated residential construction in the U.S. through the first half of the 2018. Construction will slow in the second half as the U.S. enters a “brief and mild macroeconomic recession in 2019.” Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI, the […]
Prepare for growth in the U.S. economy this year, says ITR Economics. The latest HARDI/ITR quarterly forecast predicts accelerated industrial production through the first half of the year and possible slowing in the second half. Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI, the Heating, Air-conditioning & […]
Demand is good heading into 2018, mill prices are on the upswing and trade cases promise to keep low-priced imports at bay. So why aren’t distributors who sell galvanized steel products to the HVAC market happier? Members of the Heating, Air-conditioning, and Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) reported that market conditions remain highly competitive despite price […]
The January import licenses are catching what one domestic mill callls, “Taiwanese January onslaught on Galvalume” as it trends toward 100,000+ net tons for the month (from less than 40,000 tons in December). This is what the mill had to say about pricing in general: “We keep moving our HR and CR up. Coated is […]
I have been pointing to the circumvention ruling as one of those “Black Swan” events that could come back to haunt the way importers do business. The section of the ruling that could potentially have the most teeth is the definition of what constitutes “significant transformation,” which allows substrate from one country to be converted […]
Economist Alan Beaulieu of ITR Economics spoke at the HARDI annual meeting where he advised HARDI wholesalers to expect good results during the first half of 2018. After that, there will be a slowing in the rate of growth that will continue into 2019. He told the group that 2019 could be a test year […]
As a result of this week’s preliminary circumvention ruling, Vietnamese traders here in the United States must pay the Chinese duties on the substrate used to produce cold rolled and CORE (corrosion resistant) steels if they are unable to prove the substrate used was from another country. Here’s the actual ruling: “The Department of Commerce […]
Late this afternoon, the U.S. Department of Commerce released their positive determination that Vietnam and China circumvented existing antidumping (AD) and countervailing duties (CVD) on cold rolled and corrosion resistant (galvanized/Galvalume) steels. This is a significant ruling and will create issues for some trading companies and steel buyers as the ruling goes back to November […]
I am sitting in the airport in Fort Lauderdale waiting on my flight to Las Vegas. I am on my way to attend the HARDI annual conference. If you are planning on and would like to meet with me during the conference, you can email or text me. My email address is John@SteelMarketUpdate.com and my […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce and its Secretary Wilbur Ross did something today that has not been done in the last 25 years–they self-initiated an antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) suit. In this case, it was against aluminum imports from China, but steel buyers should take note. The DOC already has a Section 232 […]
To our U.S. customers, welcome back from the long Thanksgiving Holiday weekend. I hope everyone had an enjoyable weekend with family and friends. Our website developers have been very busy working on our website going back to Wednesday of this past week. If you tried getting onto our website on Wednesday afternoon through Saturday afternoon, […]
We asked a question about Section 232 in last week’s flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire. The question was, “Do you think President Trump will invoke Section 232 and add duties on steel imports early next year on national security grounds?” Relatively few steel buyers elected to answer this question, which either suggests they don’t […]
Will the rest of the domestic steel mills announce new coating extras in first-quarter 2018, raising the price on galvanized steel? There was no clear consensus among members of the Heating, Air-conditioning, and Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) during their monthly conference call earlier today. Recent mill price announcements have stemmed the decline in galvanized prices, […]
As I move around the flat rolled steel industry, communicating with manufacturing companies, service centers, traders and steel mills, I am receiving mixed messages about the market. A good example is the HARDI steel committee conference call that was held earlier today. HARDI wholesalers, the companies who supply the HVAC mechanical contractors in the building […]
I am in Chicago this evening having conducted a shortened version of our Steel 101 workshop at the FABTECH conference. We had a good group of people who were totally unaware of Steel Market Update and, in many cases, were attending to gain more knowledge about the steels their company uses. We had energy people […]
Wholesaler/distributors who sell galvanized steel products to the HVAC market are waiting anxiously to see what happens to prices in the coming weeks. In the monthly steel conference call hosted today by the Heating, Air-conditioning, and Refrigeration Distributors International, HARDI members asked two key questions: Will the mills be able to collect the flat roll […]
Economic conditions are looking positive for fourth quarter and into 2018, according to the latest report from HARDI and ITR Economics. Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called the Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and ITR Economics, an economic forecasting company, work together to gather […]
Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI, which stands for Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and economic forecasting company ITR Economics work together to gather economic data to provide a forecast to the HARDI members in the United States and Canada. The information shared […]
Despite recent price increase announcements from major domestic mills and imports that are trending lower, wholesalers and distributors who sell galvanized steel products to the HVAC market don’t expect much change in lead times or pricing until there’s some resolution to the Section 232 and Vietnam circumvention trade actions pending in Washington. In the monthly […]
There is a wide variance between what the MSCI reported for flat rolled inventories this week and what Steel Market Update reported on Sunday. As we look at our numbers, the mega service centers tended to carry less inventories (based on months of supply, not in total tons) than the medium and smaller distributors that […]
How can domestic mills expect to increase prices when their lead times are so short and foreign steel is still so plentiful? In the monthly steel conference call hosted today by the Heating, Air-conditioning, and Refrigeration Distributors International, HARDI members commented on the contradictions in mill behavior that have left them confused and concerned about […]
A mild recession will impact residential and nonresidential construction in 2019, predicts the HARDI/ITR July quarterly report. Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called the Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and ITR Economics, an economic forecasting company, work together to gather economic data to provide […]