Sheet and plate prices this week continued the downward trend they’ve been on for most of 2024. Some market sources predicted that a wave of spring maintenance outages would help to stabilize lead times and prices in the weeks ahead – especially should service center inventories, high at the beginning of the year, come down meaningfully.
A clear consensus has emerged among respondents to SMU’s latest steel market survey that hot-rolled (HR) coil prices will bottom this month or in April. Seventy-five percent of respondents to our latest survey think that prices will find a floor before May as the chart below shows:
Steel mill lead times shrunk by an average of 0.3 weeks, according to our latest market survey, now nearing levels last seen in September of last year.
Steel buyers generally found mills more willing to negotiate spot pricing on the products SMU surveys this week, according to our most recent survey data.
US hot-rolled (HR) coil prices have fallen further this week, working their way to $800 per short ton (st) on average – a mark not seen since late October.
US hot-rolled (HR) coil prices have fallen below $900 per short ton (st) on average for the first time since early November. SMU’s HR price stands at $875/st on average, down $65/st from a week ago and down $170/st from the beginning of the year.
Mill lead times for flat-rolled steel were mostly stable over the past two weeks. With several mills slow to come out of outages and upgrades, cold rolled and coated lead times have been holding up better than hot rolled.
The percentage of sheet buyers finding mills willing to negotiate spot pricing rose or remained relatively flat on the products SMU surveys, while plate slumped, according to our most recent survey data.
Sheet prices have fallen again this week on shorter lead times, higher imports, and potentially higher inventories. (We’ll see for sure when we release our service center shipment and inventory data next week.) I remember reporting almost exactly the same thing about a month ago and getting a fair amount of pushback. Not so much these days.
The pace of sheet price declines accelerated this week as steel buyers said that domestic mills were competing against each other while also coping with higher-than-expected import volumes. “They are getting rid of the fluff. When you can pit 2-3 mills against each other, the fat margins get cut,” one industry source said.
2023 was the third-lowest year for steel imports in the last decade, according to an SMU analysis of data from the US Department of Commerce.
Sheet prices fell across the board this week as SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price slipped below $1,000 per short ton (st) on average for the first time since November.
The Department of Commerce has adjusted the countervailing duty (CVD) rates on imports of corrosion-resistant (galvanized/Galvalume) steel from South Korea after an administrative review.
U.S. Steel swung to a loss in Q4'23 in its first quarterly earnings since the announced sale to Japan's Nippon Steel.
Steel mill lead times for sheet products saw substantial declines over the past two weeks, while production times for plate held steady during the month of January.
Steel buyers said mills were much more willing to negotiate spot pricing this week on all products SMU surveys, according to our most recent survey data.
Sheet prices were mixed this week, with hot-rolled (HR) coil unchanged but cold-rolled and coated prices down.
Steel Dynamics Inc. executives said the company’s Sinton, Texas, flat-rolled steel is now Ebitda positive.
What's being talked about in the US steel market this week?
Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) reported lower fourth quarter 2023 earnings on Tuesday but predicted good times ahead in 2024. The Fort Wayne, Ind.-based steelmaker posted a Q4’23 profit of $424.3 million, down 33.2% from a profit of $634.9 million in Q4’22 on sales that fell 12.3% to $4.2 billion.
Domestic sheet prices slipped again this week, marking the first week of consecutive declines for hot-rolled (HR) coil since September. SMU’s HR price now stands at $1,000 per short ton (st) on average, down $25/st from last week and down $45/st from the start of the year.
The slipping lead times for flat-rolled steel were not just due to the holiday slowdown, it seems, as production times for four out of five products contracted again this week.
Domestic buyers of steel sheet said mills were much more willing to negotiate spot pricing this week, according to our most recent survey data.
US hot-rolled (HR) coil prices fell noticeably this week for the first time since late September. SMU’s hot-rolled coil price now stands at $1,025 per ton on average, down $25 per ton from last week. Cold-rolled (CR) coil was unchanged at $1,325 per ton.
Hot-rolled (HR) coil prices remain in the holding pattern they've been in since mid-December, according to SMU pricing archives.
Steel mill lead times pulled back across the board this week but are still said to be at healthy levels, according to SMU's market survey this week.
The percentage of steel buyers saying mills were willing to negotiate spot pricing on the products SMU surveys was mixed this week.
Sheet prices were mixed in SMU’s first assessment of the market in the New Year.
All of the products SMU surveys notched an increase in the percentage of buyers saying mills were willing to negotiate spot pricing, with the exception of cold rolled, according to our most recent survey data.
US hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices were unchanged week over week (WoW) following a string of mostly upward moves dating back to late September.