Another eventful week in the physical and financial steel markets is coming to a close. Most importantly, this week provided complete clarity that, after months of waiting for a catalyst, we are now definitively in the early stages of a meaningful rally. The 3rd month future (currently the April contract) rose more than 8% for […]
It’s been an event-filled month in US ferrous derivatives markets since my last column for SMU. There’s been no shortage of writings and musing about the ongoing steel and aluminum tariffs proposed by the Trump administration. And steel and scrap futures markets have responded accordingly. CME HRC futures prices have risen, and the curve has firmed. The February 2025 HRC futures contract, now in the pricing period, has added $47 per short ton (st) since its contact lows on Jan. 20 to settle at $767/st today.
Since the publication of our last market update on Dec. 10, several notable developments have shaped the landscape
Midwest HRC indices have been stuck in a tight range since last summer with the weekly CRU Midwest HRC price spending the past 32 weeks between $656 and $714 per short ton (st). The rolling Midwest HRC future has been rangebound between roughly $650 to $800 since last June. The rate at which the price of HRC futures move over a certain period or “volatility” has compressed dramatically over the past few months.
The last six months have been littered with uncertainty and mixed signals, a choppy and rangebound market. Spot indices have largely held steady, despite the pressure from domestic mills pushing for higher prices on spot tons. This has provided a signal of a lack of upward momentum and little downside room based on mill costs. […]
US ferrous derivatives markets were largely quiet through the holiday period. Since the new year, however, we have seen a bit of a resurgence in interest as traders and sales staff return to their desks.
In the last article written for SMU, we looked at the rallies that followed both the 2016 and 2022 presidential elections, as well as the moves in the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.
After experiencing a rally ahead of the 2024 election, the nearby part of CME HRC futures complex has softened as we approach year-end. Meanwhile, the forward positions (second half of 2025) have remained supported and largely unchanged.
Since June, The US hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures market has been in a rare period of prolonged price stability, closely mirroring the subdued volatility seen in the physical market. Over the past five months, futures have been rangebound, with prices oscillating between a floor near $680 and a ceiling around $800. This tight range, highlighted in the chart, underscores a cautious market environment. The chart below shows the rolling 3rd month CME HRC Future.
Despite a higher settle today on CME hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures, the pattern over the past four weeks has seen nearby steel futures prices drift lower, while the back of the 2025 curve has remained supported.
After a relatively stable and boring September, CME hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures have been on the move lower thus far in October. Since Sept. 30, the November and December futures have declined $63 and $65, respectively, with the curve’s contango steepening.
CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores shares insight into the hot-rolled coil futures market.
CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores shares with SMU his analysis of the hot-rolled coil futures market.
This month’s column on the markets could be a response to the question of last month, “Are the forward curve prices on Aug. 7 high enough to price in trade case risks?" The market’s answer has been a pretty resounding YES so far, I think.
Cleveland-Cliffs and Nucor each raised their respective hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices this week. Since last Wednesday’s settlement, the Midwest HRC futures curve has rallied as much as $63 in the September future.
Summer is here, and a familiar sentiment has hit the hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures market. Prices continue to decline in both the spot market and the futures market, with expectations of sub-$800 prices for the remainder of the year.
A month ago, when we last presented this column, there was a surprising amount of optimism in the presumably imminent reversal of the downtrend in hot-rolled steel prices in the second half of this year.
For the first time in weeks, activity in the futures market broke out of the recent “front grinds lower” pattern to provide new insight into the dynamics of the steel industry.
Trading activity for the CME HRC futures contract has been sporadic so far in June, with a few days seeing transacted volumes exceed 25,000 short tons (st), but overall activity remains muted. This follows a pattern that emerged over the course of May.
Hot-rolled coil prices are known for their volatility. There are a variety of hedging strategies industry players have used to manage it, one of them being the use of HRC futures. However, some have been hesitant to dip in their toe, and their money, in futures and have preferred other approaches.
“One thing we know for certain, however, is that when we write our next column, things will have certainly shaken loose.” – Daniel Doderer, April 4, 2024. Above is a good reminder that whenever someone is “certain” of anything, you should probably look at that line of thinking with a healthy dose of skepticism.
2024 started with a $200 per short ton (st), one-week demon drop in the CME Midwest hot-rolled (HR) coil futures. Then, HR futures consolidated in the low $800s/st with the April future trading to as low as $770/st as the curve shifted into contango or upward sloping. A big move was expected, and a big […]
Over my years of observing the steel market, there's been a recurring belief that current market disruptions in either the physical spot market or steel futures are temporary anomalies, destined to fade, and that normalcy will soon return. However, the events of the first few weeks of 2024 served as a stark reminder that this expectation seldom materializes, and that the US steel market is still the most volatile steel market in the world.
Much discussion has centered on HRC futures and option liquidity. The perceived lack of liquidity is often used as a reason for not engaging in risk management, a profound folly in our opinion. Looking back over the last decade, the futures market has seen increased volume. The HRC futures volume in 2023 was 617% of 2013 numbers.
In the dynamic landscape of the steel futures market, a confluence of factors is shaping the current narrative.
After a quiet couple of weeks, the futures market has recently come to life over the last three days, and is starting to show some bullish signals.
The summer cycle has brought more focus around the uncertainty of where HR prices are headed. Spot indexes continue to bleed lower despite price hikes from sheet mills. Market talk is of still lower prices as the gap grows between the slow-moving index versus expectations for HR future prices declines. (The index likely reflects smaller, […]