The US Midwest premium continued to trade between 18.8–19.4 cents per pound (¢/lb) this week. There remains a host of macroeconomic and geopolitical risks in the current environment, but none have affected the short-term outlook for the premium. Current trading for April reached 20 ¢/lb which is on par with CRU’s current forecast for Q2’24. Dates closer to the end of the year have fallen to 21.2 ¢/lb.
There seems to be bit of high-stakes chicken going on in the domestic sheet market. Prices have been moving lower for most of the year, and our hot-rolled (HR) coil price on Tuesday fell below $1,000 per short ton (st) on average. Crossing that threshold does not seem to have resulted in a flurry of buying activity.
The recession many predicted did not materialize in 2023, leading industry experts in several key end-user markets for steel cautiously optimistic for 2024.
With rising steelmaking capacity and relatively flat demand, industry analysts are predicting lower prices for sheet products this year.
I’m writing these final thoughts from the JW Marriott in Tampa. And I’m looking forward to seeing some of you reading this in just a few hours at the opening networking reception of the Tampa Steel Conference. Nearly 550 people will be there – a new record for the event. If you’re looking for things […]
The Tampa Steel Conference is just a few days away. Here are some topics I’m looking forward to learning more about during the proceedings on Monday and Tuesday. For starters, we’ll have about a month of 2024 under our belt when we convene on Sunday. How does that compare to what we thought the start of the year would look like? And what’s the outlook for the balance of the year?
Metalformers remain positive about business prospects for the first quarter of 2024, boosted by reported growth in January.
This latest SMU steel market survey is a snapshot of a sheet market inflecting lower. A significant 43% of survey respondents said that the hot-rolled (HR) coil market has already peaked. Compare that to only 8% when we released our last steel market survey on Jan. 5.
CRU forecasts that global demand for steelmaking raw materials will fall month over month (m/m) between mid-January and mid-February. The major downward pressure on raw materials demand will come from China, where steel end-use demand will fall toward the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday (Feb. 10–17).
The LME aluminum 3-month price was moving further down on the morning of Jan. 5 and was last seen trading at $2,287 per metric ton (mt) as of this article’s writing, already down 6% from its recent peak. SHFE cash also concluded the first week of the year on a weaker foot. The cash contract […]
SMU doesn’t do forecasts. We leave that to our colleagues at CRU. But we’re pretty good at surveys, and we’ve got a great group of readers. That’s why we decided to ask you what’s in store for 2024. The results are below, along with some insightful comments in italics.
We started 2023 with HRC spot pricing around $700 per ton and the third-month future (March ‘23) trading at $800/ton. That same future eventually settled at $1,059/ton - a $259/ton swing. Today, spot pricing is just shy of $1,100/ton for HRC, and the third-month future (March ‘24) settled at $1,091/ton. The clear takeaway: a lot can change over three months. And while future contracts are a valuable tool for hedging, they are a terrible predictor of price.
The 2024 Tampa Steel Conference is coming up soon after the kickoff of 2024. One of the premier steel conferences in the US, it will be a great complement to our record-breaking SMU Steel Summit this past August.
The number of open construction jobs reached a record high in October as workforce shortages persist, the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) reported.
The LME Aluminum 3-month price is moving up again on the morning of Dec. 8 and was last seen trading at $2,157 per metric ton. The way the price increased first thing in the morning suggests a support may have finally been found, but resistance could hit quickly at $2,200 /metric ton. SHFE cash was […]
On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on a variety of subjects, including steel sheet prices, lead times, scrap prices, performance, purchasing, and demand. Rather than summarizing the comments we received, we are sharing some of them in each buyer’s own words. We want to hear your thoughts, too! Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included […]