Tag: forecast

Steel prices eased for both sheet and plate products this week, according to our latest canvass of the market

The CRU US Midwest hot-rolled (HR) coil index is a dominant and established price benchmark in the US. Many steel-buying contracts are linked to ‘the CRU,’ as it’s commonly called. But how does it work?

President Biden announced an increase in tariffs this week on Chinese EVs, semiconductors, batteries, solar cells, steel, and aluminum.

Our spot price is little changed this week after moving sharply lower last week on the heels of Nucor’s unexpected price cut. Here’s one thought on that trend: Nucor's weekly HR price (aka, its “Consumer Spot Price” or CSP) has to date functioned almost more like a monthly price.

What's the tea in the steel industry this week? Here's the latest SMU gossip column! Just kidding... kind of. Yes, some of the comments we receive in our weekly flat-rolled market steel buyers' survey are honestly too much to put into print. Some make us laugh. Some make us cringe. Some are cryptic. Most are serious. We appreciate them all. Below are some highlights from our survey results this week. Some of the comments that we can share with you are also included, in italics, in the buyers' own words, with minimal editing on our part.

In this Premium analysis we cover North American oil and natural gas prices, drilling rig activity, and crude oil stock levels.

CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat on Wednesday, May 15, at 11 am ET. You can register here. Note that the live webinar is free for all to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU members.

CRU principal analyst Ryan McKinley will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat on Wednesday, May 15, at 11 am ET. McKinley is instrumental in determining CRU’s benchmark hot-rolled (HR) coil price. He’ll discuss his role, his background in steel, and how the index works.

Hold-rolled (HR) prices held roughly steady this week after slipping for much of April. I don’t have any spicy quotes to offer about mostly flat prices. Besides, a lot of the questions I’ve gotten recently have been about demand. Some of you tell me that it’s still stable or improving. Others tell me that it’s suddenly dried up.

To the surprise of many — myself included — flat-rolled steel prices appear to be in a holding pattern… again. This is not familiar territory for hot-rolled (HR) coil, at least not over the past few years. Its pricing volatility (as my colleague Michael Cowden has noted in past columns) may rival the elastic moves […]

In this Premium analysis we cover North American oil and natural gas prices, drilling rig activity, and crude oil stock levels.

Metalformers expect economic activity to remain level over the next three months, according to the April Business Conditions Report from the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA).

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market chatter.

US light-vehicle (LV) sales rose to an unadjusted 1.44 million units in March, up 4.6% vs. year-ago levels, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported. The year-on-year (y/y) growth in domestic LV sales came in despite a 1.3% month-on-month (m/m) decline.

SMU latest' steel market survey paints the picture of sheet market that has hit bottom and begun to rebound. Lead times are extending again after stabilizing earlier this month. Mills are far less willing to negotiate lower sheet prices - even if there are still deals to be had on plate, according to the steel buyers we canvassed.

Metalformers are expecting business conditions to remain steady over the next few months, according to the March Business Conditions Report from the Precision Metalforming Association.

A container ship collided with the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore on March 26, causing it to collapse. This has blocked sea lanes into and out of Baltimore port, which is the largest source of US seaborne thermal coal exports. The port usually exports 1–1.5 million metric tons (mt) of thermal coal per month. It is uncertain when sea shipping will be restored. But it could be several weeks or more. There are coal export terminals in Virginia, though diversion to these ports would raise costs.

A temporary surplus of rebar on the West Coast is forcing CMC to alter the planned ramp-up of its Arizona 2 micro-mill, the company's leader said on Thursday.

US light-vehicle (LV) sales rose to an unadjusted 1.25 million units in February, up 9.6% vs. year-ago levels, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported. The year-on-year (y/y) growth in domestic LV sales was boosted by a 6% month on month (m/m) gain.

In this Premium analysis we cover North American oil and natural gas prices, drilling rig activity, and crude oil stock levels.

To the surprise of few if any, prices are in a holding pattern – a trend not seen since late December. The pause comes largely in response to a pricing notice blitz from mills late last week.

A weak start for sheet demand this year has continued to weigh on global prices. European demand outside of the renewable energy sector was weak enough that market participants said mills are likely to cut output further after several furnace restarts earlier in the year. In China, demand has also failed to pick up after recent holidays, and even government announcements of more stimulus measures during the country’s “Two Sessions” meetings failed to boost market confidence.

A Detroit area steelmaker this morning announced its offers for scrap for March scrap shipments. The drop in its offer prices were larger than most industry observes forecasted, especially for shredded scrap. Many in the scrap community had predicted that prime scrap would drop $40-50 per gross ton (gt) with shredded only down $30-40/gt. But other market participants were skeptical about these predictions given bearishness in ferrous markets, both domestically and abroad.

A clear consensus has emerged among respondents to SMU’s latest steel market survey that hot-rolled (HR) coil prices will bottom this month or in April. Seventy-five percent of respondents to our latest survey think that prices will find a floor before May as the chart below shows:

The strong resilience of iron ore prices has come to an end with the weak steel performance worldwide and significantly improved iron ore availability in China.

In the period between mid-February and mid-March, CRU forecasts global demand for steelmaking raw materials to change little from the previous month,but buying activity will improve towards the end of next month

US light-vehicle (LV) sales rose to an unadjusted 1.08 million units in January, up 2.8% vs. year-ago levels, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported. Despite the year-on-year (y/y) boost, domestic LV sales were down 5.6% month on month (m/m). On an annualized basis, LV sales were 15 million units in January, down from […]

What's the steel market talking about at present?

The US Midwest premium continued to trade between 18.8–19.4 cents per pound (¢/lb) this week. There remains a host of macroeconomic and geopolitical risks in the current environment, but none have affected the short-term outlook for the premium. Current trading for April reached 20 ¢/lb which is on par with CRU’s current forecast for Q2’24. Dates closer to the end of the year have fallen to 21.2 ¢/lb.

There seems to be bit of high-stakes chicken going on in the domestic sheet market. Prices have been moving lower for most of the year, and our hot-rolled (HR) coil price on Tuesday fell below $1,000 per short ton (st) on average. Crossing that threshold does not seem to have resulted in a flurry of buying activity.