President-elect Donald Trump continues to send shockwaves through the political establishment (again). And steel markets and ferrous scrap markets continue to be, well, anything but shocking. As the French writer Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr wrote in 1849, "The more things change, the more they stay the same." (I thought the quote might have been Yankees catcher Yogi Berra in 1949. Google taught me something new today.)
President-elect Donald Trump will officially retake the White House on Jan. 20. I’ve been getting questions about how his administration’s policies might reshape the steel industry and domestic manufacturing. I covered the tumult and norm busting of Trump's first term: Section 232, Section 301, USMCA - and that's just on the trade policy side of things. It's safe to say that we'll have no shortage of news in 2025 when it comes to trade and tariffs.
Another presidential election cycle has come to an end. If you’re anything like me, part of you is just happy you no longer need to unsubscribe or “text STOP to opt-out” from the onslaught of political text messages this cycle produced.
With the US presidential election decided, ‘wait and see’ has quickly turned into ‘we’re about to find out.’ Following Donald Trump’s victory, I had a chance to sit down with Kevin Dempsey, president and CEO of the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). He gave his thoughts on what he thought we might see in Trump’s second term in office, and what it means for steel.
Votes were still being counted when this column posted on Tuesday evening. And I’d be surprised if we know who the president will be by the time some of you are reading it on Wednesday morning.
Next week promises to be a big week for the country. Could even top the World Series (congrats to the Dodgers). As we all hold our breath to see what happens next, it’s a good time to reflect.
Nucor said it is seeking $740 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled (HR) coil this week, up $20/st from last week. USS, meanwhile, is shooting for up $30/st for sheet products in general. (USS did not announce a target price for HR.)
We all know the American news cycle moves pretty fast. Viral today, cached tomorrow. So it is with the US presidential election on Tuesday, Nov. 5. People have election fatigue. They've moved on to other things like planning holiday parties, debating Super Bowl hopefuls, or even starting to look forward to our Tampa Steel Conference in February.
U.S. Steel plans to increase sheet prices by at least $30 per short ton (st). That's something we haven't seen for a while.
SMU's hot-rolled (HR) coil price slipped this week to $685 per short ton (st) on average. We also adjusted our sheet momentum indicators to lower for the first time since July.
When a mapmaker constructs a map, it’s always to the contours of the land. Or sea. That is, the mapmaker doesn’t say, “Look, these rocks really don’t belong here, so I’m not going to include them in the harbor map.” Uncharted rocks, sink ships (along with loose lips).
We had an October surprise here at SMU on Wednesday. I was working from the CRU office in Pittsburgh, and the internet connection briefly went out. As luck would have it, that happened smack in the middle of a live Community Chat webinar. Fortunately, my colleague David Schollaert stepped in, Zekelman Industries CEO Barry Zekelman rolled with the punches – and the show went on. Could there be any more October surprises in store for us and for the steel market?
Everybody has an opinion about politics these days. More importantly for our readers, though, every business has a bottom line. A popular question in our most recent steel buyers survey asked how uncertainty around the upcoming US presidential election could affect that line.
I’m trying to make sure this is not a TL;DR Final Thoughts. As a journalism school professor once told me, ‘No one but your mom reads more than 1,000 words.’ Also, as the old adage goes, a picture is worth a thousand as well. With that in mind, below are a couple of charts that I think go a long way toward explaining how prices and lead times have been relatively stable despite concerns about demand.
It’s another week of big headlines for the world writ large – an expanding war in the Middle East, another potentially catastrophic hurricane – and not much going on in the world of steel prices. “Call me Stevie Wonder, I see nothing.” That’s how one service center executive described the current sheet market. There seems to be almost a competition among some of our Community Chat guests and contributors to outdo each other in flowery ways to say, “
Surprise, surprise. Forget Halloween, the trend this October is all around the unexpected. Known as the “October Surprise,” you never know what is in store for you in the month before a US presidential election. Still, if we pull back the dial back date-wise a little bit, a familiar theme has been added to the mix: kick the can.
Another day, another massive gap between the news and market sentiment. On the news side, we’ve got war in the Middle East. The devastation facing western North Carolina coming into tragic focus. And the outcome of the presidential election remains a coin toss, according to current polling.
There are markets where the headlines and the prices are both crazy. This does not appear to be one of them, at least not yet.
It’s officially fall. And here’s a funny thing about steel prices in the fall over the last few years – they tend to move in the opposite direction of the leaves. SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price averaged $676 per short ton (st) in September 2023. That figure increased to $1,035/st in December 2023, a gain of 53% percent. (You can follow along with our pricing tool.)
Cleveland-Cliffs is seeking $750 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled coil. That’s $20/st above where the steelmaker had been. It’s also $30/st above Nucor, which is at $720/st this week. We've seen prices increase incrementally this week. SMU's HR price, for example, stands at $690/st on average, up $5/st from last week. The questions now are whether a number well above $700/st will stick, whether other mills will follow Cliffs, and whether there is enough demand to support higher prices.
We got a little flack for adjusting our sheet momentum indicators to neutral last week. To be clear, we didn’t adjust them to lower. Part of the reason we moved them to neutral was because there are some unusual cross-currents in the current market. On the news side, you could make a case that there should nowhere to go but up.
We’re starting to see some impacts of the big trade case filed last week against imports of coated flat-rolled steel from 10 nations. Namely, we’ve heard that a range of traders have stopped offering material from Vietnam. An alleged dumping margin of nearly 160% will do that. Especially amid chatter of critical circumstances.
The phrase “political football” has been tossed around a lot lately. (Pun probably intended.) For the humble journalists at SMU who thought the week following Steel Summit would prove a quiet one… the news cycle had other ideas
Day one and two of SMU's Steel Summit 2024 are officially in the books. We covered a lot of ground, and the agenda sure did deliver.
Within the space of a few days, we'll all be leaving on a jet plane. That's not completely true. A couple of SMU staff in the Atlanta area will be driving to Steel Summit 2024. Still, the hour where we kick of conference is quickly approaching. In anticipation, we are providing one of our handy-dandy crosswords in honor of the event.
More than 1,400 of you are now signed to attend Steel Summit – which kicks off next week at the Georgia International Convention Center (GICC) in Atlanta. We are very close to beating last year’s record attendance. So, if you’re on the fence, help us be part of steel history again – register here!
Lead times for hot-rolled coil and plate have moved out a little, according to our latest survey data. Brett Linton has the details here. I think that might reflect some restocking and a host of fall maintenance outages – many of which are happening in September/October. But lead times aren't galloping away like some of the more bullish corners of the market might have hoped. And those for cold-rolled and coated products are largely unchanged.
The countdown is on! In less than two weeks, we’ll kick off the 2024 SMU Steel Summit. This year is poised to be the best attended yet. More than 1,350 delegates have already registered – so we’re within sight of last year’s record number of nearly 1,450. I’m looking forward to learning from executives across […]
I asked in a prior Final Thoughts where some of you thought Nucor’s weekly spot HR price would land. One opinion: $720 per short ton (st). That would allow the Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker to one up competitor Cleveland-Cliffs and to re-establish its position as a market leader.
Flat-rolled steel prices have begun inflecting up on the back of mill prices hikes over the past couple of weeks. It’s a notable shift after tags slid downhill for most of the year. (There was a slight bump upward in late March/early April before the decreases resumed.) And now, after reaching levels not seen since […]