We have been working on trying to get a handle on scrap prices and adjustments in the costs the domestic steel mills will have for scrap during the month of June. SMU sources advised us that with the exception of prime grades of scrap most mills cancelled their remaining orders at the end of the […]
Ferrous scrap negotiations have begun between the U.S. and Canadian steel mills with most mills expecting lower prices. One way we know if the mills believe prices will fall is they will cancel any remaining orders from May that have not yet been completed from their scrap suppliers in the hopes of being able to […]
Ferrous scrap price negotiations are beginning with at least one deal getting done in Detroit within the past few days at down $22 per gross ton. However, as one scrap dealer explained to us earlier today, scrap prices are all over the board. There are steel mills who are bringing furnaces back online and others […]
The past couple of weeks have been a bit brutal for the US hot rolled coil (HRC) forward curve. While the spot market is appearing to run out of steam the HRC forward curve has broken down particularly the second half 2014 periods and calendar 2015 periods. May and June have withstood this recent selling […]
Iron ore spot prices in China have been falling and may continue to decline to the lows last seen in September 2012 when prices for 62% Fe fines reached into the $80’s (currently trading at $97.5/dmt). Steel Market Update has been reviewing the relationship between iron ore and ferrous scrap prices using shredded scrap as […]
Shredded scrap prices were still volatile in some markets as it searched for a bottom in the Ohio Valley and elsewhere at the end of last week. Detroit was reported to be the first market to settle with the mills there paying $15 per gross ton less than the prior month paying approximately $380 per […]
March ferrous scrap exports totaled 1,466,528 net tons (1,330,413 metric tons) with Turkey, Taiwan, Korea, Egypt, and Mexico the top five countries receiving U.S. scrap. These countries received 69.3 percent of all scrap exports. Total March ferrous scrap exports were 11.1 percent higher than previous month but 32.3 percent lower than the same month one […]
The hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market has been trading sideways over the past couple of weeks, taking cues from the physical market that looks to have slowed its ascent. Trading volumes have been fairly average, with traders and hedgers seemingly more comfortable on the sidelines until a new catalyst sparks the market to break […]
Shredded ferrous scrap prices are now projected to be down $15 to $20 per gross ton in the Chicago market according to SMU sources. At the same time prime grades (like #1 busheling) are expected to tread sideways (remain the same as prior month). If, once the deals are completed, all runs true to the […]
With the various flat rolled indexes reporting hot rolled pricing approaching $680 per ton in the mill spot market we are quite close to the $685 announced by Nucor on April 4th and matched by a number of the domestic steel mills. The question now is will the mills attempt to move prices up to […]
The hot rolled futures market over the past week has consolidated gains on the nearby months. May and June have traded to a high of $685 and $680, reflecting optimism in continued short term strength in the physical market. The back end of the curve is not experiencing as strong buying interest, as the Q3 […]
Steel Market Update began this week with an article on Sunday evening titled, “This Could Be a Tumultuous Week.” Looking back over the past five days that title was an understatement. This week has been tumultuous times ten. Why? U.S. Steel can’t seem to catch a break. They now have steelmaking operations temporarily suspended at […]
The recent upturn in the physical market has continued to fuel the upswing in steel futures prices as nearby periods have surged this past week. The May and June HRC contracts have traded to highs of $660/ton while second half periods have traded up to $643. The nearby prices have improved over $40 during the […]
With the expected steel price hikes finally coming to fruition the futures market has reacted strongly as offers were lifted and bids take a step up. After months of a down trending physical market sentiment has taken a clear turn to bullishness. The nearby months (March and April) traded to lows around $615 last week […]
Early indications are for April ferrous scrap prices in the Midwest to rise once we enter the next round of steel mill negotiations with their scrap suppliers. Steel Market Update (SMU) scrap sources are pegging the potential increase at $10 to $15 per gross ton. Other industry sources have it as moving even higher. Scrap […]
Ferrous scrap exports totaled 898,156 metric tons (990,046 net tons or NT) for the month of January, a 42.7 percent decrease in exports from December 2013. This is a 41.4 percent decrease over the same month last year when tonnage was 1,689,288 NT. Global exports haven’t been this low since January of 2006 when they […]
The following article on the financial, hot rolled coil futures, busheling scrap futures and iron ore markets is written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC and our Managing Price Risk 1 and 2 instructor. Financial Markets: Today was not a good one, a repeat of last week when the market retraced on the back […]
The futures market stabilized this week as renewed buying interest has returned. It seems that the recent spot weakness is being shrugged off by most market participants as buyers are looking down the curve to add length. Recent history has shown us that waiting for the physical market to bottom is too late to pick […]
Scrap prices in Detroit, Carolinas and Alabama have settled lower for March delivery according to SMU sources. Detroit ferrous scrap prices were reported to be down $20 per gross ton while the Carolinas were down $15-$20 and Alabama down $15 per gross ton. The main issue continues to be the lack of a firm scrap […]
The following article on the status of the Asian ferrous scrap markets was written by Damon Sun of Daido International. Mr. Sun is a regular contributor to Steel Market Update and an active scrap trader into the Asian markets. Here is how he sees the ferrous scrap markets in Asia this week: Asian markets are […]
The hot rolled coil futures market took a leg down this week as offers down the curve became more aggressive. After weeks and months of a fairly static forward curve, this renewed downward pressure of the past few days has shaken up the market. The Q2 traded today as low as $623, the Q3-4 at […]
Steel analyst Charles Bradford of Bradford Research spoke at the Port of Tampa Steel Conference this past week. He presented a relatively upbeat analysis of the domestic steel industry. He began by referring to a recent McKinsey and Company report which basically said, “The steel industry has had it, it’s over. The industry doesn’t make […]
Transactions in the ferrous scrap market are beginning to become clearer and what scrap dealers are seeing is not making them happy. Prices in the Detroit market, which tends to be one of the first markets to settle, saw an across the board decrease of $30 per ton on all grades. Busheling and shredded prices […]
The busheling market started to take shape this week as buyers and dealers came into the market, with early indications to be in the mills favor. Initial reports are for scrap in the Midwest to be down $30-40 / ton depending on grade and location. It seems that weather constraints have had a more negative […]
On January 14, Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Higher to Neutral. This means we see steel market pricing at this moment as either in transition or moving sideways over the next 30 days. With ferrous scrap prices now weakening, lead times shortening and all of the available capacity back in […]
January 24th 2014. The Turkish Lira is in freefall. What does this mean for the US ferrous scrap industry? This is a hard question to answer because we don’t know what we don’t know. What we do know is that the Turkish Lira has declined by 20.1% against the US $ in the last 12 […]
As we approach the end of January the expectation is for the domestic steel mills to cancel any remaining ferrous scrap orders that the yards have been unable to ship due to the weather, shortage of trucks or rail cars or just due to the dealer(s) being unable to complete the order on time. The […]
Steel Dynamics reported solid earnings on Monday with Q4 2013 net income of $55 million on net sales of $1.9 billion, somewhat short of Q4 2012 net income of $61 million on sales of $1.7 billion. Full year income was $189 million, up from $164 million in 2012. Net sales for the year totaled $7.4 […]
January 24th 2014. The Turkish Lira is in freefall. What does this mean for the US ferrous scrap industry? This is a hard question to answer because we don’t know what we don’t know. What we do know is that the Turkish Lira has declined by 20.1% against the US $ in the last 12 […]
The busheling scrap market is starting to take shape, though it is still early in the month. Initial sentiment suggests that the market for prime scrap may be down around $20 / gt. With weakness in the export market as Turkish corruption problems, the weakening Lira and soft economy have prevented imports, additional material should […]