We have an unusual market. What Steel Market Update is seeing is confidence by most of the steel mills. They feel there may be some minor adjustments in spot pricing as a few mills jockey to maintain their order books. At the same time, most steel buyers are being supportive of the price levels we […]
Last week, Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our mid-April flat rolled steel market trends analysis. Over the course of the week we invited 670 individuals representing approximately 650 companies to participate in our survey. The breakout of the participants was a little different than what we have been seeing over the course of a number […]
Correction: In last Thursday’s issue of Steel Market Update we mistakenly referenced earnings from a previous period instead of the 1Q 2017 report. Here is what Steel Dynamics had to say in their announcement on April 19, 2017: FORT WAYNE, Ind., April 19, 2017 /PRNewswire/ — Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NASDAQ/GS: STLD) today announced first quarter […]
Steel Market Update is asked many times where we think flat rolled steel prices are heading. Our current SMU Price Momentum Indicator is at “Neutral” which means we believe the market to be in transition and, prices could move in either direction from this point. We adjusted our indicator just recently from Higher to Neutral […]
Scrap dealers are pointing at the order book at the domestic mills as one of the main reasons why ferrous scrap prices inched back after the domestic mills initially pushed for shred and obsolete grades to be lower by $30 per gross ton. The mills could not get enough dealers to fill their scrap order […]
April ferrous scrap prices continue to be in negotiation as the domestic mills try to drive down the buying prices while the dealers try to hold on because they know the mill order books are still good – especially on the sheet mills. We learned from one of our sources in the Ohio Valley the […]
At the end of March the domestic steel mills cancelled any open portion of their ferrous scrap orders for March delivery with their scrap suppliers. This is always the first sign of an expectation of a drop in ferrous scrap prices once the negotiations begin in earnest for April delivery. Even with the tight supplies […]
This is only our second ever write up of global scrap trade. In future we will report quarterly because we believe that to understand the gyrations of the domestic scrap market we should be aware of where the US stands as a global player. This data is not very current because some nations are slow […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel having been bouncing like the proverbial rubber ball over the past six weeks as they try to make sense of where steel prices are heading over the near term. Steel Market Update (SMU) asked those responding to our flat rolled steel market trends survey last week where they […]
Early indications (and we should put special emphasis on the word “early”) are for ferrous scrap prices to trend slightly lower on shred and obsolete grades while prime grades (busheling/bundles) are expected to trade sideways due to strong demand from sheet mills. In March, prices for prime grades of scrap rose $60-$65 per gross ton […]
Steel Dynamics expects a meaningful increase in first quarter profits. Earnings per diluted share are expected to be in the range of $0.77 to $0.81 compared to $0.08 per diluted share in Q4 2016 and $0.26 per diluted share in Q1 2016. In first quarter guidance comments, SDI attributed stronger results to higher shipments and […]
Flat rolled steel prices are reacting to the two $30 per ton price announcements made by the domestic steel mills over the past month. The culprit (or scapegoat depending on your perspective) has been the rapid rise in ferrous scrap prices which are the primary inputs for electric arc furnace (EAF) steel mills and is […]
Flat rolled steel order books have been helping push ferrous scrap prices higher for March delivery to the domestic steel mills. Steelmakers have paid $50 to $80 per gross ton higher prices than February for prime grades such as busheling and bundles. Sheet mills pushed their buying prices in order to get the supply of […]
On Friday of last week Nucor Plate Mill Group announced a $30 per ton price increase on carbon and alloy plate and $50 per ton on heat-treated plate. The increase was to be effective immediately. Today, ArcelorMittal USA also followed the Nucor lead with an increase of their own. A Nucor plate customer told SMU […]
We are still early in the negotiation process for ferrous scrap pricing for the month of February. The expectation is for much higher than originally thought (sideways to +$30) a couple of weeks ago. SMU scrap sources are advising the Detroit market settled today at up $40 per gross ton on obsolete and shred grades […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) has adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator to reference spot prices as moving higher from this point over the next 30 days. Our decision to move our indicator is due to the continued high prices for steel mill inputs, such as 62% Fe iron ore fines in China being sold at $91.50/dmt […]
The rumors about March ferrous scrap prices have been flying ever since prices rebounded early in February from the initial down $10-$30 per gross ton we saw in the early negotiations. As the month of February continued scrap prices rebounded and, in some cases, returned to levels seen in January. As we prepared for March […]
We are moving into another exciting week for the flat rolled steel industry. Ferrous scrap negotiations will begin this week and how they are resolved will determine whether flat rolled steel prices roar higher from here or wander around looking for a soft landing. We will be watching and listening for clues about scrap prices […]
Scrap, scrap, scrap, scrap and scrap…that is what everyone is going to be talking about for the next week to ten days. David Feldstein in tonight’s HRC Futures article suggested prime grades could go higher in March by as much as $80 per gross ton. I have read articles that suggest the numbers could be […]
A large flat rolled steel service center shot me a note late on Friday advising a steel mill had told them earlier in the day to expect a $40 per ton price increase as soon as Monday of this week. At the same time the customer was told if scrap prices in March increase by […]
The following article is the opinion of John Packard, Publisher, Steel Market Update. I haven’t gone back and reviewed the records as to how many times flat rolled steel prices moved higher after a quick run up followed by a stable to slightly down market for a couple of weeks. Probably less than the fingers […]
The following article is the opinion of Steel Market Update (SMU) founder and publisher, John Packard. There is a new kid in town, his/her name is Big River Steel. No other steel mills like BRS because they are taking market share and, well, everyone wants to keep all of their toys. Big River Steel Arkansas […]
The ferrous scrap markets have been all about doom and gloom up until the past couple of days. Obsolete grade and shredded scrap were reported trading down $25 per ton in Brazil. Prime grades were down $10 per ton. Our sources were telling us export prices were down and the exporters off the east coast […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) has been struggling to get a clear view of the current market situation as we attempt to identify which direction we see flat rolled steel prices going from here. We have been receiving mixed messages over the past two weeks and we have been advising our readers to remain vigilant and […]
SMU scrap sources are all telling us that the recent transactions with Turkey have “surprised” dealers, the net result may well be a much weaker domestic scrap market than anticipated as we move into February negotiations next week. A weaker scrap market, especially if it were to drop $35-$40 per gross ton would dampen price […]
Are cracks starting to develop in the floor of steel prices? Are any cracks a harbinger to a reversal of flat rolled steel prices? It is too early to tell. However, buyers and sellers of steel need to be aware of that the markets may be in the early stage of change. Since the beginning […]
On Friday, January 6, 2017, AK Steel became the first U.S. steel mill to increases flat rolled steel spot prices. The mill announced an increase of $40 per ton ($2.00/cwt) effective immediately on all flat rolled, which for them includes hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized steel products. This is now the fifth (5th) price […]
Ferrous scrap price negotiations for January were slow to develop but by late Thursday and into Friday prices firmed and deals between the domestic steel mills and the scrap dealers were getting done. The two largest scrap buyers, David J Joseph (Nucor) and Omnisource (Steel Dynamics), entered the market late during the week at $30 […]
Welcome back to any of you who managed to extend your New Year Holiday until the 9th of January. The year started slow but increased speed once we got toward the end of this past week. Ferrous scrap prices are up $30-$45 per gross ton and AK Steel has started the ball rolling with a […]
January scrap negotiations have begun between the domestic (USA & Canada) steel mills and their scrap suppliers. As one large scrap company put it, “Things are slow to develop today, but I’m anticipating some movement by day’s end. This market has been sort of like a junior high dance at this point, with the reluctant […]