Last week I wrote about the US loss in the Section 232 steel and aluminum trade dispute at the World Trade Organization (WTO). This week, the US suffered another loss—the dispute settlement proceeding under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on the Agreement’s rules of origin for automobiles. The United States has thus recently lost two […]
The United States lost a dispute in the World Trade Organization last month. This is hardly the first time. In this case, tariffs and other import restrictions on steel and aluminum imposed by President Trump in 2018 were found to violate WTO agreements. The United States argued that its invocation of “essential security interests” was […]
At the start of each year, CRU continues to feature top expectations and outliers for the year ahead. This annual list of expectations is a thought piece, meant to stimulate internal discussions, scenario analysis, and strategic planning around potential risks to the markets we cover. This 2023 edition covers six expectations and three potential outliers. […]
With 2022 now in the past, the door has closed on one of the most volatile years for the aluminum industry. Supply chain disruptions as a residual fallout from Covid-19 and elevated levels of geopolitical risk raised uncertainty throughout the value chain. The shift in import trends has also been a major topic and is […]
The US economy’s growth was even better than expected in the third quarter, the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said in its third and final review. Gross Domestic Production (GDP) accelerated to a 3.2% annualized pace in Q3. That’s an improvement from the previously estimated government reading in November, which showed 2.9% […]
US apparent steel supply ticked up 3% in October to 8.5 million net tons, according to data from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Recall that apparent supply had fallen to a 19-month low in September—so while levels increased in October, it represents the third-lowest figure recorded in […]
Total US mill shipments of steel products edged up in October, recovering slightly month on month (MoM), after falling in September to their lowest total year to date (YTD). Mill shipments have been fluctuating up and down all year with little consistency, and October was no different. October’s shipments totaled 7.65 million tons, a 0.9% increase […]
North American auto assemblies declined by 6.2% in November, reversing the nearly 3% increase in October. Last month’s assembly output was among the lowest totals year-to-date (YTD) and just 3.7% higher year-on-year (YoY), according to LMC Automotive data. Though the market remains supply-constrained due to ongoing parts and supply shortages, November’s downgraded production continued to […]
US steel export volumes eased further from September to October, falling 4% to 697,000 net tons, according to the latest US Commerce Department data. Exports are now at a nine-month low, with October being the third slowest month of trade over the past 20 months. Exports have trended downwards since peaking in March and April of this […]
In this Global Economic Outlook, we look ahead to 2023 and outline our top ten calls for the global economy. These include predictions on inflation, the war in Ukraine, electric vehicles and Covid-19 in China. No. 1: Global Growth Will Slow From 2022 We expect both the US and Europe to experience recessions over the […]
2022: A Year of Unprecedented Change and Volatility We entered 2022 expecting plenty of change in aluminum and the market delivered more than its fair share of twists and turns. There were 3 macroeconomic effects that rippled through the entire global economy: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent global energy prices soaring, as they “weaponized” their […]
Welded pipe imports from four nations will continue to face antidumping (AD) duties after determinations from US trade agencies. Circular Welded Carbon-Quality Steel Pipe from Oman, Pakistan, and UAE — Sunset Review Results Circular welded carbon-quality steel pipe from Oman, Pakistan, and the United Arab Emirates will continue to be subject to AD duties for at […]
The Biden administration has, from its early days, presented a “worker-centered” trade policy. Katherine Tai, the US Trade Representative (USTR), has used that term consistently. What does that mean exactly? The “worker-centered” narrative includes, as is common in most policy debates, addressing the disparate impact on minorities and the disadvantaged. When a factory closes, those […]
Steel market conditions might be tough for the balance of the year, but Stelco sees the early signs of better times in the first quarter. The Hamilton, Ontario-based integrated sheet producer is also keeping a keen eye out for potential distressed acquisitions, company executives suggested during an earnings conference call with analysts on Wednesday, Nov. […]
North American auto assemblies rose by 8.7% in October, rebounding from a similar decline in September. Last month’s assembly output was the third-best total year-to-date (YTD) and nearly 22% higher year-on-year (YoY), according to LMC Automotive data. Though the market remains supply-constrained due to ongoing parts and supply shortages, production in October continued to show signs […]
The London Metal Exchange (LME) consultation with industry has come and gone with no action. The Exchange on Friday, Nov. 11, published its response to submissions from the industry on the issue of Russian metals. As a refresher, the LME asked for opinion on three options: • Do nothing • Impose limits on the warranting of […]
Total US mill shipments of steel products were down in September, falling to their lowest total year-to-date (YTD). Mill shipments have been fluctuating up and down all year with little consistency. September’s shipments totaled 7.58 million tons, a 7.2% decline from August’s 8.18 million tons, and the lowest total since February 2021. Apparent supply also saw a […]
US apparent steel supply eased further in September, down 8% from August to 8.29 million net tons, according to data from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). As the lowest monthly figure since February 2021, this was a 19-month low. September supply was 10% below the average monthly rate […]
US steel export volumes shrunk 10% from August to September, according to the latest US Commerce Department data. 723,000 net tons of steel products exited the country during the month, now the fourth-lowest monthly export rate over the past year and a half. Recall that exports levels in August were at the third-highest monthly rate […]
This past week the Biden administration released a list of questions for the public on the four-year review of the Section 301 tariffs on China. The questions and the procedures in the review reveal quite a bit about where this investigation is going, and what policy choices will be coming out after the 2022 midterm […]
The Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum Just over a year ago, on Oct. 3, 2021, the EU and the US signed an agreement to negotiate on carbon intensity and global overcapacity in both steel and aluminum. This lofty goal seemed to have been trumped by the agreement that the US suspended Section 232 […]
The US economy posted its first period of growth for 2022 in the third quarter. Gross domestic production (GDP) accelerated to a 2.6% annualized pace for the period, temporarily stymying recession fears, according to the advanced estimate from the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The latest GDP reading follows two consecutive negative […]
US sheet prices continue to slide, and the weakness in the domestic market has buyers confident that they can get domestic suppliers to negotiate. For hot-rolled coil, imports have not been very advantageous relative to futures. There have been some workable offers for tandem mill products. But buyers have been more inclined to buy domestically or […]
The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled HR spot physical indexes have remained anchored just above the mid-$700/net ton area with one more week to go before the […]
North American auto assemblies declined by 8.7% in September after reaching their highest mark in nearly two years the month prior. Despite the lower output in September, production was a hefty 39.6% higher year-on-year (YoY) and still the third-best total year-to-date (YTD), according to LMC Automotive data. Though the market remains supply-constrained due to ongoing […]
Total US mill shipments of steel products were down in August, slipping to their second-lowest total year-to-date (YTD). Mill shipments have been fluctuating up and down all year with little consistency. August’s shipments totaled 8.04 million tons, a 0.9% decline from July’s 8.11 million tons. Apparent supply also saw a month-on-month (MoM) decline in August, down 1.3% […]
US apparent steel supply declined 3% in August to 8.98 million net tons, according to the latest US Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute data. This is the lowest figure since February 2022 and the second lowest figure in the past 16 months. August supply levels are 4% below the average monthly […]
US steel exports rebounded 8% from July to August, according to the latest US Commerce Department data. Just over 800,000 net tons entered the country during the month, now the third-highest monthly export rate seen in the last four years (behind March and April 2022). Exports on a rolling annual basis are now at a […]
We’ve spilled a lot of ink over labor contract talks between US Steel and the United Steelworkers (USW) union. That issue is no doubt important. But here are two more that are just as important, if not more so. And you should have both on your radar as you start this week. First is the […]
The S&P Global US manufacturing PMI — another measure of manufacturing — edged up to 52 in September, up from 51.5 in August, recovering for the first time in three months after reaching its lowest level in two years. Last month’s recovery was driven by renewed expansions in output and new orders, though operating conditions across […]