Iron ore spot prices in China have been falling and may continue to decline to the lows last seen in September 2012 when prices for 62% Fe fines reached into the $80’s (currently trading at $97.5/dmt). Steel Market Update has been reviewing the relationship between iron ore and ferrous scrap prices using shredded scrap as […]
Both Industrial Production (IP) and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 102.744 for April, with a three month moving average (3MMA) of 102.83. This was the fifth consecutive month for the index to exceed the pre-recession peak of September 2007. The 3MMA has […]
The Economic Policy Institute (EPI) and the law firm of Stewart and Stewart recently released its publication “Surging Steel Imports Put Up to Half a Million U.S. Jobs at Risk.” The publication was released in support of the domestic steel industry and their unions and contends that unfairly traded imports are costing the U.S. jobs […]
The finished steel stockists have been buying finished products the last two weeks. However, the stockists are still keeping very little inventory on a wait and see mode due to the iron ore price collapse (currently abt $102/dmt). The current finished product orders should keep the production smooth for the next 3 weeks in China. […]
The supply of all steel products in Q1 2014 was up by 5.9 percent from Q1 last year. Flat rolled was up by 4.5 percent and longs were up by 9.8 percent. The sources of this analysis are the Commerce Department trade statistics and AISI steel shipment data.The bad news is that imports of all […]
Apparent steel supply for March was 9,753,954 net tons, a 9.6 percent increase compared to the same month one year ago. This is due to an increase in domestic shipments and finished imports and a slight decrease in total US exports. The net trade balance between imports and exports was a surplus of 2,194,246 net […]
March ferrous scrap exports totaled 1,466,528 net tons (1,330,413 metric tons) with Turkey, Taiwan, Korea, Egypt, and Mexico the top five countries receiving U.S. scrap. These countries received 69.3 percent of all scrap exports. Total March ferrous scrap exports were 11.1 percent higher than previous month but 32.3 percent lower than the same month one […]
The Broad Index value of the US $ has been gradually strengthening for 18 months (Figure 1), which favors imports to the US and depresses exports. See explanation at the end of this piece. Table 1 shows the number of currency units that it takes to buy one US $ and the percent change in […]
The hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market has been trading sideways over the past couple of weeks, taking cues from the physical market that looks to have slowed its ascent. Trading volumes have been fairly average, with traders and hedgers seemingly more comfortable on the sidelines until a new catalyst sparks the market to break […]
The following is reprinted from AIIS March Export Press Release: March Important Canadian and Mexican Markets Show Strong Gains U.S. steel exports expanded significantly in March, though they remained below the levels of a year earlier. Following a dip in February, when many parts of the United States were still suffering the impact of a […]
The JP Morgan Global PMI was at a six-month low in April but indicated manufacturing remains in the expansion range. At 51.9 the score reflected weaker production and new orders. The PMI was negatively affected by the downturn in production and new business that followed an increase in sales tax in Japan. The US and […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their first estimate of real GDP today, (April 30th) for Q1 2014. GDP rose in the fourth quarter by 2.6 percent but declined to 0.1 percent in the first estimate for Q1 2014. Figure 1 shows quarterly results since 1990 with the IMF forecast through 2018. The Q1 […]
Financial Markets We are still in the testing of the highs mode, closing in the 1877.50 zone on S+P 500, not much different from a week back. Need to take the out the old high and test 1900 again, otherwise… The Fed tapered on the easing, paring the buying program back $10 bln /month again–think […]
This article is part of a longer article first published on Thursday, May 1st and is written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC and our Managing Price Risk II instructor: Steel It was a fairly quiet week in futures with 400 lots or 8,000 ST trading most of yesterday on the July date. […]
The following article published April 13, is one that we would normally just provide to our Premium Level members. We thought that those who have Executive level and Monthly membership would be interested in some of the detail we are providing our Premium Level members. If you have questions about Premium Level membership please feel […]
According to a note recently received from one of our active trading sources in Asia, iron ore traders are under pressure as port stocks hit 112.63 million metric tons and new orders for steel exports become more difficult due to anti-dumping sentiment against Chinese steel around the world. Our source told SMU late last week, […]
One of the products which is provided to our Premium Level members only is our Key Market Indicators. Our KMI analysis is showing an improving (more positives than negatives) situation, especially in the flat rolled steel markets. An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers […]
According to a note recently received from one of our active trading sources in Asia, iron ore traders are under pressure as port stocks hit 112.63 million metric tons and new orders for steel exports become more difficult due to anti-dumping sentiment against Chinese steel around the world. Our source told SMU late last week, […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released preliminary steel import census data for March and reported total steel imports at 3,218,914 net tons (NT). Compared to February, March imports are down by 2.0 percent or 66,960 NT. Compared to the same month one year ago, total March 2014 imports are up 25.2 percent or 648,510 NT. […]
Details on steel trade data out of China were released earlier this week regarding iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore during March were 73,960,000 metric tons (MT), an increase of 20.8 percent from the previous month and an increase of 14.6 percent from March […]
Chinese statistical data is always questioned for a number of reasons, not least is, “Is the data politically motivated.” Other suspicions arise because China gets their data out faster than any other major economy and the data is never revised. However at SMU we believe that in spite of these concerns what we have is […]
This month (April 2014) the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its report on petroleum reserves for 2012. Proved reserves are estimated volumes of hydrocarbon resources that analysis of geologic and engineering data demonstrates with reasonable certainty are recoverable under existing economic and operating conditions. Reserves estimates change from year to year as new discoveries […]
The Asian scrap markets is currently stable and predicted to slow down both regarding demand as well as pricing over the next few weeks. Mainly, summer time electricity curtailments are scheduled to take effect in early May. Currently: • China Fe63.% Indian Iron ore at about $116-117/dmt. Somewhat stable +/-$1/dmt currently• Asian FX rates have […]
Total shipments of sheet and strip steel products, including hot rolled, cold rolled and all coated products, were down by 3.5 percent YTD compared to the first two months of 2013. In the period December through February compared to the previous three months, the total tonnage was down by 2.3 percent. Comparing YTD shipments for […]
The Broad Index value of the US Dollar has been gradually increasing for 18 months (Figure 1) which tends of raise imports to the US and depress exports. The broad index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the U.S. Dollar against the currencies of a large group of major U.S. trading […]
Year to date scrap exports through February are down by 40.5 percent from the same period last year. Total YTD was 2,034,000 metric tonnes a decline of 1,387,000 tonnes. Figure 1 shows that all major purchasing nations were down on a three month moving average basis. Turkey and China contributed the most to the YTD […]
The following article is one that we would normally just provide to our Premium Level members. We thought that those who have Executive level members would be interested in some of the detail we are providing our Premium Level members. If you have questions about Premium Level membership please feel free to contact our offices: […]
Bank of America Merrill Lynch gave their quarterly global steel outlook on April 8. BofAML predicts demand for finished steel in China will grow 4.4 percent in 2014. Chinese crude steel production is expected to increase 4.6 to 815 million tons. The outlook is for a trend of slowing but positive growth. Despite mill closings […]
Apparent steel supply for February was 9,002,702 net tons, an 8.5 percent increase compared to the same month one year ago. This is due to an increase in finished imports and domestic shipments but a decrease in total US exports. The net trade balance between imports and exports was a surplus of 2,381,742 net tons […]
The American Institute for International Steel reported “February 2014 showed mixed to disappointing results for U.S. steel exports.” The following report is from an AIIS press release regarding exports of steel out of the domestic (US) mills during the month of February. Key to the data is NAFTA exports which, according to the AIIS, represent […]