The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q2 2014 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts last Friday. The annualized growth rate was revised up from 3.95 percent in the first estimate to 4.17 percent in the second estimate to 4.59 percent in this the third estimate. GDP is […]
Ferrous scrap prices for October, which a couple of weeks ago were being forecast to move sideways (no change), are now looking as though they will drop $10 to $30 per gross ton. The Midwest and Southeast are expected to see the least price movement while those areas associated with exports (such as the East […]
Armada Executive Intelligence released its monthly trends report that focuses on economic issues that are likely to have short and long term impact on business. The following is a summary of the important issues to watch in the coming months and year. Trend 1: U.S. Dollar Strengthening Banks around the world are taking their cue […]
Andre Marshall, an active futures trader and owner of Crunch Risk, LLC, provided the following recap of hot rolled futures, iron ore and scrap as well as some words regarding the financial markets and copper trading. Here is what he shared with SMU this evening: Financial Markets: Well today saw a pretty big drop in […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of August 2014, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in August were 74,880,000 metric tons, a decrease of 9.3 percent from the previous month but an increase of 8.5 percent […]
Earlier today one of the steel analysts shared the most recent world production data for the month of August. Chinese mills now produce 51.1 percent of all of the world”s steel. However, the Chinese markets are slowing and the question is what (or where) will the Chinese mills be able to ship steel by the […]
Industrial production (IP) and manufacturing capacity utilization for August 2014: Both of these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 104.12 for August, a decline of 0.1 percent from July. This is another example where the individual month’s result can be misleading. The three month […]
At least once per month, Steel Market Update produces an update on the various currencies associated with steel trading nations. The following information is as of late last week and was produced by SMU contributing writer Peter Wright. Explanation of data sources: The broad index is published by the Federal Reserve on both a daily […]
For months there have been rumors circulating in the marketplace that the domestic steel industry was contemplating filing dumping suits against the Chinese on cold rolled and potentially a number of Asian countries on galvanized and/or Galvalume products. To date there have not been suits filed and the foreign steel continues to arrive at ever-greater […]
The supply of sheet products had strong positive growth in the 3 months period May – July year over year (y/y) led by cold rolled which was up by 19.4 percent, (Table 1). In total on this basis sheet products were up by 14.8 percent. The sources of this analysis are the Commerce Department trade […]
In the first seven months of 2014, total ferrous steel scrap exports totaled 8,828,815 metric tons, down by 20.6 percent from the same period in 2013. In the single month of July exports were 1,248,330 tons, down from June’s volume of 1,270,041 tons. May had by far the highest tonnage of the year, the July […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of July 2014, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in July were 82,520,000 metric tons, an increase of 10.7 percent from the previous month and an increase of 12.8 percent […]
Apparent steel supply for July was 10,588,648 net tons, the highest figure Steel Market Update has in its recorded history back to January 2010. Steel Market Update calculates apparent steel supply by adding domestic shipments and finished US imports and subtracting total US exports. July supply represents a 1,383,999 ton or 15.0 percent increase compared […]
Steel Market Update featured Timna Tanners, Metals & Mining Analyst, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, and John Anton, Director of Steel Services, IHS Global, at a luncheon presentation at the recent Steel Summit. The topic was commodity and steel forecasts and consolidation of the industry. As usual the two disagreed on some topics and sparked some […]
Scrap dealers were a little surprised by the end of this past week as ferrous scrap prices remained stable instead of rising $10 per ton as many had anticipated. Steel Market Update wanted to understand what happened that resulted in a sideways market and here is what we learned from one of our East Coast […]
AIIS, Falls Church, VA. September 5, 2014 — Steel exports continued to trend downward in July, slipping 3.3 percent to just over 1 million net tons. While exports to Canada were virtually unchanged from June to July at 536,892 net tons, and the amount of steel sent to Mexico increased 7.4 percent to 366,732 net […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty five, the Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index is still on hold to enable the staff to complete a major re-vamp of the […]
The August ISM Purchasing Manufacturing Index increased 1.9 points to a reading of 59.0, its highest reading since March 2011. Survey respondents report business is strong but expressed concern over geopolitical issues. New orders and production each increased 3.3 percent to 66.7 and 64.5, respectively. The new orders index was the highest seen since April […]
Global manufacturing conditions were relatively unchanged in August, increasing to 52.6 on the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI from 52.4 in July. The US continued to show strong domestic and foreign demand. The Eurozone and the UK weakened in August with the Eurozone registering its lowest PMI since July 2013. Japan rebounded while manufacturing conditions […]
This week will be the last week we will use the old USS extras in our .060″ G90 galvanized index and cost calculations. The extra is changing from $3.00/cwt to $3.45/cwt. Please make a note of this. Before the end of this week we will revise our Price Estimator on the website to incorporate the […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) had been hearing that we should expect sideways scrap prices as we move into September. However, over the last couple of working days the signals are now pointing toward a strong sideways to slightly higher tilt to ferrous scrap pricing. We have heard numbers could go up as high as $10 […]
The following article about Futures trading is from Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk, LLC. Andre will be one of our speakers at our 4th Steel Summit Conference as he speaks to the influence Chinese futures trading has on commodity prices. He mentions iron ore trading (China) in the article below: OK, so we’re at […]
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has just released data on global oil production for 2013. The global total was just over 90 million barrels per day (bpd). The Middle East and North America produced 27,170,000 and 19,285,999 bpd, respectively. The United States was the world’s top oil producer at 12,302,000 bpd followed by Saudi Arabia […]
American Iron and Steel Insitute (AISI) President and CEO Thomas J. Gibson spoke about currency manipulation at a press conference at the City Club in Cleveland, Ohio on Thursday. American steel producers are “under attack from surging imports benefitting from unfair trade practices—like currency manipulation,” said Gibson. Gibson was joined by former Missouri Governor Matt […]
Explanation of Data Sources: The broad index is published by the Federal Reserve on both a daily and monthly basis. It is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of a large group of major U.S. trading partners. The index weights, which change over time, are derived […]
Early indications, based on steel import license data, are suggesting August steel imports will once again exceed 3.5 million net tons and could go as high as 4.0 million tons. The high so far this year was May at 4.033 million net tons. May 2014 was also the highest import level seen since prior to […]
In the week of August 2nd the four week moving average (4WMA) of raw steel production as reported by the AISI exceeded 1,900,000 tons per week, for the first time since June 16th 2012, (Figure 1). However, capacity utilization at 79.2 percent (4WMA) is still nowhere near where it was before the recession. Capacity is […]
In the 1st half of 2014, scrap exports totaled 7,580,485 metric tons, down by 23.5 percent from the 1st half of 2013. In the single month of June exports were 1,270,041 tons, down from May’s volume of 1.549,070 tons. May had by far the highest tonnage of the year, the June volume was in line […]
Total shipments of sheet and strip products including hot rolled, cold rolled and all coated products were down by 0.6 percent year to date (YTD) compared to the first half of 2013. In the second quarter of 2014 compared to the first quarter, the total tonnage was down by 0.7 percent and comparing Q2 2014 […]
The American Institute for International Steel (AIIS) reports steel exports to NAFTA partners decreased in June but were offset by exports to other countries, particularly Brazil. The AIIS Statement on June 2014 steel exports is reprinted for your convenience below: Falls Church, VA. August 7, 2014. Exports of U.S. steel held steady in June, […]