Global manufacturing continued to expand for the 23rd successive month according to JP Morgan and Markit. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI registered 52.2 in October, unchanged from September. “The global PMI continues to signal 3-4% annualized gains in manufacturing output as we head towards year-end,” said David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered has been increased by one this month to thirty six. We have added the price of coking coal FOB the Australian East Coast to the raw […]
Today’s hot rolled coil and ferrous scrap futures article is written by Bradley Clark, Director of Steel Trading at Kataman Metals. The market seems to have bottomed out with the CRU coming in at $640 yesterday. Positive sentiment has outweighed any negatives in the market with AK Steel recently announcing a price hike of $20/ton […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q3 2014 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Thursday. The annualized growth rate in the third quarter was 3.50 percent which was down from 4.51 percent in Q2 but still exceeded most analysts’ expectations. GDP is measured and reported in […]
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) reported net earnings of $34.9 million for its fourth quarter ending August 31, 2014. Net sales increased 12 percent year over year to $1.9 billion. For the full fiscal year 2014, net earnings were 115.6 million on net sales of 7 billion. In comparison, FY 2013 net earnings were 77.3 million […]
Esmark Inc has confirmed its interest in acquiring all the assets of Serbian government-owned steel facility Zelezara Smederevo, a producer of steel, hot-rolled and cold-rolled products, and tin plate-coated products serving customers in Central Europe. Esmark Inc. has formed Esmark Europe to lead mill operations, finance, and commercial sales if the bid is successful. During a […]
As expected, the Russian hot rolled tonnage won’t be missed for very long as Brazil, Turkey and other countries look to fill the void. The upside for buyers is the replacement mills produce a superior product to what was coming in from Russia. At the moment we are being advised by current Russian buyers that […]
MID-SHIP Group reports that the two biggest factors impacting the dry cargo freight market right now are U.S. and South American agricultural products and Chinese imports and exports. Expectations for strong exports of agricultural products are high but not much has hit the export market yet. Iron ore imports into China have slowly started to […]
Paul Lowrey of Steel Research Associates was discussing the size of the market segments with SMU back in September during our Steel Summit Conference in Atlanta. He was making sure that we were aware that the energy markets are now the largest steel consuming segment of the steel industry, especially if you take into consideration […]
Everyone is aware of the high level of flat rolled imports in 2014 – especially cold rolled and coated products. So, where does 2014 rank on a historical basis? It is on pace to be the third highest year on record. We have 8 months of actual import data on the books. August year-to-date flat […]
Figure 1 shows historical gas and oil prices since January 2000. The daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate fell below $100 in August and by October 14th was down to $81.72, the latest daily figure available from the Energy Information Administration, (EIA.) Brent closed at $86.36 on the same day. The EIA has calculated […]
US pipe producers filed dumping and countervailing duty petitions on Line Pipe against producers in Korea and Turkey, alleging dumping margins of 16 percent against Turkey and from 58 percent to 221 percent against Korea (the alleged CVD margins are not known or not published at this time). This comes relatively shortly after the trade case […]
The following article was produced by SMU contributing writer Peter Wright for our Premium level members. However, we felt that the current strengthening trend of the U.S. dollar is important for all of our readers to understand as it is impacting both commodity and steel prices and will continue to do so in the future. […]
We are in a very interesting market as many factors are influencing domestic scrap and steel prices. We discuss currency issues in tonight’s issue as the appreciating dollar means less competitive exports out of the United States but it also makes foreign steel imports more attractive to buyers. We have falling iron ore (which is […]
Following the post-recession recovery, shipments of hot rolled steel from US mills to domestic locations have been trending in a range for three years. Shipments of hot dipped galvanized sheet and strip declined strongly in Q2 through Q4 2012 and have climbed slightly in 2014. Cold rolled shipments have shown little direction for almost two […]
Contributing writer, Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC, provides a glimpse at the financial, copper, steel (hot rolled coil), iron ore and scrap markets for our readers. Mr. Marshall is well known within the futures community and is the instructor for our Managing Price Risk I & II workshops. Financial Markets: Rethinking Island Mentality The […]
In the first eight months of 2014, scrap exports totaled 10,404,531 metric tons, down by 18.7 percent from the same period in 2013. In the single month of August exports were 1,575,716 tonnes, this was the highest volume month of the year, beating out May by 26,000 tons. Figure 1 shows that the three month […]
Apparent steel supply for August was 10,252,449 net tons, down slightly from July which was the largest tonnage month since the beginning of the Great Recession. Apparent steel supply is calcualted by adding domestic shipments and finished US imports and subtracting total US exports. Note that our Premium member analysis breaks down apparent steel supply […]
Steel Market Update read an article from Reuters on Monday that referenced a CISA official who was quoted as saying that the Chinese steel mills will export less steel in 2015 than what they will end up exporting this calendar year. We asked one of our main trading sources in Asia, who trades iron ore […]
Below is an article on the Asian scrap markets from one of our contributing writers, Damon Sun of Daido International. The last few weeks were chaotic in the markets. Most Asian countries look to Taiwan for indications on market directions and a base for pricing. With the rapid decrease in prices in iron ore (abt […]
In mid-August, SMU reported on the high influx of steel at the Port of Houston and logistic problems with storage and transportation. According to Port of Houston data, steel imports continue to be dramatically higher than comparable levels in 2013. Year to date import of steel in August was 4,133,698 tons, 40.3 percent higher than […]
Below is a press release issued by The American Institute for International Steel (AIIS) titled “Steel Exports Show Monthly Increase, Yearly Decline” Falls Church, VA. October 7, 2014. Steel exports from the United States bounced back in August following a late spring-early summer dip. August exports increased 4.1 percent from their July level to total […]
The collapse of spot iron ore prices resulted in a surge in iron ore swaps, options and futures in September. Options hit the highest ever volume at 15.6 million tonnes followed by futures at 25 million tonnes according to TSI data. In total, over 62 million tonnes of futures and derivatives were cleared by exchanges […]
Our Price Momentum Indicator has been stuck in “Neutral” since the last day of June 2014. We are now entering our 4th month and hot rolled steel prices have barely budged from the center line (OK, there have been some mild gyrations but no clear cut path up or down during the past three months). […]
Global manufacturing growth slowed in September. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI eased to a 4-month of 52.2 maintaining the general rate of expansion seen throughout 2014. Meaningful growth was mostly limited to the U.S., however, along with improvements in Czech Republic, Ireland, Taiwan and Canada. Growth was stagnant in most of the rest of […]
According to The Steel Index iron ore spot prices have dropped to $77.50 per dry metric tonne (dmt) for 62% Fe fines CFR Tianjin Port, China. This is the 52-week low for ore trading which is suffering from a slowdown in the Chinese economy. Iron ore has been on a steady decline since the beginning […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q2 2014 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts last Friday. The annualized growth rate was revised up from 3.95 percent in the first estimate to 4.17 percent in the second estimate to 4.59 percent in this the third estimate. GDP is […]
Ferrous scrap prices for October, which a couple of weeks ago were being forecast to move sideways (no change), are now looking as though they will drop $10 to $30 per gross ton. The Midwest and Southeast are expected to see the least price movement while those areas associated with exports (such as the East […]
Armada Executive Intelligence released its monthly trends report that focuses on economic issues that are likely to have short and long term impact on business. The following is a summary of the important issues to watch in the coming months and year. Trend 1: U.S. Dollar Strengthening Banks around the world are taking their cue […]
Andre Marshall, an active futures trader and owner of Crunch Risk, LLC, provided the following recap of hot rolled futures, iron ore and scrap as well as some words regarding the financial markets and copper trading. Here is what he shared with SMU this evening: Financial Markets: Well today saw a pretty big drop in […]