The fall in hot rolled futures prices seems to have slowed with the CRU down only $6/ton this week compared to an $18/ton drop the week prior. The second half of the year seems to have stabilized with trades being done at $570-575/ton for Q3 and Q4. The near term remains softer with bids retreating […]
Steel imports continue to flood U.S. shores and were a priority issue for CEOs during earnings calls this month. Low cost imports are creating competition for market share as well as depressing prices in the carbon steel spot market. Nucor CEO John Ferriola summed up the current market condition: “The other major headwind is from […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of December 2014, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in December were 86,850,000 metric tons, an increase of 28.9 percent from the previous month and an increase of 18.4 percent […]
Turmoil continues in the global currency markets as the European Central Bank announced a quantitative easing program last week, S&P downgraded Russian debt to junk status yesterday, the Greek national election on Sunday will result in a strong resistance to EU mandated austerity programs and the Swiss removed the currency cap vs the Euro last […]
AK Steel CEO, James Wainscott, spoke to analysts this morning regarding AK Steel 4th Quarter and calendar year 2014 earnings. We have a separate article which speaks to their earnings. What we have done is to point on some of the highlights of the call from our perspective: AK Steel did a major reline of […]
The Chinese steel industry exported 70,823,201 metric tons (780,691,000 net tons) of steel products during calendar year 2014 according to the Chinese Customs Service. The largest exporting segment was sheet and plate where the Chinese steel mills shipped 32,791,085 metric tons (36,146,000 net tons) to countries outside of China. According to Chuck Bradford, of Bradford […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 106.51 for December a decline of 0.1 percent from November. The three month moving average (3MMA) was 106.13 which was the highest value ever and the seventh straight month where the growth of the 3MMA exceeded […]
The following article comes to us from one of our Asian scrap sources, Damon Sun of Daido International. The Asian scrap market is a bit quiet and continued slow downtrend as scrap metal pricing tries to find parity with iron ore. A rough calculation of scrap to iron ore is a ratio of 3.5 to […]
This is another article which generally goes strictly to our Premium level members. Steel Market Update looks at data in a number of different ways. We look at imports on a weekly basis and report on the trends for license data, we look at monthly data and how it relates to the prior month and […]
In the first eleven months of 2014, scrap exports totaled 14,251,000 tonnes (metric tons), down by 15.7 percent from the same period in 2013. In the single month of November exports were 1,347,000 tonnes, almost unchanged from October. Figure 1 shows that the three month moving average has been declining slightly for the last seven […]
With the higher value of the U.S. dollar versus other steel trading nation’s currencies, we are seeing exports of steel in November as down slightly over October. November steel exports totaled 953,828 net tons (865,299 metric tons), down 5.6 percent over October but up 1.6 percent from November 2013 (all products). Here is a breakdown […]
Apparent steel supply for the month of November 2014 is 9,637,349 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports and subtracting total US steel exports. November supply represents a 1,044,666 ton or 12.2 percent increase compared to the same month one year ago. This is primarily […]
I thought the “Letter to the Editor” which we shared earlier in this issue was quite telling. The New Year is shaping up to be different than the past couple of years. With the drop in input costs and the weak global steel market (and strong U.S. dollar) 2015 could end up being a very […]
Low scrap prices and declining exports took a toll on earnings results for Schnitzer Steel Industries. Export selling prices for ferrous scrap declined by $80 per ton, or 20 percent, while domestic prices dropped $60 per ton, or 15 percent. The declines were the steepest seen by Schnitzer since 2012. The company reported a net […]
The value of the U.S. dollar is having a major impact on commodity, scrap and steel pricing. The strengthening of the dollar is something that Steel Market Update is watching very closely. We are therefor going to increase the number of times we provide currency updates from once per month to every three weeks (and […]
Bidding has closed for Serbian steel mill Zelezara Smederevo with a decision due around February 1. Esmark Steel Group is considered the leading contender out of the 10 bids submitted to the Serbian government. The eventual buyer of the mill will be obligated to ramp up production of Zelezara’s second blast furnace to fifty percent capacity […]
Manufacturing growth across the globe slowed as 2014 drew to a conclusion. The December JP Morgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) registered 51.6 in December, down from 51.8 the previous month and its lowest level since August 2013. North America remained the primary driver of manufacturing growth for the world as the Eurozone and […]
We provided full year projected steel imports in tonight’s issue. Please be aware: 1) the November numbers are Preliminary Census and should be very close to accurate, 2) the December numbers are based on license data and there can be fluctuations in the Census and license data numbers. November is a good example. November license […]
The Chinese central government announced on Wednesday that it would remove the export rebate on certain boron-added steel products effective January 1, 2015. The move was anticipated by our sources in China however the impact of the move may be minimal and short-lived. Steel Market Update received the following information from one of our steel […]
Everyone wants to know how the steel industry did from our perspective over the calendar year 2014. We decided to take a look at the year using quarterly averages as a way of smoothing out the data and giving us a clearer picture of key data and commodity and steel pricing trends. As you can […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce updated the December 2014 steel import license data. As suspected the volume of requests dropped dramatically from the 4.0 million net ton pace we were seeing earlier in the month to 3.0+ million tons as of December 30th. December total steel imports (alloy and carbon) should be approximately 500,000 tons […]
The article below is normally reserved for our Premium level members, but due to our holiday publishing schedule, we decided to share it with all of our readers. If you are interested in receiving our Premium product you may contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com or (800) 432 3475. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the […]
Jawad Mian wrote, “The precipitous decline in the price of oil is perhaps one of the most bearish macro developments this year. We believe we are entering a “new oil normal,” where oil prices stay lower for longer. The reason oil prices started sliding in June can be explained by record growth in US production, […]
Production in November on a tons per day basis was 4.351 million tonnes, down from 4.411 in October. November had one fewer production day than October and the month’s total decreased from 136.363 million to 130.525 tons. Since January 2008 on average, November monthly production has decreased by 5.36 percent, this year November decreased by […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 106.66 for November an increase of 1.26 percent from October. The three month moving average (3MMA) was 105.75 which was the highest value ever and the sixth straight month where the growth of the 3MMA exceeded […]
The currency markets continue to be dominated by a strengthening dollar and a weakening of third world currencies in particular. Hyun Song Shin, who chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, gives a lot of thought to the implications of the current situation. In recent presentations at the Brookings Institution, Mr. Shin […]
The subject of how China is going to deal with their surging steel exports continues in earnest after the release of the most recent Chinese export data. As the graphic shows below, the Chinese steel mills have spent this calendar year flooding the world markets with their steel excesses. In November the Chinese steel mills […]
Steel exports have declined by 6.5 percent this year while steel imports have climbed nearly 37 percent, notes the American Institute for International Steel in their Statement on October 2014 Steel Exports published below. Falls Church, VA. December 12, 2014. Steel exports dipped from September to October and fell nearly 11 percent from a year […]
The following article is by Peter Wright for our Premium level members. We decided to share the article with all of our readers this evening as a way of providing an example of Premium level content and analysis to our Executive readers. Following the post-recession recovery, shipments of hot band from US mills to domestic […]