I thought the “Letter to the Editor” which we shared earlier in this issue was quite telling. The New Year is shaping up to be different than the past couple of years. With the drop in input costs and the weak global steel market (and strong U.S. dollar) 2015 could end up being a very […]
Low scrap prices and declining exports took a toll on earnings results for Schnitzer Steel Industries. Export selling prices for ferrous scrap declined by $80 per ton, or 20 percent, while domestic prices dropped $60 per ton, or 15 percent. The declines were the steepest seen by Schnitzer since 2012. The company reported a net […]
The value of the U.S. dollar is having a major impact on commodity, scrap and steel pricing. The strengthening of the dollar is something that Steel Market Update is watching very closely. We are therefor going to increase the number of times we provide currency updates from once per month to every three weeks (and […]
Bidding has closed for Serbian steel mill Zelezara Smederevo with a decision due around February 1. Esmark Steel Group is considered the leading contender out of the 10 bids submitted to the Serbian government. The eventual buyer of the mill will be obligated to ramp up production of Zelezara’s second blast furnace to fifty percent capacity […]
Manufacturing growth across the globe slowed as 2014 drew to a conclusion. The December JP Morgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) registered 51.6 in December, down from 51.8 the previous month and its lowest level since August 2013. North America remained the primary driver of manufacturing growth for the world as the Eurozone and […]
We provided full year projected steel imports in tonight’s issue. Please be aware: 1) the November numbers are Preliminary Census and should be very close to accurate, 2) the December numbers are based on license data and there can be fluctuations in the Census and license data numbers. November is a good example. November license […]
The Chinese central government announced on Wednesday that it would remove the export rebate on certain boron-added steel products effective January 1, 2015. The move was anticipated by our sources in China however the impact of the move may be minimal and short-lived. Steel Market Update received the following information from one of our steel […]
Everyone wants to know how the steel industry did from our perspective over the calendar year 2014. We decided to take a look at the year using quarterly averages as a way of smoothing out the data and giving us a clearer picture of key data and commodity and steel pricing trends. As you can […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce updated the December 2014 steel import license data. As suspected the volume of requests dropped dramatically from the 4.0 million net ton pace we were seeing earlier in the month to 3.0+ million tons as of December 30th. December total steel imports (alloy and carbon) should be approximately 500,000 tons […]
The article below is normally reserved for our Premium level members, but due to our holiday publishing schedule, we decided to share it with all of our readers. If you are interested in receiving our Premium product you may contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com or (800) 432 3475. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the […]
Jawad Mian wrote, “The precipitous decline in the price of oil is perhaps one of the most bearish macro developments this year. We believe we are entering a “new oil normal,” where oil prices stay lower for longer. The reason oil prices started sliding in June can be explained by record growth in US production, […]
Production in November on a tons per day basis was 4.351 million tonnes, down from 4.411 in October. November had one fewer production day than October and the month’s total decreased from 136.363 million to 130.525 tons. Since January 2008 on average, November monthly production has decreased by 5.36 percent, this year November decreased by […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 106.66 for November an increase of 1.26 percent from October. The three month moving average (3MMA) was 105.75 which was the highest value ever and the sixth straight month where the growth of the 3MMA exceeded […]
The currency markets continue to be dominated by a strengthening dollar and a weakening of third world currencies in particular. Hyun Song Shin, who chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, gives a lot of thought to the implications of the current situation. In recent presentations at the Brookings Institution, Mr. Shin […]
The subject of how China is going to deal with their surging steel exports continues in earnest after the release of the most recent Chinese export data. As the graphic shows below, the Chinese steel mills have spent this calendar year flooding the world markets with their steel excesses. In November the Chinese steel mills […]
Steel exports have declined by 6.5 percent this year while steel imports have climbed nearly 37 percent, notes the American Institute for International Steel in their Statement on October 2014 Steel Exports published below. Falls Church, VA. December 12, 2014. Steel exports dipped from September to October and fell nearly 11 percent from a year […]
The following article is by Peter Wright for our Premium level members. We decided to share the article with all of our readers this evening as a way of providing an example of Premium level content and analysis to our Executive readers. Following the post-recession recovery, shipments of hot band from US mills to domestic […]
Apparent steel supply for October 2014 was 10,954,832 net tons, the highest monthly figure we have seen since the beginning of the Great Recession. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic shipments and finished US imports and subtracting total US exports. October supply represents a 1,509,671 ton or 16.0 percent increase compared to the […]
The supply of sheet products had strong positive growth in the 3 months period August through October year over year being up by 12.4 percent and led by hot band which was up by 16.1 percent (Table 1). The sources of this analysis are the Commerce Department trade statistics and AISI steel shipment data. These […]
In the first ten months of 2014, scrap exports totaled 12,905,000 metric tons, down by 17.6 percent from the same period in 2013. In the single month of October exports were 1,337,000 tons. Figure 1 shows that the three month moving average has been fairly consistent for the last six months through October and continued […]
October steel exports totaled 1,010,089 net tons (916,338 metric tons), down 2.3 percent over September and down 10.9 percent from October 2013 (all products). Cut plate exports declined 16.1 percent from September to October to 108,527 tons, but were up 0.6 percent compared to levels one year prior. Exports of coiled plate were 39,950 tons in […]
Based on preliminary Chinese data, total steel exports from China were 9.7 million metric tons (10.7 million net tons) for the month of November, a 14 percent increase from the previous month and a 94 percent increase from November 2013 tonnage. This brings total 2014 exports to 83.6 million tons (92.2 million net tons). To […]
October ferrous scrap exports totaled 1,473,856 net tons (1,337,061 metric tons) with Turkey, Taiwan, Korea, Canada, and Saudi Arabia being the top five countries receiving scrap from the United States. These five countries accounted for 72.4 percent of all scrap exports. Total October ferrous scrap exports were 14.9 percent higher than previous month and 1.5 […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 321,000 jobs were added in November, October and September were revised up by a total of 44,000. The three month moving average (3MMA) of gains was the highest since May 2010 at 278,000. This job recovery is stronger than was the case in […]
The following article on the hot rolled futures market comes to SMU from contributing writer Bradley Clark, Director of Steel Trading for Kataman Metals. Hot rolled coil futures have been quite inactive the past week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. As activity picks back up, it appears the next move will be lower. The forward […]
With buying prices down by approximately $60 per ton over the past two months, we are seeing a lack of feedstock for shredded scrap across the country. The net result is shredded scrap prices are up $5 to $10 per gross ton compared to where they were in November in most regions east of the […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. The Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index which was suspended earlier this year was expected to be re-instituted this month but […]
It has now been five weeks (October 28th) since AK Steel became the first domestic steel mill to announce a price increase on flat rolled steel. The relatively modest $20 per ton move was, in many steel buyers’ opinions, meant to stem the decline in steel prices. At that point in time benchmark hot rolled […]
Manufacturing expansion slowed around the globe in November. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.8 indicating the slowest pace of growth in 15 months. New order growth posted a 16 month low as international trade languished. Commenting on the survey, David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: “The global manufacturing […]