Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI. HARDI stands for Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and the Institute for Trend Research (ITR), an economic forecasting company, work together to gather economic data to provide a quarterly forecast to the HARDI members located in the […]
The value of the U.S. dollar has been one of the main themes affecting commodities around the world, including steel prices. The Russian ruble collapses making their steel the cheapest in the world. They, in turn, put pressure on the Chinese (who already are having issues due to their massive over-capacity of steelmaking) who are […]
The piece below was published to our Premium level members earlier this week, but we would like to share it with our Executive level members as an example of what our Premium members have access to. This report goes into much more depth than our Apparent Steel Supply article published last Thursday. If you are […]
Net imports equals imports minus exports. We regard this as an important look at the overall trade picture and its effect on demand at the mill level. Figure 1 shows that net sheet product imports on a three month moving average (3MMA) basis in March continue to be almost double that which existed before the […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market to enable a side by side comparison and the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both supply and mill shipments of sheet […]
In the twelve months of 2014, scrap exports totaled 15,308,000 tonnes, down by 17.1 percent from the same period in 2013. In the first three months of this year exports were 3,254,765 for an annual rate of 13,019,060 tonnes. The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages for 2015 and […]
The monthly value of the Federal Reserve Broad Index of the US $ against our major trading partners is reported about one month in arrears. In one month through about April 12th this index weakened by 1.9 percent which was a sharp reversal from the previous seven month trend. The monthly BI is a “Real” […]
March steel exports totaled 896,027 net tons (812,863 metric tons), up 2.0 percent over February but down 13.8 percent from March 2014. Total March figures are below both the thee month moving average (3MMA, average of January 2015 through March 2015 figures) and the twelve month moving average (12MMA, average of April 2014 through March […]
According to the latest data released from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute, apparent steel supply for the month of March 2015 is 9,575,903 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports and subtracting total US steel exports. March supply […]
Nucor, SSAB, and ArcelorMittal USA have petitioned the Department of Commerce to overturn a suspension trade deal that excuses Russian producers of cut-to-length (CTL) steel plate from paying import duties. The three steel mills said increasing exports of low-priced CTL steel plate to the U.S. is injuring the domestic industry. A suspension agreement signed in […]
Global manufacturing fell to a 21 month low in April according to the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The composite index registered 51.0, down from 51.7 in March. “The April PMI shows a loss of momentum in global factory output in April, with production and new orders both decelerating,” commented Joseph Lupton, Senior Economist at […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of March 2015, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in March were 80,509,000 metric tons, an increase of 18.5 percent from the previous month and an increase of 8.9 percent […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first estimate of Q1 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Thursday The annualized growth rate in the first estimate of Q1 GDP was 0.2 percent down from Q4 2014 which came in at 2.2 percent. GDP is measured and reported in chained […]
The Trade Promotion Authority bill S.995, or “fast track bill” as it being called, passed the Senate Finance Committee last week by a vote of 20-6. The fast track portion gives the President the authority and guidelines to negotiate trade deals in exchange for a vote by Congress passing resulting trade agreements without amendment. The […]
Eight steel organizations across the world have united to address Chinese steel exports and overcapacity. In a letter to China, industry associations from North America, Latin America and Europe offered comments on China’s draft Steel Industry Adjustment Policy (2015 Revision) . The Policy is intended to realign the Chinese steel industry to market demand but […]
Latin America is China’s second largest market for steel exports, receiving 8.3 million tons of steel in 2014. Alacero, the Latin American Steel Association, was one of eight steel organizations representing steel interests in North America, Latin America and Europe to express concern over China’s “Steel Adjustment Policy 2015.” SMU asked Alacero to comment on […]
EUROFER, the European Steel Association, is among the eight steel organizations that united to present comments to the Chinese government on its Steel Industry Adjustment Policy 2015. SMU asked the organization provide their view on the Policy and the impact of Chinese steel exports on the EU steel market and industry. The following comments are […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 105.22 for March, down by 0.64 from February. The three month moving average (3MMA) was 105.63, down by 0.34 from February. January was the highest value ever of the 3MMA at 106.11. The Y/Y growth rate […]
The graphic below shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through the 1st Q of 2015. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. GDP grew 7.3 percent y/y in both the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2014, declined to 7.0 percent in […]
The energy markets, especially oil and natural gas, are major users of flat rolled steel and plate products. As oil prices have fallen the production of pipe & tube and related products for the energy segment of the economy have fallen significantly. This has had a major impact on hot rolled coil production and pricing. […]
The monthly value of the Federal Reserve Broad Index of the US dollar against our major trading partners is reported about one month in arrears. Through early March this index continued to strengthen and reached 94.686, after breaking 90 in December for the first time since July 2009. The monthly BI is a “Real” inflation […]
Manufacturing activity in New York was essentially flat in April. The General Business Index of the Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell 8 points to -1.19, dropping into negative territory for the first time since December 2014. The survey is published monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and is on based responses from […]
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Business Outlook was stronger than expected in April. The index for current activity increased from 5.0 in March to 7.5, beating economist expectations of a reading of 6. The index has been in single digits so far this year indicating only modest growth. The new orders index registered 0.7, a […]
U.S. senators are hoping to present a bipartisan trade promotion authority (TPA) bill to Congress this afternoon (April 16) that will “fast track” trade agreements. The TPA defines U.S. negotiating objectives and priorities for trade agreements and establishes consultation and notification requirements for the President to follow. A trade agreement would then be presented by […]
On Tuesday, April 14, China announced it will terminate antidumping and countervailing duty tariffs on grain-oriented electrical steel exports from the U.S. U.S. Senators Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Rob Portman (R-OH), who have been leaders in pushing for fair trade practices, applauded the decision. “This announcement is great news for Ohio steel producers like AK […]
The following is a global forecast provided by the IMF this week. We provided an abridged statement from the IMF which is then followed by our Steel Market Update data analysis and comments about the future of global and domestic steel demand through 2020. This is a piece normally reserved for our Premium members but […]
The following article is was provided to our Premium customers on Friday afternoon, and we felt it would be a good article to share with our Executive members as an example of what a Premium level membership has to offer. We also published Imports by Product, Port, and Country and our Market Survey Results to […]
The following article was released by ArcelorMittal this past week to the greater steel community. The article deals with the challenges that ArcelorMittal says are “eerily similar” to those seen in 1998 which resulted in the bankruptcy of several steel mills, including LTV and Bethlehem Steel. Steel Market Update has a separate article normally produced […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market to enable a side by side comparison and the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both supply and mill shipments of sheet […]