The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first estimate of Q1 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Thursday The annualized growth rate in the first estimate of Q1 GDP was 0.2 percent down from Q4 2014 which came in at 2.2 percent. GDP is measured and reported in chained […]
The Trade Promotion Authority bill S.995, or “fast track bill” as it being called, passed the Senate Finance Committee last week by a vote of 20-6. The fast track portion gives the President the authority and guidelines to negotiate trade deals in exchange for a vote by Congress passing resulting trade agreements without amendment. The […]
Eight steel organizations across the world have united to address Chinese steel exports and overcapacity. In a letter to China, industry associations from North America, Latin America and Europe offered comments on China’s draft Steel Industry Adjustment Policy (2015 Revision) . The Policy is intended to realign the Chinese steel industry to market demand but […]
Latin America is China’s second largest market for steel exports, receiving 8.3 million tons of steel in 2014. Alacero, the Latin American Steel Association, was one of eight steel organizations representing steel interests in North America, Latin America and Europe to express concern over China’s “Steel Adjustment Policy 2015.” SMU asked Alacero to comment on […]
EUROFER, the European Steel Association, is among the eight steel organizations that united to present comments to the Chinese government on its Steel Industry Adjustment Policy 2015. SMU asked the organization provide their view on the Policy and the impact of Chinese steel exports on the EU steel market and industry. The following comments are […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 105.22 for March, down by 0.64 from February. The three month moving average (3MMA) was 105.63, down by 0.34 from February. January was the highest value ever of the 3MMA at 106.11. The Y/Y growth rate […]
The graphic below shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through the 1st Q of 2015. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. GDP grew 7.3 percent y/y in both the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2014, declined to 7.0 percent in […]
The energy markets, especially oil and natural gas, are major users of flat rolled steel and plate products. As oil prices have fallen the production of pipe & tube and related products for the energy segment of the economy have fallen significantly. This has had a major impact on hot rolled coil production and pricing. […]
The monthly value of the Federal Reserve Broad Index of the US dollar against our major trading partners is reported about one month in arrears. Through early March this index continued to strengthen and reached 94.686, after breaking 90 in December for the first time since July 2009. The monthly BI is a “Real” inflation […]
Manufacturing activity in New York was essentially flat in April. The General Business Index of the Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell 8 points to -1.19, dropping into negative territory for the first time since December 2014. The survey is published monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and is on based responses from […]
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Business Outlook was stronger than expected in April. The index for current activity increased from 5.0 in March to 7.5, beating economist expectations of a reading of 6. The index has been in single digits so far this year indicating only modest growth. The new orders index registered 0.7, a […]
U.S. senators are hoping to present a bipartisan trade promotion authority (TPA) bill to Congress this afternoon (April 16) that will “fast track” trade agreements. The TPA defines U.S. negotiating objectives and priorities for trade agreements and establishes consultation and notification requirements for the President to follow. A trade agreement would then be presented by […]
On Tuesday, April 14, China announced it will terminate antidumping and countervailing duty tariffs on grain-oriented electrical steel exports from the U.S. U.S. Senators Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Rob Portman (R-OH), who have been leaders in pushing for fair trade practices, applauded the decision. “This announcement is great news for Ohio steel producers like AK […]
The following is a global forecast provided by the IMF this week. We provided an abridged statement from the IMF which is then followed by our Steel Market Update data analysis and comments about the future of global and domestic steel demand through 2020. This is a piece normally reserved for our Premium members but […]
The following article is was provided to our Premium customers on Friday afternoon, and we felt it would be a good article to share with our Executive members as an example of what a Premium level membership has to offer. We also published Imports by Product, Port, and Country and our Market Survey Results to […]
The following article was released by ArcelorMittal this past week to the greater steel community. The article deals with the challenges that ArcelorMittal says are “eerily similar” to those seen in 1998 which resulted in the bankruptcy of several steel mills, including LTV and Bethlehem Steel. Steel Market Update has a separate article normally produced […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market to enable a side by side comparison and the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both supply and mill shipments of sheet […]
According to the latest data released from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute, apparent steel supply for the month of February 2015 is 8,968,831 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports and subtracting total US steel exports. February supply […]
In the twelve months of 2014, scrap exports totaled 15,308,000 tonnes, down by 17.1 percent from the same period in 2013. In the first two months of this year exports were 2,026,675 for an annual rate of 12,161,050 tonnes. Figure 1 shows that the monthly average declined for three consecutive years, 2012 through 2014 and […]
Our scrap sources are advising Steel Market Update that the scrap markets in the Midwest have been slow to settle with only a few deals done as of Tuesday morning. The expectation by those involved in the Midwest ferrous scrap markets is that the transactions will be completed over the next day or two. Most […]
The U.S. steel mills saw exports for steel products fall during the month of February. The U.S. Department of Commerce released new information late last week regarding the exports shipped out of the domestic steel mills to destinations outside the United States. Based on their data, exports totaled 878,459 net tons (note the data is […]
Global manufacturing continues to expand at a slow and steady pace. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI registered 51.8 from 51.9 in February. Manufacturing growth has been sustained for twenty-eight consecutive months. “The March PMI surveys suggest that the global manufacturing sector continued to make steady progress, with rates of expansion in output and new […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
Last week a number of steel mill CEO’s testified before the U.S. Congress about the flood of steel imports and the need to protect the domestic steel industry. Separate from the CEO’s testimony, former Nucur CEO called for quotas to be implemented against foreign steel which he considered to be unfairly traded. Steel Market Update […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q4 2014 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Friday. The annualized growth rate in the third estimate of 4th quarter GDP was unchanged from the second estimate which was 2.2 percent but down from the first estimate which was 2.64 […]
March imports are trending toward another very large month. We expect that when the final numbers are released, the month will come in about 3.6 to 3.8 million net tons which would be in line with our 12 month moving average of 3.7 million net tons. Last March imports were 3.2 million net tons. Note […]
This month we will start with words from Armada Executive intelligence which sum up the present situation nicely: “Last week it was made abundantly clear just how sensitive the markets are to the discussions at the Fed. There was a perception that Janet Yelled was pushing an interest rate increase off to at least September. […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 105.8 for February a slight increase of 0.08 from January. The three month moving average (3MMA) was 105.87, down by 0.17 from January which was the highest value ever and the ninth straight month where the […]
Steel Market Update has learned that the U.S. government has sent a letter to the Chinese central government regarding the exports of steel out of the Chinese mills and the harmful impact those exports are having on the U.S. steel industry. We are learning that the Chinese government has advised the Chinese steel mills of […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), iron ore and financial futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and our Managing Price Risk I & II instructor. Our next Managing Price Risk II workshop will be held in Chicago at the end of April – […]