The flat rolled steel trading community has been hit and hit hard by the filing of antidumping trade suits on galvanized, Galvalume (zinc-aluminum) . As one trader put it to us earlier this week, “Business as usual has been blown up for the traders.” A number of traders spoke to SMU about the scope of […]
We have two data sources for this report. These are the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve daily broad index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. As of August […]
China made a surprise devaluation of its currency today to bolster its faltering economy. The 2 percent devaluation of the yuan will make imports to China more expensive but will make exports more attractive to international traders. The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) issued a statement today concerning today’s currency move by the Chinese […]
In the first six months of this year bulk scrap exports were 6,893,000 metric tonnes for an annual rate of 13,786,000 tonnes, down by 9.1 percent from the first six months of last year. The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages for 2015 and on the twelve month monthly […]
The first thing we need to talk about is the rumor that we have heard from multiple sources that there will be a trade case announced on hot rolled coil this week. Our sources are telling us the information is a couple of weeks old and may change but the date being suggested in August […]
The following report was produced by the American Institute for International Steel (AIIS) regarding U.S. steel exports out of the United States to other countries. At the end of the AIIS press release is a table produced by Steel Market Update with an analysis of both total and flat rolled steel exports. Falls Church, VA. […]
Global manufacturing was relatively flat in July. Increases in the Eurozone, North America and Japan could not offset contractions in Greece and Asia. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI registered 51.0, unchanged from June and continuing its weakest reading in two years. Overall manufacturing output remained in the positive, above 50, range for the thirty-second […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) received this Letter to the Editor from a steel trading company executive providing an opinion on the recent slew of antidumping trade suits on flat rolled steels: First of all congratulations to Dave Phelps for his comments. As the longtime president of AIIS he has personally seen many years of domestic […]
SMU previously published this article with incorrect graphics, the corrected ones are below. Our apologies for the mistake. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first estimate of Q2 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Thursday. In the big picture, the change (delta) in GDP is equal to the […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of June 2015, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in June were 74,960,000 metric tons, an increase of 5.8 percent from the previous month and an increase of 0.5 percent […]
Steel Dynamics expressed concern about imports during the company’s second quarter earnings call. “On the trade front, we’re pleased the ITC has confirmed the flood of unfairly traded imports of corrosion-resistant sheets deal has materially reduced our shipments, pricing and profitability. I believe in fair trade, but the U.S. has become a dumping ground for […]
U.S. West Coast and Gulf ports seem to be in pretty good operating condition right now. The Port of Houston received over 6 million tons of steel imports in 2014, making it a record year for the port. In a “normal” year Houston can expect to see 3.5 to 4 million tons annually. Our Houston […]
Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through Q2 2015. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. The growth of GDP was unchanged in the Q2 at 7.0 percent which was faster than the 6.8 percent median forecast of 39 […]
Steel Market Update recently received data from Bradford Research covering Chinese production, trade, and consumption of steel and steel related products for the first six months 2015. It probably won’t come as any surprise that steel consumption is falling in China while exports, especially for finished steel products, are up by over 30 percent compared […]
We have two data sources for this report. These are the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve daily broad index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. This month the […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
Net imports equals imports minus exports. We regard this as an important look at the overall trade picture and its effect on demand at the mill level. Figure 1 shows that net sheet product imports on a three month moving average (3MMA) basis in May, continue to be more than double that which existed before […]
According to the latest data released from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute, apparent steel supply for the month of May 2015 was 9,069,541 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports and subtracting total US steel exports. May supply […]
The following article is written by Spencer Johnson of FC Stone LLC. With six years of experience, Spencer provides his customers strategic and tactical advice on protecting themselves against commodity price volatility in the steel markets. Spencer will rotate weekly futures articles with Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC. Spencer can be reached at spencer.johnson@intlfcstone.com. […]
In the first five months of this year bulk scrap exports were 5,724,456 tonnes for an annual rate of 13,741,000 tonnes, down by 9.3 percent from the first five months of last year. The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages for 2015 and on the twelve month monthly average […]
AIIS, Falls Church, VA. July 9, 2015. Steel exports increased 3 percent from April to May, though they remained well below the level of a year ago. The United States shipped 870,099 net tons of steel in May, 16 percent less than the May 2014 total. Most of the growth resulted from a more than […]
Lisa Reisman, Founder and Executive Editor for Metal Miner, published their July basic metals forecast which includes zinc, aluminum, copper, lead, tin, etc. The July forecast is available to the public. Just click here to go to the Metal Miner site where you can download their full report. This is the last free report so […]
Global manufacturing in June slowed close to a two-year low according to the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The Index posted at 51.0 from 51.3 in May, but manufacturing output remained in expansion (above the neutral 50 point) for the 31st consecutive month. Manufacturing growth, on average, continued to grow in North America and Europe […]
Seaborne Freight The dry bulk market may have bottomed out in May and has been steadily creeping higher during June. The Baltic Dry Index closed at 823 on Friday, June 26. The BDI peaked on November 5, 2014 when the Index was at 1484 and dropped as low as 509 on Feb. 18, 2015. The […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), iron ore and financial futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and our Managing Price Risk I & II instructor. Here is how Andre saw trading over the past week: Financial Markets: On the S&P 500 we are […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q1 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Wednesday. The annualized growth rate in the third estimate was -0.17 percent down from Q4 2014 which came in at 2.2 percent. GDP is measured and reported in chained 2009 dollars and […]
The big picture is as follows: from the 2015 Article IV Consultation with the United States of America Concluding Statement of the IMF Mission May 28, 2015 (heavily abridged by SMU). “At current levels of the real exchange rate, the U.S. dollar is assessed to be moderately overvalued. As a result, the current account deficit […]
I was advised by the US Department of Commerce that they will announce tomorrow (Wednesday, June 24) whether they will “…initiate AD and CVD investigations of imports of corrosion-resistant steel products from China, India, Italy, Korea and Taiwan.” We will have a fact sheet from them outlining their decision and we will provide it to […]
Attorney Larry Friedman noted the “hockey stick” graphs when looking at the five countries listed as defendants in the coated steel antidumping petition. We wanted to take a new look at the five countries and the total galvanized and Galvalume shipments made during 2012, 2013 and 2014 and how 2013 and 2014 compared with the […]
A joint statement by eight steel trade associations calls for immediate action in addressing steel overcapacity and the increase in subsidized exports from China. The statement below has been issued by the following organizations: AISI, SMA, CSPA, SSINA, CPTI, Canacero, Alacero, Eurofer and the Turkish Steel Producers Assn and Brazilian Steel Institute. “There is a […]