Global manufacturing has been trending flat to downward for most of 2015. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI continued that trend in September with a posting of 50.6 from 50.7 in August. The PMI was the lowest it has been since July and has averaged 50.8 for third quarter. Any reading over 50.0 is considered […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) sources reported the domestic steel mills have canceled any remaining ferrous scrap tonnage that was not delivered during the month of September. This is normal when the mills believe that they will be able to negotiate lower prices for October delivery. As reported earlier this week, the expectation is for scrap […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q2 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Friday. In the big picture, the change (delta, Δ) in GDP is equal to the change in population plus the change in productivity, that is Δ GDP = Δ Population + Δ […]
Ferrous scrap prices continue to weaken due to sluggish demand at the domestic steel mills coupled with a lack of exports off the East Coast USA to Turkey. Turkish scrap prices have tumbled over the past thirty days, down $46 per ton or nearly 20 percent compared to last month. An 80/20 HMS mix is […]
The following press release came out late this afternoon and we caught it early this evening. The announcement is about the hot rolled trade cases and whether the US International Trade Commission (ITC) found enough evidence to determine that the probability exists that the U.S. steel industry was “materially damaged” by hot rolled exports from […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
The following article is written by Spencer Johnson of FC Stone LLC. With six years of experience, Spencer provides his customers strategic and tactical advice on protecting themselves against commodity price volatility in the steel markets. Spencer will rotate weekly futures articles with Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC. Spencer can be reached at spencer.johnson@intlfcstone.com. […]
Net imports equals imports minus exports. We regard this as an important look at the overall trade picture and its effect on demand at the mill level. Figure 1 shows that net sheet product imports on a three month moving average, (3MMA) basis at 718,000 tons in July continue to be more than double that […]
In the first seven months of this year bulk scrap exports were 7,809,000 tonnes for an annual rate of 13,387,000 tonnes, down by 11.6 percent from the first seven months of last year. The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages for 2015 and on the twelve month monthly average […]
SMU is seeing ferrous scrap prices in the Chicago area trading down $10-$15 per gross ton with HMS at $200-$210 per gross ton, shredded at $230-$235 per gross ton and busheling at $240-$245 per gross ton. We received a note from one of our main ferrous scrap sources late last week that we thought would […]
The following article on the futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and our instructor for our Managing Price Risk I and Managing Price Risk II workshops. Andre attended the SMU Steel Summit Conference on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week in Atlanta. Here are his comments about both the […]
Trade discussion at the 2015 SMU Steel Summit Conference brought a number of conflicting views. Well before the Trade Panel began their formal presentations on Tuesday, attendees at the conference heard a number of comments on imports, steel overcapacity and whether the trade cases that have been initiated will help or hurt the US steel […]
The article below is normally reserved for our Premium members, we felt it would be good to share with our Executive members also. We have two data sources for this report. These are the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of July 2015, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in July were 86,100,000 metric tons, an increase of 14.9 percent from the previous month and an increase of 4.3 percent […]
According to the latest data released from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute, apparent steel supply for the month of June 2015 was 9,373,498 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports and subtracting total US steel exports. June supply […]
Net imports equals imports minus exports. We regard this as an important look at the overall trade picture and its effect on demand at the mill level. Figure 1 shows that net sheet product imports on a three month moving average (3MMA) basis in June continue to be more than double that which existed before […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
The flat rolled steel trading community has been hit and hit hard by the filing of antidumping trade suits on galvanized, Galvalume (zinc-aluminum) . As one trader put it to us earlier this week, “Business as usual has been blown up for the traders.” A number of traders spoke to SMU about the scope of […]
We have two data sources for this report. These are the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve daily broad index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. As of August […]
China made a surprise devaluation of its currency today to bolster its faltering economy. The 2 percent devaluation of the yuan will make imports to China more expensive but will make exports more attractive to international traders. The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) issued a statement today concerning today’s currency move by the Chinese […]
In the first six months of this year bulk scrap exports were 6,893,000 metric tonnes for an annual rate of 13,786,000 tonnes, down by 9.1 percent from the first six months of last year. The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages for 2015 and on the twelve month monthly […]
The first thing we need to talk about is the rumor that we have heard from multiple sources that there will be a trade case announced on hot rolled coil this week. Our sources are telling us the information is a couple of weeks old and may change but the date being suggested in August […]
The following report was produced by the American Institute for International Steel (AIIS) regarding U.S. steel exports out of the United States to other countries. At the end of the AIIS press release is a table produced by Steel Market Update with an analysis of both total and flat rolled steel exports. Falls Church, VA. […]
Global manufacturing was relatively flat in July. Increases in the Eurozone, North America and Japan could not offset contractions in Greece and Asia. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI registered 51.0, unchanged from June and continuing its weakest reading in two years. Overall manufacturing output remained in the positive, above 50, range for the thirty-second […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) received this Letter to the Editor from a steel trading company executive providing an opinion on the recent slew of antidumping trade suits on flat rolled steels: First of all congratulations to Dave Phelps for his comments. As the longtime president of AIIS he has personally seen many years of domestic […]
SMU previously published this article with incorrect graphics, the corrected ones are below. Our apologies for the mistake. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first estimate of Q2 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Thursday. In the big picture, the change (delta) in GDP is equal to the […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of June 2015, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in June were 74,960,000 metric tons, an increase of 5.8 percent from the previous month and an increase of 0.5 percent […]
Steel Dynamics expressed concern about imports during the company’s second quarter earnings call. “On the trade front, we’re pleased the ITC has confirmed the flood of unfairly traded imports of corrosion-resistant sheets deal has materially reduced our shipments, pricing and profitability. I believe in fair trade, but the U.S. has become a dumping ground for […]
U.S. West Coast and Gulf ports seem to be in pretty good operating condition right now. The Port of Houston received over 6 million tons of steel imports in 2014, making it a record year for the port. In a “normal” year Houston can expect to see 3.5 to 4 million tons annually. Our Houston […]
Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through Q2 2015. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. The growth of GDP was unchanged in the Q2 at 7.0 percent which was faster than the 6.8 percent median forecast of 39 […]