The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel (HRC) The CME HR spot month future settlement reflects minimal price movements in physical markets this month as the […]
Currency markets have been anything but stable since our last update on January 25th and this shows up clearly in our examination of the currencies of the steel trading nations. Expectations of four rate hikes by the FOMC seem to have flown out the window. On February 3rd Josh Brown wrote, “Perhaps the biggest headline […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce updated foreign steel import license data this afternoon (February 23rd). Based on a daily license rate of 81,355 tons, February is trending toward 2.2-2.3 million tons. This is slightly lower than the 2.4 million ton pace we saw based on license data through the 16th of February. At 2.3 million […]
BlueScope Steel is one of only a handful of major steel companies around the world that is reporting profit. Underlying EBIT for the first half of FY 2016 was $166.5 million, up 35 percent year over year.. Commenting on the outlook for the company, CEO Paul O’Malley said, “Notwithstanding a challenging macroeconomic environment, we are […]
China’s Ministry of Commerce is calling for European Union cooperation to address the world’s iron and steel overcapacity. Current “trade protectionism” will only have a further negative impact on the industry said Commerce spokesperson Shen Danyang in response to new antidumping measures from the EU. At news conference last week, Shen said overcapacity in the […]
Source World Steel Association with Analysis by SMU. Global steel production in the 12 months of 2015 totaled 1.595 billion tonnes with a capacity of 2.33 billion tonnes. The WSA has made no downward revision to capacity as production fell in the course of 2015 making capacity utilization look increasingly dismal. Production in the month […]
Steel Market Update received trade data from one of our sources regarding Chinese imports and exports of various products including steel. The number that the world markets are discussing is steel exports which totaled 112,400,000 metric tons for calendar year 2015 (123,900,000 net tons). These are big numbers. The U.S. domestic steel industry, which is […]
On Monday there was a meeting between Russia and select OPEC members where they agreed to an oil output freeze at January levels in an effort to tackle a global supply glut. This was a closed door meeting in Doha between Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Qatar and Russia. Evidently there was a caveat that other members […]
Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of Chinese GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through the fourth quarter of 2015. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. The growth of GDP was 6.8 percent in the 4th quarter, and decelerating to its slowest pace since the […]
This report summarizes total steel supply annually from 2007 through 2015 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
In the twelve eleven months of 2015 bulk scrap exports were 12,955,000 metric tonnes, down by 9.7 percent from 2014 (14,280,000 net tons). The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages (3MMA) for 2015 and on the annual monthly average for previous years. The graph shows that exports declined for three […]
With the release of the December 2015 Final Census data we thought our readers would like to see not only how imports have fared over the past few years but, how those who are the largest exporters fared as well as those who are involved in the hot rolled, cold rolled and CORE (corrosion resistant) […]
China’s Ministry of Commerce says it will take will take definitive steps to cut steel production over the next five years by 100 to 150 million tonnes. China’s excess steel capacity has been has been estimated to be around 300 million tonnes. With domestic demand down, steel production has found its way into exports that […]
According to the latest data released from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute, apparent steel supply for the month of December 2015 was 7,878,660 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports and subtracting total US steel exports. December supply […]
Steel exports from the U.S. dropped 17.2 percent in 2015 to an annual total of 9.97 million net tons. The strong U.S. dollar and a recession in Canada contributed heavily to the decline, says the American Institute for International Steel. More than half of U.S. steel exports go to Canada each year. In 2015 the […]
After five years of negotiations, the twelve nations of the Trans Pacific Partnership signed the trade agreement in a ceremony in New Zealand on February 4. The signing was celebrated by the trade ministers but the agreement must still be officially approved by the individual nations. The countries have two years to ratify TPP through […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first estimate of Q4 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Monday. The annualized growth rate in the first estimate of the fourth quarter was 0.69 percent, down from 1.99 percent, in the 3rd quarter and down from 3.91 percent in Q2. Normally […]
Japan’s number one steelmaker Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corp (NSSMC) announced it has begun discussions to buy fourth-ranked rival Nisshin Steel. The target date for the proposed acquisition is March 2017. The global imbalance of steel supply and demand led Nisshan to consider rationalizing its iron and steel making by shutting down operations at […]
Dealers are predicting (positioning?) that ferrous scrap prices will move sideways as we move into the month of February. We have been told Turkey is not buying much scrap as they have scaled back production levels to about 70 percent. The current market is a supply driven market (as opposed to demand from the steel […]
China’s economy, the second largest in the world behind the U.S., grew at 6.9 percent in 2015. That was pretty close to its target of 7 percent for the year but also the slowest rate since 1990. Data released by the Chinese government shows fourth quarter growth at 6.8 percent. As recently as 2007 China’s […]
The following article is normally produced for our Premium level members, but we wanted to share it with our Executive level members as we think it is important and interesting as the world is flooded with excess steel capacity. If you find this article interesting you may be interested in upgrading your membership from Executive […]
On Tuesday, January 19, the Baltic Dry Index hit its lowest point ever, dropping to 363 points. The BDI tracks shipping rates for dry bulk cargos like iron ore, coal and grain and is considered a barometer for global steel trade. To put things in perspective, six months ago, on August 8, 2015, the Index […]
There are zombie factories in China. No, they are not making zombies but the factories themselves are the equivalent of the walking dead–steel mills hanging on by a thread, not making money, reducing workforces, but clinging to life when they are all but dead. The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) is painting a grim […]
According to the latest data released from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute, apparent steel supply for the month of November 2015 was 7,710,331 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports and subtracting total US steel exports. Foreign steel […]
Figure 1 shows historical gas and oil prices since January 2000. The daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $31.42 on January 11th, down from $36.31 on December 14th, according to the latest daily figure available from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). There have been reports in the press that oil broke […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
Net imports equals imports minus exports. We regard this as an important look at the overall trade picture and its effect on demand at the mill level. Figure 1 shows that net sheet product imports on a three month moving average (3MMA) basis at 546,093 tons in November continue to be more than double that […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce issued their Preliminary Determination on countervailing duties (CVD) of hot rolled coil from Brazil, Turkey and South Korea. Affirmative results were found against Brazil with CSN and Usiminas both receiving subsidy rates of 7.42 percent. All other Brazilian mills not named also received 7.42 percent subsidy rates. Turkey and South […]
The last couple of days have been hectic as we worked through the articles seen in tonight’s newsletter as well as numerous articles that we are working on various topics. The two headline articles are, of course, the next round of flat rolled price increases. The Nucor $20 hot rolled and $30 cold rolled and […]
In the first eleven months of 2015 bulk scrap exports were 11,762,000 tonnes for an annual rate of 12,831,000 tonnes, down by 17.5 percent from the first eleven months of 2014. The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages (3MMA) for 2015 and on the annual monthly average for previous […]