The following HRC and BUS futures market trading article was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC. Here is how Jack and Andre Marshall saw trading this week and what the forward curve looks like: HR futures continue to grind higher. While HR demand seems to be holding steady we are starting to see […]
January ferrous scrap exports totaled 607,272 net tons (550,909 metric tons) with Turkey, India, Mexico, Peru, and Taiwan being the top five countries receiving scrap from the United States. These five countries accounted for 67.3 percent of all scrap exports. Total January ferrous scrap exports were 53.9 percent lower than previous month and 47.1 percent […]
We thought our readers might enjoy looking at steel exports data out of the United States from an international perspective. The following is from an American Institute for International Steel (AIIS) press release sent out earlier today: Falls Church, Va. March 15, 2016. Steel exports in January regained some of the ground they lost in […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce (US DOC) is scheduled to release their Preliminary Determination of Antidumping (AD) against Australia, Brazil, Japan, Korea, the Netherlands, Turkey and the United Kingdom. This is the third and final Preliminary Determination to be announced on flat rolled steel products. Previously we saw rulings on corrosion resistant (galvanized/Galvalume) and cold […]
Licensed data for February was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on March 8th. At SMU we perform a detailed analysis of this data, an explanation of our methodology is given at the end of this write up. Total rolled product licensed imports in the single month of February […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2007 through January 2016 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
SMU sources have advised us that there were two vessels of pig iron sold out of Brazil to the United States at $200 per metric ton NOLA. This represents a $12 per ton increase over last sales ($188 per metric ton). Shipment of the pig iron is anticipated for April/May out of Brazil. Fifteen years […]
The following is a reprint of an article by Dr. Mark J. Perry in response to the Wall Street Journal article about the duties imposed on imports of cold-rolled steel from China that SMU publisher John Packard was quoted in. Dr. Perry is a Scholar at The American Enterprise Institute and Professor of Finance and […]
This week’s DOC preliminary duties on cold-rolled steel effectively shut down the U.S. market for China but has opened it for imports from Taiwan and Vietnam. Taiwan’s largest steel producer, China Steel Corp, said Thursday that it fully intends to take advantage of the penalties its rival steel producers in China now face. The company […]
With the US Department of Commerce making their initial (preliminary determination) ruling on antidumping (AD) we thought our readers might enjoy a deeper dive into understanding cold rolled exports out of the seven countries affected by the ruling. We decided to begin looking at CR imports beginning in 2010, which was one of the years […]
Reaction to the US Department of Commerce (DOC) preliminary duties on cold-rolled steel has been mixed, depending on what side of the antidumping determination the commentators are on. In the UK, the steel sector is readying itself for further onslaught of Chinese exports while its own steel exports to the U.S. are assigned dumping margins […]
Factory orders for manufactured goods grew 1.6 percent in January, following a 2.9 percent decrease in December and showing the largest increase since June. Durable goods orders rose 4.7 percent led by transportation equipment orders that were up 11.4 percent in January. Nondurable goods dropped 1.4 percent to $226.8 billion. Factory orders came in below […]
MID-SHIP Group sees evidence of a strong South American grain harvest helping to boost spot market freight levels for the dry cargo freight market. Oversupply of vessels remains a problem and vessel lay-up and scrapping is continuing. MID-SHIP anticipates continued market pressure due to oversupply and slowing demand growth. The Baltic Dry Index stood at […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel (HRC) The CME HR spot month future settlement reflects minimal price movements in physical markets this month as the […]
Currency markets have been anything but stable since our last update on January 25th and this shows up clearly in our examination of the currencies of the steel trading nations. Expectations of four rate hikes by the FOMC seem to have flown out the window. On February 3rd Josh Brown wrote, “Perhaps the biggest headline […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce updated foreign steel import license data this afternoon (February 23rd). Based on a daily license rate of 81,355 tons, February is trending toward 2.2-2.3 million tons. This is slightly lower than the 2.4 million ton pace we saw based on license data through the 16th of February. At 2.3 million […]
BlueScope Steel is one of only a handful of major steel companies around the world that is reporting profit. Underlying EBIT for the first half of FY 2016 was $166.5 million, up 35 percent year over year.. Commenting on the outlook for the company, CEO Paul O’Malley said, “Notwithstanding a challenging macroeconomic environment, we are […]
China’s Ministry of Commerce is calling for European Union cooperation to address the world’s iron and steel overcapacity. Current “trade protectionism” will only have a further negative impact on the industry said Commerce spokesperson Shen Danyang in response to new antidumping measures from the EU. At news conference last week, Shen said overcapacity in the […]
Source World Steel Association with Analysis by SMU. Global steel production in the 12 months of 2015 totaled 1.595 billion tonnes with a capacity of 2.33 billion tonnes. The WSA has made no downward revision to capacity as production fell in the course of 2015 making capacity utilization look increasingly dismal. Production in the month […]
Steel Market Update received trade data from one of our sources regarding Chinese imports and exports of various products including steel. The number that the world markets are discussing is steel exports which totaled 112,400,000 metric tons for calendar year 2015 (123,900,000 net tons). These are big numbers. The U.S. domestic steel industry, which is […]
On Monday there was a meeting between Russia and select OPEC members where they agreed to an oil output freeze at January levels in an effort to tackle a global supply glut. This was a closed door meeting in Doha between Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Qatar and Russia. Evidently there was a caveat that other members […]
Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of Chinese GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through the fourth quarter of 2015. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. The growth of GDP was 6.8 percent in the 4th quarter, and decelerating to its slowest pace since the […]
This report summarizes total steel supply annually from 2007 through 2015 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
In the twelve eleven months of 2015 bulk scrap exports were 12,955,000 metric tonnes, down by 9.7 percent from 2014 (14,280,000 net tons). The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages (3MMA) for 2015 and on the annual monthly average for previous years. The graph shows that exports declined for three […]
With the release of the December 2015 Final Census data we thought our readers would like to see not only how imports have fared over the past few years but, how those who are the largest exporters fared as well as those who are involved in the hot rolled, cold rolled and CORE (corrosion resistant) […]
China’s Ministry of Commerce says it will take will take definitive steps to cut steel production over the next five years by 100 to 150 million tonnes. China’s excess steel capacity has been has been estimated to be around 300 million tonnes. With domestic demand down, steel production has found its way into exports that […]
According to the latest data released from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute, apparent steel supply for the month of December 2015 was 7,878,660 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports and subtracting total US steel exports. December supply […]
Steel exports from the U.S. dropped 17.2 percent in 2015 to an annual total of 9.97 million net tons. The strong U.S. dollar and a recession in Canada contributed heavily to the decline, says the American Institute for International Steel. More than half of U.S. steel exports go to Canada each year. In 2015 the […]
After five years of negotiations, the twelve nations of the Trans Pacific Partnership signed the trade agreement in a ceremony in New Zealand on February 4. The signing was celebrated by the trade ministers but the agreement must still be officially approved by the individual nations. The countries have two years to ratify TPP through […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first estimate of Q4 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Monday. The annualized growth rate in the first estimate of the fourth quarter was 0.69 percent, down from 1.99 percent, in the 3rd quarter and down from 3.91 percent in Q2. Normally […]