China domestic demand is driving a tandem rise in iron ore and steel pricing. Iron ore prices are at their highest level since April as Chinese steel producers gobble ore to take advantage of high margins and surging summer steel prices. Although China is ahead of its target for reducing steel capacity this year, Chinese […]
Responses to two questions in Steel Market Update’s latest flat roll market trends analysis elicited a clear consensus from our participants: The Trump administration’s delay in acting on Section 232 could open the door to more foreign steel imports. But the government should not necessarily penalize foreign countries just because they export a high rate […]
Total imports of rolled steel increased by 16.9 percent, and sheet products by 18.4 percent, in the three months through July, compared with the prior three months, according to final license data for July released by the U.S. Commerce Department on Aug. 1. The three-month moving average (3MMA) of the total volume of rolled product […]
In this report, updated July 28, we examine the latest prices for iron ore, scrap, coking coal and zinc. To put the raw materials analysis into perspective, we begin with Figure 1, which shows the spread between Chicago #1 busheling and hot rolled coil ex works Indiana through July 21, both in $/net ton. On […]
As a monthly average, prices on all flat rolled steel products recovered in July following a dip in June. The month of July ended with SMU’s Price Momentum Indicator continuing to point higher as the market waits to see if and when the Trump administration will act on Section 232 trade measures that could further […]
China cut crude steel capacity by 42.39 million metric tons in the first half of 2017–about 84 percent of its 50 million metric ton goal for the year–but steel production rose 4.6 percent to 419.75 million tons during the same period. Shutdowns to capacity do not include the removal of 100 million tons of illegal […]
The following is a press release on steel exports from the American Institute for International Steel (AIIS) on July 27 2017: Falls Church, VA. July 27, 2017. Steel exports swelled 17.3 percent from April to May – and were up 25.2 percent from a year earlier – to surpass 1 million net tons. More than […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) has been in contact with our scrap sources who are advising us ferrous scrap prices will move higher as we get into August negotiations with the steel mills. We have been hearing scrap will move by a minimum of $15 per gross to $25 per gross ton. “Ferrous grades will certainly […]
Even conceding that a strong U.S. steel industry is vital to the nation’s security, it’s unclear whether America’s steelmakers really need an assist from the government in the form of new tariffs or quotas under Section 232. “Is the industry deserving of any kind of help? I believe you can make a good case that […]
Members of the House Ways & Means Committee will be briefed on the Section 232 steel investigation Thursday, July 27, according to Inside U.S. Trade. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is expected to provide data on steel imports and the U.S. steel industry to the committee, similar to a briefing of the Senate Finance panel last […]
Last week, Steel Market Update (SMU) completed our mid-July flat rolled market trends analysis. We invited 650 steel executives to participate. Of those responding, 48 percent were service centers, 41 percent were manufacturing companies, and 8 percent were trading companies, with steel mills and toll processors accounting for 4 percent each. One of the questions […]
Graphite electrodes used in electric arc furnaces are short in supply, causing concerns for EAF and ladle metallurgy (LMF) steel mills. Electrode manufacturers have reduced capacity in the past several years by an estimated 200,000 metric tons annually, according to some sources. China electrode producers had priced other companies out of the market by offering […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) released new foreign steel import license data on July 18. The trend for July is for steel imports to remain quite high, in the mid 3-million-net-ton range. We expect imports to be lower than June’s 3.9 million net tons, but above the 12-month and 3-month moving averages. Finished steel […]
China’s economic performance through the second quarter continued to be impressive. Chinese growth of steel production lagged the rest of the world in the first months of 2017, but the June output could indicate an unwelcome change. Once each quarter, we publish the official statistics for Chinese GDP, industrial production, consumer price inflation and fixed […]
Like the rest of the steel market, wholesalers of galvanized steel and other products used in HVAC applications are stuck in an uncomfortable wait-and-see mode as the Section 232 drama plays out in Washington. In the monthly steel conference call hosted today by the Heating, Air-conditioning, and Refrigeration Distributors International, HARDI members reported anxiety over […]
Since our last report, the price of crude oil has continued to decline and the price of natural gas has been stable. The number of operating rigs exploring for both oil and gas has continued to increase. The prices of oil and natural gas drive the consumption of energy-related steel products including oil country tubular […]
Autoworkers in the U.S. and Canada say any renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement must lead to higher wages for all three countries, reverse trade deficits with Mexico, and create new manufacturing jobs in the U.S. and Canada. In a joint statement, the United Autoworkers and Canadian association UNIFOR noted that the trade […]
We believe that misinformation (or lack of) about regional import volumes is often used to influence purchase decisions. Our intent with this analysis of tonnage by district of entry is to describe in detail what is going on in a company’s immediate neighborhood and thus provide a negotiating advantage for our premium subscribers. We are […]
Apparent supply is a proxy for market demand, and for hot rolled coil has been growing strongly this year. Imports continue to be an increasing factor in the sheet markets. There is a major difference in import market share for the four major sheet products. This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through May […]
The United States has called for a special meeting with South Korean trade officials to discuss modifying the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS). In a July 12 letter to the Korean trade minister, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer requested a special session in Washington to address problems with the agreement, including market access in Korea […]
This commentary by Daniel Pearson appeared in the June 2017 issue of The Conservative and is reprinted with permission. Daniel Pearson is with the Cato Institute where he is a trade specialist. Mr. Pearson is also the former chairman of the International Trade Commission (ITC). He will be one of our speakers at this year’s […]
U.S. steel mills managed to export just over one million net tons in May, according to just-released data by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Exports increased by 150,000 tons over April 2017 and were 203,000 tons greater than what was exported during May 2016. May 2017 is the first month to exceed one million tons […]
Australian steel and aluminum manufacturers were relieved to hear that Australia will be exempt from any U.S. import tariffs imposed under Section 232. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann lobbied U.S. officials at the G20 meetings arguing that Australia was a strong ally and exports relatively little of its steel and aluminum to […]
U.S. bourbon exports are on the table for a retaliatory tax should Section 232 cut off EU steel exports. Bourbon, made almost exclusively in Kentucky, accounted for 20 percent of the $654 million of U.S. spirits sold to the European Union in 2016, according to a recent article in The Guardian. Officials confirmed that U.S. […]
The final license data for June was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis system of the U.S. Commerce Department on July 5. An explanation of the methodology that we at SMU use to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. All volumes in this analysis are reported in […]
President Trump heads to Hamburg, Germany, today for the G20 summit with trade deficits and steel dumping on his mind. Trump is expected to receive strong opposition on any attempt to use the Section 232 steel investigation as leverage to influence trade talks. G20 leaders have been critical of the White House’s casting of national […]
John Harris is the former director of raw materials for ArcelorMittal. Currently, he is a consultant and speaker on global metallics, and he will be a speaker at this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference at the end of August. Mr. Harris and Philip Hoffman of Hoffman Iron & Steel have been conducting a friendly debate […]
The following article was sent to us by one of our steel and scrap trading sources located within China. He has been actively involved in the export of ferrous scrap out of China this year and understands where that market is headed right now (and why). Here is what he shared with Steel Market Update […]
On Thursday, Steel Market Update (SMU) published an article about the scrap markets entitled “Ferrous Scrap: Sideways in July?” In the article, John Harris, the former scrap buyer for ArcelorMittal and one of our speakers at this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference, gave his opinions on the future issues associated with the industry. On Friday, […]
The “will they or won’t they” drama around Section 232 and whether the Trump administration will place tariffs on steel imports is reaching a peak. The Department of Commerce is expected to announce its findings on the Section 232 investigation by the end of next week. According to CNBC, a draft of the report has been circulated […]